Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Freddy at 03/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 3.3% 3.5% 1.8% 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 5.6% 1.3% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 7.4% 2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 2.4% 0.5% 5.0% 0.2% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 5.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.0% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 1.5% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/12/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 3.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 4.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 9.1% 5.4% 3.9% 3.9% 4.8% 0.2% 2.9% 0.0% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 6.9% 4.1% 2.7% 3.5% 3.2% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 7.5% 4.4% 1.6% 1.6% 7.6% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 3.6% Logistic Regression 2.1% 10.7% 6.5% 6.2% 6.2% 2.0% 0.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.3% 14.7% 10.5% 9.1% 9.1% 18.9% 0.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.5% 10.0% 7.3% 6.2% 6.6% 12.7% 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.8% 14.5% 11.6% 8.8% 8.8% 32.2% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.8% 14.9% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 5.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.9% 6.7% 3.6% 1.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 21.5% 26.8% 23.2% 22.5% 22.5% 39.6% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.9% 20.0% 16.6% 15.5% 15.8% 26.6% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 33.2% 27.7% 26.8% 25.6% 25.6% 59.1% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.8% 25.9% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 20.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.2% 9.8% 4.9% 2.9% 3.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 31.5% 32.7% 29.3% 29.1% 26.9% 38.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.7% 25.0% 21.1% 20.3% 19.2% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.2% 31.5% 27.9% 27.4% 24.4% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 17.8% 33.9% 30.7% 30.7% 29.3% 31.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 15.6% 15.0% 11.0% 10.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 29.5% 39.4% 36.2% 35.9% 34.1% 36.7% 9.5% 16.6% 0.0% 6.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.0% 31.4% 29.1% 27.5% 26.3% 25.4% 6.6% 11.3% 0.0% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.5% 37.3% 34.4% 33.8% 31.1% 39.7% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 4.8% Logistic Regression 16.4% 41.5% 38.0% 38.0% 37.0% 33.6% 19.0% 17.3% 0.0% 7.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.7% 22.5% 13.3% 12.9% 9.5% 7.3% 1.6% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.8% 10.4% 6.9% 6.1% 5.3% 6.6% 1.4% 5.1% 1.6% 4.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.7% 14.4% 9.0% 8.4% 6.7% 6.8% 1.5% 4.4% 1.0% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.5% 7.0% 5.3% 3.7% 2.0% 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 1.4% 4.8% Logistic Regression 4.1% 13.9% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.0% 2.9% 5.0% 1.7% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.8% 19.6% 15.5% 19.7% 9.2% 20.4% 4.0% 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 10.1% 6.9% 6.2% 5.2% 8.8% 1.8% 8.7% 3.4% 9.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.1% 13.2% 9.7% 10.7% 6.5% 12.6% 2.5% 6.7% 2.3% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.4% 6.4% 5.3% 3.9% 1.8% 7.6% 0.0% 9.2% 4.1% 12.4% Logistic Regression 4.3% 13.7% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 9.9% 3.7% 8.1% 2.6% 7.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.5% 26.8% 16.9% 14.5% 9.6% 14.0% 1.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 17.9% 30.4% 26.9% 26.9% 21.8% 17.3% 5.6% 7.7% 0.0% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.0% 29.2% 23.5% 22.7% 17.7% 16.1% 4.3% 6.0% 0.0% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 19.3% 23.2% 17.7% 17.7% 10.9% 12.7% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 2.6% Logistic Regression 16.5% 37.6% 36.1% 36.1% 32.8% 21.8% 11.3% 8.6% 0.0% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.2% 24.4% 15.0% 17.9% 9.5% 13.0% 3.6% 4.3% 0.3% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 5.9% 8.9% 5.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 1.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.3% 14.0% 8.9% 9.3% 6.2% 7.3% 1.8% 2.6% 0.5% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.7% 6.0% 5.2% 3.5% 2.7% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.7% Logistic Regression 4.1% 11.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.2% 2.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.1% 18.0% 10.7% 14.2% 13.0% 25.8% 3.6% 5.8% 0.5% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 7.1% 4.