Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Sixteen intensity image current Sixteen RI diff image

 


Sixteen at 03/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 12 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 20 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 26 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 31 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 21 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 38 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 40 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 55 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.3% 6.8% 2.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 28.6% 6.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.5% 6.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.2% 7.7% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 14.0% 5.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.7% 21.8% 11.6% 8.3% 4.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 32.4% 22.2% 16.2% 16.1% 12.5% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.1% 22.0% 14.6% 13.5% 9.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.4% 22.7% 16.1% 15.9% 9.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 22.3% 21.7% 16.3% 16.3% 15.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 40.0% 49.5% 35.4% 20.4% 20.9% 4.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 55.0% 59.0% 59.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 49.9% 55.8% 51.1% 46.1% 38.5% 17.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 67.0% 56.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 42.9% 61.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 39.1% 58.6% 57.7% 40.9% 36.5% 18.7% 9.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 69.5% 85.1% 85.1% 85.1% 75.9% 46.3% 14.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 59.3% 76.2% 75.9% 70.3% 62.7% 37.1% 13.0% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 79.6% 84.0% 84.0% 84.0% 67.5% 46.2% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 59.4% 86.1% 86.1% 86.1% 84.3% 46.4% 29.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.3% 45.5% 47.3% 41.8% 34.0% 19.1% 31.1% 8.2% 1.8% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 47.2% 67.4% 59.9% 57.3% 55.8% 40.7% 10.5% 10.8% 3.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 41.9% 60.0% 55.7% 52.1% 48.5% 33.4% 17.3% 9.9% 3.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 57.5% 64.6% 52.0% 46.8% 45.3% 41.2% 0.0% 10.4% 2.2% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 37.0% 70.1% 67.9% 67.9% 66.2% 40.1% 21.0% 11.2% 5.1% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.3% 14.2% 23.0% 21.3% 14.7% 11.7% 22.9% 12.5% 0.9% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 17.4% 41.3% 30.2% 27.8% 25.3% 27.8% 5.7% 6.5% 2.2% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.0% 32.2% 27.8% 25.6% 21.8% 22.3% 11.4% 8.5% 1.7% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.9% 36.2% 26.7% 22.0% 17.0% 27.4% 0.0% 6.2% 1.5% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 12.8% 46.4% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 28.1% 11.4% 6.8% 2.9% 0.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 22.8% 25.5% 22.9% 18.6% 24.1% 25.7% 23.5% 40.4% 1.0% 8.2% RIPA Consensus 42.4% 72.2% 64.8% 62.9% 54.9% 60.5% 25.7% 34.8% 17.8% 2.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.9% 56.6% 50.7% 48.1% 44.6% 48.9% 24.9% 36.6% 12.1% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 55.3% 69.6% 61.2% 57.5% 42.1% 52.5% 0.0% 30.9% 11.2% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 29.6% 74.7% 68.3% 68.3% 67.8% 68.5% 51.4% 38.8% 24.3% 3.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kevin at 03/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.4% 43.8% 43.3% 34.9% 33.0% 42.9% 47.7% 52.0% 7.0% 30.1% RIPA Consensus 37.2% 78.6% 67.8% 64.1% 55.2% 73.2% 36.6% 58.0% 41.6% 17.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.8% 75.4% 60.0% 52.7% 36.5% 62.5% 0.0% 50.7% 24.8% 13.6%
Logistic Regression 30.5% 81.9% 75.5% 75.5% 73.9% 83.9% 73.3% 65.2% 58.3% 22.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sixteen at 03/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.9% 55.9% 34.5% 22.2% 14.7% 28.1% 37.1% 49.8% 17.6% 45.9% RIPA Consensus 16.0% 66.3% 44.4% 43.5% 30.0% 61.0% 31.3% 57.0% 40.6% 29.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.5% 62.8% 41.1% 36.4% 24.9% 50.0% 33.2% 54.6% 32.9% 34.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.2% 60.6% 30.6% 28.8% 5.5% 43.5% 0.0% 51.0% 24.8% 26.2%
Logistic Regression 17.7% 72.0% 58.2% 58.2% 54.5% 78.5% 62.6% 63.0% 56.5% 31.9%
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