Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Invest at 03/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Invest at 03/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 71 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Invest at 03/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 63 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Invest at 03/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 62 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Invest at 03/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Invest at 03/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 67 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 56 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 68 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 93 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 4.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 15.2% 4.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.7% 4.4% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.0% 6.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.5% 3.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.3% 2.8% 3.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 27.6% 14.5% 8.4% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.2% 10.6% 6.7% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.0% 18.6% 10.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.3% 10.5% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 03/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.3% 15.5% 14.8% 10.7% 2.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 40.3% 41.3% 29.4% 29.4% 24.9% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.2% 32.6% 24.5% 23.1% 17.5% 14.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.9% 47.9% 30.4% 30.4% 24.4% 32.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 19.6% 34.7% 28.3% 28.3% 25.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 37.6% 29.8% 28.5% 23.2% 9.4% 1.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 47.2% 60.8% 48.9% 48.2% 44.7% 28.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 44.0% 50.4% 42.1% 39.8% 32.9% 19.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.8% 65.8% 47.4% 46.0% 41.7% 38.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 28.7% 55.8% 50.4% 50.4% 47.7% 17.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.9% 54.2% 30.4% 20.1% 24.5% 16.1% 7.1% 13.4% 2.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 63.2% 75.9% 70.3% 70.3% 61.1% 38.6% 8.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 55.0% 68.6% 57.0% 53.6% 48.9% 31.1% 7.7% 9.2% 0.7% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 79.2% 79.6% 71.3% 71.3% 55.0% 42.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 47.1% 72.2% 69.4% 69.4% 67.3% 35.2% 16.1% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 41.8% 46.9% 48.4% 29.1% 17.8% 24.0% 35.5% 23.9% 0.5% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 63.1% 90.5% 85.2% 82.5% 72.8% 63.6% 23.4% 22.7% 12.7% 3.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 56.0% 76.0% 72.8% 64.7% 54.4% 50.4% 27.4% 23.1% 8.6% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 71.0% 92.9% 83.2% 77.9% 60.0% 59.9% 0.0% 22.8% 8.1% 1.8% Logistic Regression 55.3% 88.2% 87.1% 87.1% 85.6% 67.3% 46.8% 22.6% 17.4% 4.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.2% 48.7% 33.1% 24.4% 15.6% 26.8% 34.1% 26.3% 3.2% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 28.3% 73.6% 57.3% 50.8% 46.0% 46.6% 14.6% 22.0% 9.9% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.5% 65.3% 49.2% 42.0% 35.9% 40.0% 21.0% 23.4% 7.6% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 32.4% 72.6% 48.9% 35.8% 29.1% 40.2% 0.0% 23.7% 6.3% 2.4% Logistic Regression 24.1% 74.7% 65.8% 65.8% 63.0% 53.0% 29.2% 20.2% 13.4% 5.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.6% 35.1% 36.2% 21.4% 15.6% 16.8% 24.1% 29.4% 1.8% 7.7% RIPA Consensus 24.7% 74.3% 58.1% 49.2% 46.7% 61.4% 23.4% 38.6% 25.0% 11.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.6% 61.1% 50.8% 39.9% 36.3% 46.5% 23.6% 35.5% 17.2% 10.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.2% 72.1% 51.0% 33.2% 29.2% 54.2% 0.0% 43.4% 23.7% 12.5% Logistic Regression 22.1% 76.4% 65.2% 65.2% 64.2% 68.6% 46.9% 33.8% 26.3% 9.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.5% 42.8% 36.8% 24.6% 15.2% 19.2% 30.4% 39.5% 7.6% 29.5% RIPA Consensus 17.4% 59.5% 41.7% 35.9% 27.4% 49.0% 16.9% 30.0% 19.0% 14.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.7% 53.9% 40.0% 32.1% 23.3% 39.0% 21.3% 33.1% 15.2% 19.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.0% 55.0% 36.9% 26.3% 10.1% 39.9% 0.0% 34.6% 19.1% 15.8% Logistic Regression 16.8% 64.1% 46.6% 45.6% 44.7% 58.0% 33.8% 25.4% 19.0% 13.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Judy at 02/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.5% 53.0% 35.8% 8.9% 7.9% 23.5% 24.0% 44.2% 10.6% 48.6% RIPA Consensus 14.6% 60.8% 41.7% 37.7% 25.9% 57.9% 27.1% 44.0% 30.3% 28.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.8% 58.2% 39.7% 28.0% 19.9% 46.4% 26.0% 44.0% 23.7% 35.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.5% 55.1% 34.1% 27.0% 5.7% 42.5% 0.0% 46.8% 24.7% 28.0% Logistic Regression 15.6% 66.6% 49.4% 48.3% 46.2% 73.3% 54.3% 41.2% 35.8% 29.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   15p at 02/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.3% 34.8% 28.7% 18.7% 9.1% 22.1% 21.3% 44.1% 9.2% 53.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------