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.7% 10.6% 6.7% 7.3% 6.7% 10.9% 1.6% 2.5% 0.3% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.0% 4.9% 4.6% 3.0% 2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 3.1% 9.2% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.8% 12.5% 8.1% 10.0% 14.4% 11.4% 2.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 8.3% 5.3% 4.6% 3.9% 6.4% 1.6% 3.0% 1.1% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 9.7% 6.2% 6.4% 7.3% 8.0% 1.8% 3.0% 0.7% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 4.6% 3.6% 2.5% 1.1% 3.7% 0.0% 2.2% 0.8% 2.8% Logistic Regression 3.0% 12.0% 7.0% 6.8% 6.7% 9.0% 3.2% 3.8% 1.4% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 8.7% 3.1% 3.9% 7.7% 6.0% 1.6% 2.8% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.3% 1.6% 0.3% 2.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 4.4% 1.8% 1.9% 3.1% 2.8% 0.7% 1.9% 0.2% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 3.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.9% 2.9% 0.2% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 8.0% 2.9% 3.9% 4.1% 5.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 6.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 9.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 3.7% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.9% 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 2.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.2% 11.4% 10.0% 6.2% 6.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 19.0% 11.2% 9.2% 9.0% 8.6% 9.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.0% 11.2% 9.4% 8.0% 7.7% 6.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.7% 11.3% 11.3% 10.8% 10.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.4% 11.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.0% 24.8% 22.7% 14.3% 11.6% 12.5% 4.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 38.2% 27.7% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 15.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.8% 26.7% 24.2% 21.4% 20.5% 14.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 55.9% 28.6% 28.6% 28.6% 28.6% 21.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 20.5% 26.8% 21.4% 21.4% 21.4% 10.3% 3.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.5% 14.2% 18.8% 23.2% 18.6% 20.2% 9.2% 12.7% 0.4% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 13.7% 19.2% 15.0% 13.4% 13.2% 9.1% 1.9% 2.4% 0.7% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 17.5% 16.2% 16.7% 15.0% 12.7% 4.3% 5.8% 0.5% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.7% 13.2% 13.2% 10.1% 9.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 11.7% 25.2% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 11.1% 3.8% 4.1% 1.2% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 8.8% 11.4% 15.7% 19.8% 12.7% 5.0% 14.3% 0.5% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 10.0% 23.5% 17.6% 16.0% 14.6% 11.6% 3.2% 4.8% 1.2% 2.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 18.5% 15.5% 15.9% 16.3% 11.9% 3.7% 7.9% 0.9% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 13.7% 11.6% 8.4% 5.7% 6.6% 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% Logistic Regression 10.9% 33.3% 23.7% 23.7% 23.5% 16.5% 6.3% 7.7% 2.2% 3.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 6.2% 6.5% 6.7% 8.9% 9.9% 3.3% 11.8% 0.5% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 14.8% 9.8% 8.3% 8.3% 8.6% 2.0% 5.2% 1.1% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.2% 11.9% 8.7% 7.7% 8.5% 9.0% 2.4% 7.4% 0.9% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 6.6% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.5% 0.0% 3.3% 0.5% 4.0% Logistic Regression 4.4% 22.9% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 11.8% 3.9% 7.1% 1.8% 4.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 5.0% 7.1% 9.7% 5.4% 4.1% 2.0% 6.2% 0.2% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 6.3% 19.7% 13.8% 12.5% 12.5% 13.9% 3.1% 6.1% 2.2% 5.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 14.7% 11.5% 11.5% 10.1% 10.6% 2.6% 6.1% 1.5% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.4% 10.3% 10.3% 7.6% 7.6% 10.1% 0.0% 4.2% 1.9% 6.9% Logistic Regression 6.3% 29.0% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.7% 6.1% 7.9% 2.4% 4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.9% 5.0% 1.7% 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 6.1% 0.0% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 4.9% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.8% 3.2% 1.8% 2.5% 3.6% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 2.7% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 4.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 8.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 5.4% 1.3% 3.0% 0.8% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.4% 4.7% 1.8% 3.4% 1.4% 0.9% 5.3% 0.1% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 9.3% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 7.0% 1.6% 4.3% 1.3% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 6.6% 4.7% 3.3% 3.6% 5.1% 1.4% 4.6% 0.9% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 3.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 3.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.9% 6.9% Logistic Regression 2.8% 14.9% 7.1% 6.7% 6.7% 11.0% 3.3% 6.1% 1.7% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 5.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.0% 2.8% 1.8% 4.8% 0.3% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 6.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 4.0% 0.8% 2.5% 0.7% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 5.9% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0% 3.6% 1.1% 3.3% 0.5% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 4.5% Logistic Regression 1.5% 10.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 6.3% 1.6% 3.9% 1.0% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 6.1% 8.1% 10.7% 5.4% 2.4% 3.3% 6.9% 0.6% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 7.2% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 6.9% 1.2% 6.7% 2.9% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 6.8% 5.0% 5.4% 3.6% 5.3% 1.9% 6.7% 2.1% 7.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 3.1% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 4.7% 0.0% 5.8% 3.6% 12.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 11.2% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 9.1% 2.5% 7.5% 2.3% 5.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.9% 5.4% 2.6% 1.6% 2.6% 1.4% 5.1% 0.1% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 6.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 5.1% 0.8% 3.9% 2.0% 10.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 3.6% 2.3% 1.9% 4.3% 1.0% 4.3% 1.3% 7.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 2.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 3.5% 0.0% 3.2% 2.6% 15.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 9.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 6.8% 1.6% 4.6% 1.3% 4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 9.4% 8.7% 7.0% 5.2% 13.8% 4.3% 15.0% 0.5% 3.9% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 15.2% 7.9% 7.0% 5.7% 13.3% 3.6% 8.9% 3.7% 11.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 13.2% 8.1% 7.0% 5.5% 13.5% 3.8% 10.9% 2.6% 8.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 8.9% 5.2% 3.8% 1.1% 6.7% 0.0% 6.3% 2.7% 11.2% Logistic Regression 4.3% 21.4% 10.5% 10.3% 10.3% 20.0% 7.3% 11.5% 4.7% 11.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.7% 11.0% 16.1% 10.6% 5.0% 14.6% 5.1% 14.0% 0.9% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 22.3% 12.5% 11.0% 9.5% 17.3% 5.0% 10.7% 5.5% 10.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 18.5% 13.6% 10.8% 8.0% 16.3% 5.0% 11.7% 3.9% 9.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.8% 15.4% 9.3% 6.4% 3.5% 9.4% 0.0% 7.4% 4.0% 10.2% Logistic Regression 4.8% 29.2% 15.6% 15.6% 15.6% 25.1% 9.9% 13.9% 7.0% 11.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 7.0% 5.9% 6.6% 5.5% 6.4% 2.7% 8.1% 1.0% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 18.5% 8.9% 7.5% 7.1% 14.3% 3.8% 7.2% 3.9% 9.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 14.6% 7.9% 7.1% 6.5% 11.6% 3.4% 7.5% 2.9% 7.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 11.6% 6.2% 3.3% 2.6% 6.3% 0.0% 4.5% 2.6% 10.1% Logistic Regression 3.1% 25.3% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 22.3% 7.6% 9.9% 5.3% 9.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 8.3% 11.2% 7.3% 1.9% 2.8% 4.1% 6.9% 0.7% 5.9% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 5.4% 1.2% 3.3% 1.5% 12.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.2% 4.8% 3.3% 1.5% 4.5% 2.1% 4.4% 1.2% 10.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% 16.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 9.8% 2.4% 4.6% 2.1% 8.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 8.5% 10.9% 6.5% 3.3% 7.6% 5.1% 12.5% 1.4% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.4% 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 9.2% 2.4% 5.8% 2.8% 15.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 8.4% 5.4% 3.6% 2.5% 8.6% 3.2% 8.0% 2.3% 12.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 4.1% 1.8% 19.7% Logistic Regression 1.5% 13.1% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.2% 4.8% 7.6% 3.8% 11.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 7.3% 6.3% 3.2% 1.8% 1.3% 2.3% 5.6% 0.3% 4.1% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 9.9% 2.2% 6.2% 4.4% 19.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 8.2% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 7.0% 2.1% 5.9% 3.0% 14.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 3.6% 0.0% 5.4% 3.9% 23.9% Logistic Regression 1.2% 13.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 16.3% 4.3% 6.9% 4.8% 15.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 4.0% 4.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 2.3% 0.2% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 6.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 6.7% 1.3% 3.1% 2.3% 13.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 5.0% 1.7% 2.8% 1.6% 9.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.0% 2.5% 2.4% 19.3% Logistic Regression 0.9% 9.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 11.3% 2.6% 3.8% 2.3% 7.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 4.2% 1.5% 1.7% 0.1% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 5.0% 1.0% 2.3% 1.6% 13.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 4.7% 1.1% 2.1% 1.0% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.8% 1.5% 19.9% Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 9.2% 1.9% 2.9% 1.7% 7.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 5.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 6.7% 1.3% 3.1% 1.9% 9.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 4.9% 1.3% 2.5% 1.4% 8.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 2.9% 1.8% 11.9% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 11.8% 2.7% 3.4% 2.1% 7.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 03/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 10.1% 3.8% 1.8% 1.1% 4.2% 3.9% 2.3% 0.6% 8.6% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 10.6% 2.2% 10.1% 5.8% 21.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 8.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 8.4% 2.7% 7.4% 4.0% 17.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 4.2% 0.0% 10.5% 5.7% 25.3% Logistic Regression 0.9% 12.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 17.0% 4.3% 9.6% 5.9% 18.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.7% 10.3% 8.6% 6.9% 4.1% 2.9% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 12.4% 22.0% 15.0% 14.1% 13.2% 12.6% 3.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.5% 18.0% 12.8% 11.7% 10.1% 9.3% 2.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.8% 15.6% 12.7% 11.0% 9.2% 6.4% 0.0% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% Logistic Regression 9.1% 28.3% 17.3% 17.3% 17.2% 18.8% 7.4% 3.3% 2.7% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 8.4% 6.6% 3.8% 5.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9% 0.5% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 10.0% 27.8% 18.3% 17.3% 15.0% 16.6% 5.4% 2.0% 2.7% 1.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.1% 21.3% 14.3% 12.8% 11.7% 11.6% 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.7% 18.1% 13.9% 12.0% 7.4% 7.1% 0.0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.2% Logistic Regression 8.3% 37.5% 22.6% 22.6% 22.6% 26.0% 10.7% 1.9% 3.5% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 5.9% 9.5% 5.3% 4.2% 1.6% 2.1% 3.7% 0.3% 7.5% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 7.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.7% 7.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 7.2% 5.4% 3.7% 3.2% 5.7% 2.0% 2.3% 1.0% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 2.3% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 2.0% 13.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 13.3% 3.9% 2.3% 1.8% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 16.6% 10.8% 6.1% 3.4% 8.2% 3.7% 7.3% 2.2% 21.4% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 15.0% 7.0% 6.2% 5.4% 17.2% 6.3% 5.4% 4.3% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 15.5% 8.2% 6.2% 4.7% 14.2% 5.4% 6.0% 3.6% 9.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 6.0% 2.9% 2.1% 0.4% 4.2% 0.0% 3.9% 2.4% 2.7% Logistic Regression 3.8% 24.0% 11.1% 10.4% 10.4% 30.3% 12.7% 6.9% 6.2% 5.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.5% 4.4% 1.2% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 5.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 2.0% 0.7% 3.0% 0.7% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 9.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 3.1% 0.6% 3.0% 0.8% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 174 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 7.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 7.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 14.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 4.5% 4.6% 3.2% 4.8% 1.4% 1.2% 2.8% 0.0% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 17.7% 18.5% 17.6% 14.5% 6.6% 1.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 3.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 4.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 8.1% 7.7% 7.1% 6.0% 5.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 5.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 5.5% 11.5% 7.0% 9.3% 4.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 3.3% 4.8% 3.1% 3.9% 6.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.9% 0.7% 5.9% 3.4% 3.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 1.1% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.8% 2.3% 6.6% 1.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.5% 1.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 2.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.9% 0.5% 4.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.7% 1.6% 21.2% 4.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 0.5% 7.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 7.5% 10.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 3.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.5% 2.2% 12.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.1% 0.7% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 33.7% 9.0% 12.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.8% 3.0% 4.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 28.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.7% 6.0% 17.3% 3.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.9% 8.5% 7.3% 6.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.8% 7.6% 10.6% 5.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.1% 6.3% 6.3% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.8% 10.6% 8.2% 8.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.1% 15.8% 30.0% 11.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 4.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.1% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.8% 8.4% 12.5% 6.0% 2.9% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.4% 7.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.6% 0.5% 8.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.8% 1.2% 3.4% 2.0% 1.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.2% 16.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.4% 6.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.4% 2.2% 6.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 2.6% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 3.9% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.1% 3.3% 8.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 2.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.3% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.4% 2.5% 7.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.9% 14.9% 20.8% 11.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 6.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 9.0% 10.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.9% 4.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 7.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.1% 24.9% 17.4% 7.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.4% 9.6% 6.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 5.8% 3.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.3% 3.0% 10.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.3% 1.0% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 0.7% 1.4% 5.5% 7.2% 0.1% 1.7% 11.8% 0.0% 6.0% RIPA Consensus 35.4% 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% 61.3% 67.3% 8.8% 27.9% 3.5% 9.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.9% 41.8% 42.1% 43.4% 43.2% 44.8% 6.4% 22.5% 2.3% 8.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 39.9% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 100.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.7% 8.1% Logistic Regression 30.8% 73.3% 73.3% 73.3% 71.0% 34.5% 17.7% 41.4% 6.2% 10.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.2% 1.9% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.9% 24.3% 24.9% 15.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 12.4% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.5% 11.6% 11.1% 5.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.5% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.2% 5.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.6% 22.2% 13.9% 10.8% 2.4% 2.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 5.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.2% 11.1% 7.6% 6.6% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.3% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.8% 6.6% 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 7.1% 3.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 98 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 5.1% 4.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.5% 2.9% 2.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 5.2% 2.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 5.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/12/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.6% 12.5% 13.5% 13.8% 3.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 171 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.2% 9.6% 13.8% 16.3% 5.8% 8.3% 2.0% 3.9% 0.2% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 21.4% 28.1% 27.6% 27.6% 24.4% 9.9% 2.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 24.4% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 16.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 18.3% 36.1% 35.1% 35.1% 32.8% 10.6% 4.0% 4.6% 0.9% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.1% 23.9% 16.1% 19.1% 12.7% 9.5% 3.5% 6.9% 0.2% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 12.1% 21.7% 19.1% 18.6% 15.8% 6.5% 1.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.0% 22.4% 18.1% 18.7% 14.7% 7.5% 2.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.1% 13.7% 12.1% 11.1% 7.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.0% 29.7% 26.1% 26.1% 24.3% 7.7% 2.6% 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.1% 34.1% 23.3% 20.0% 10.5% 17.6% 5.4% 8.0% 0.2% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 26.5% 35.1% 33.3% 33.3% 26.3% 12.8% 3.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.3% 34.7% 30.0% 28.9% 21.0% 14.4% 4.1% 4.6% 0.6% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 30.2% 27.1% 26.2% 26.2% 14.7% 9.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 22.8% 43.0% 40.5% 40.5% 37.9% 16.6% 7.1% 5.5% 1.5% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 9.7% 15.1% 10.9% 6.8% 4.1% 4.7% 18.0% 0.5% 14.8% RIPA Consensus 7.7% 23.6% 17.4% 16.1% 14.8% 13.0% 4.0% 5.5% 1.4% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.4% 19.0% 16.6% 14.3% 12.1% 10.0% 4.2% 9.6% 1.1% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.1% 14.0% 9.8% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.2% 33.3% 25.1% 25.1% 23.1% 19.6% 8.1% 8.6% 2.7% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 14.0% 10.0% 5.9% 1.3% 6.3% 2.5% 10.3% 0.6% 6.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 6.5% 4.1% 2.7% 1.1% 2.8% 0.9% 3.8% 0.2% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 5.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 9.0% 7.4% 5.0% 2.2% 3.4% 1.8% 7.4% 0.3% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 3.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 0.0% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 5.8% 9.6% 3.8% 1.5% 3.4% 1.4% 10.4% 0.6% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 2.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 3.6% 0.2% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.5% 10.2% 11.1% 8.5% 5.8% 9.0% 3.3% 4.7% 0.2% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 5.7% 4.3% 4.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.8% 7.2% 6.5% 5.6% 4.0% 3.8% 1.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 8.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 6.1% 7.0% 3.3% 3.5% 1.8% 0.9% 3.2% 0.1% 4.6% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 3.2% 3.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.8% 9.6% 6.9% 2.2% 1.6% 4.1% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 4.3% 2.9% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.5% 8.1% 6.6% 5.4% 2.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.7% 44.5% 25.4% 22.0% 20.1% 28.5% 5.1% 5.7% 0.2% 0.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 43.3% 44.9% 42.1% 29.1% 17.8% 27.2% 5.5% 6.6% 0.2% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 47.7% 37.6% 33.0% 33.0% 32.0% 23.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 46.2% 40.0% 36.0% 31.6% 27.2% 24.4% 3.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.8% 38.8% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 32.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 29.6% 36.4% 30.2% 30.2% 28.3% 13.5% 5.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.8% 51.3% 46.0% 37.1% 16.8% 41.7% 26.5% 37.4% 7.1% 38.8% RIPA Consensus 25.2% 39.8% 29.8% 27.4% 25.9% 14.7% 2.7% 3.4% 0.6% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.4% 43.6% 35.1% 30.5% 22.9% 23.7% 10.6% 14.7% 2.7% 13.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 30.7% 36.2% 25.6% 20.7% 19.3% 13.7% 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 19.7% 43.4% 34.0% 34.0% 32.6% 15.7% 5.3% 5.0% 1.1% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.4% 64.2% 55.4% 46.9% 39.7% 51.3% 39.3% 43.6% 4.3% 32.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Freddy at 02/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 45.6% 43.0% 30.9% 15.7% 36.8% 31.9% 42.9% 11.9% 51.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 02/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.5% 41.0% 39.5% 26.9% 16.9% 26.8% 15.4% 46.7% 14.7% 55.8% RIPA Consensus 29.8% 65.1% 52.9% 48.2% 43.8% 55.4% 27.9% 32.0% 20.8% 22.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.0% 57.0% 48.4% 41.1% 34.8% 45.9% 23.7% 36.9% 18.7% 33.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.8% 55.9% 40.5% 31.2% 23.7% 38.7% 0.0% 27.9% 14.0% 16.7% Logistic Regression 31.7% 74.3% 65.2% 65.2% 63.9% 72.2% 55.7% 36.1% 27.6% 28.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 02/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 40.8% 29.9% 26.6% 17.0% 27.8% 22.5% 47.6% 15.4% 50.6% RIPA Consensus 13.2% 52.8% 36.6% 34.1% 28.2% 47.8% 26.3% 29.1% 18.0% 16.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.9% 48.7% 34.3% 31.6% 24.4% 41.1% 25.0% 35.2% 17.1% 27.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.8% 39.5% 21.1% 16.1% 6.3% 25.6% 0.0% 25.0% 8.8% 8.4% Logistic Regression 16.6% 66.1% 52.1% 52.1% 50.1% 69.9% 52.5% 33.2% 27.2% 23.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------