Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Ilsa at 04/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 112 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 174 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 181 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 172 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 33.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 53.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 174 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.8% 16.6% 10.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 40.6% 27.7% 23.3% 23.3% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.3% 23.9% 19.1% 16.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 59.6% 31.1% 28.6% 28.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.6% 24.2% 18.1% 18.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 53.0% 45.0% 42.7% 29.7% 16.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 45.8% 48.3% 45.8% 45.8% 32.5% 40.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.1% 47.1% 44.7% 40.4% N/A 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 62.3% 49.5% 48.2% 48.2% 25.2% 62.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 29.3% 47.1% 43.4% 43.4% 39.7% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/12/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 50.6% 64.6% 54.3% 40.2% 26.5% 14.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 54.9% 63.1% 63.0% 63.0% 49.0% 60.1% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 53.4% 63.6% 60.1% 55.4% 41.4% 44.8% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 69.9% 64.3% 64.3% 64.3% 39.7% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 39.9% 62.0% 61.8% 61.8% 58.2% 41.8% 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 44.6% 60.1% 56.1% 41.6% 28.8% 47.0% 28.3% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 40.1% 52.7% 52.2% 52.2% 34.3% 49.0% 10.4% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 41.5% 55.1% 53.5% 48.6% 32.4% 48.3% 16.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 51.0% 51.5% 51.5% 51.5% 18.9% 62.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 29.1% 53.9% 53.0% 53.0% 49.7% 36.1% 20.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 174 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 45.8% 50.4% 46.4% 41.1% 27.2% 55.8% 38.9% 9.0% 0.5% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 29.8% 54.8% 54.8% 54.8% 33.4% 37.2% 8.7% 14.3% 4.2% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.1% 53.3% 52.0% 50.2% 31.3% 43.4% 18.8% 12.5% 2.9% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.1% 52.5% 52.5% 52.5% 12.7% 42.0% 0.0% 14.6% 4.7% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.5% 57.1% 57.1% 57.1% 54.2% 32.4% 17.5% 14.0% 3.7% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 50.9% 67.8% 56.9% 48.6% 36.3% 59.5% 37.6% 22.1% 2.9% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 76.3% 91.3% 91.3% 91.3% 68.7% 70.3% 30.0% 38.4% 18.9% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 67.8% 83.4% 79.8% 77.0% 57.8% 66.7% 32.5% 33.0% 13.5% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 84.3% 94.5% 94.5% 94.5% 51.0% 70.1% 0.0% 36.2% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 68.3% 88.0% 88.0% 88.0% 86.3% 70.5% 59.9% 40.7% 22.4% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ilsa at 04/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.3% 51.3% 34.0% 32.6% 20.1% 53.5% 36.2% 52.3% 12.6% 17.3% RIPA Consensus 35.3% 65.5% 64.6% 64.6% 45.6% 53.9% 25.6% 48.4% 24.2% 9.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.3% 60.7% 54.4% 53.9% 37.1% 53.7% 29.1% 49.6% 20.3% 11.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 36.2% 55.7% 54.4% 54.4% 19.0% 41.8% 0.0% 43.4% 17.1% 6.3% Logistic Regression 34.4% 75.3% 74.8% 74.8% 72.2% 65.9% 51.2% 53.4% 31.2% 11.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.5% 41.6% 42.2% 31.2% 15.2% 28.8% 25.3% 51.2% 10.6% 13.4% RIPA Consensus 17.2% 56.4% 46.0% 44.4% 37.3% 47.1% 21.3% 41.7% 17.6% 22.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.2% 51.4% 44.7% 40.0% 29.9% 41.0% 22.6% 44.8% 15.2% 19.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.9% 45.1% 28.4% 25.2% 14.0% 34.5% 0.0% 36.8% 11.1% 22.9% Logistic Regression 19.4% 67.6% 63.6% 63.6% 60.5% 59.7% 42.7% 46.6% 24.2% 22.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.1% 35.8% 18.6% 7.6% 6.2% 14.6% 11.9% 44.8% 5.1% 52.3% RIPA Consensus 8.6% 39.1% 26.2% 24.0% 20.1% 33.6% 11.8% 27.9% 14.3% 18.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.7% 37.9% 23.6% 18.5% 15.4% 27.2% 11.8% 33.5% 11.2% 29.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.3% 29.8% 17.5% 13.1% 5.9% 23.9% 0.0% 24.7% 13.3% 23.6% Logistic Regression 8.8% 48.3% 34.8% 34.8% 34.2% 43.3% 23.6% 31.0% 15.3% 13.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 17.6% 34.6% 23.7% 11.5% 6.4% 16.1% 38.9% 17.1% 33.8% RIPA Consensus 8.7% 35.8% 22.3% 19.2% 18.3% 29.6% 9.2% 22.7% 9.3% 12.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.0% 29.7% 26.4% 20.7% 16.0% 21.8% 11.5% 28.0% 11.9% 19.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.0% 27.6% 15.1% 8.9% 7.7% 21.2% 0.0% 20.9% 7.6% 14.5% Logistic Regression 8.5% 44.0% 29.6% 29.6% 28.8% 38.0% 18.4% 24.5% 11.1% 10.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 32.9% 31.9% 16.7% 6.7% 24.9% 14.1% 49.7% 9.3% 48.8% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 16.5% 8.3% 6.7% 6.1% 17.0% 4.0% 19.3% 8.5% 32.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 21.9% 16.1% 10.0% 6.3% 19.6% 7.3% 29.4% 8.7% 37.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 10.4% 5.4% 2.6% 1.4% 12.2% 0.0% 19.1% 9.4% 44.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 22.6% 11.1% 10.8% 10.8% 21.8% 8.0% 19.5% 7.6% 19.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.9% 42.6% 35.7% 23.0% 17.4% 43.6% 28.1% 54.0% 22.2% 61.2% RIPA Consensus 6.1% 37.7% 22.1% 20.3% 15.8% 33.8% 12.4% 31.5% 16.3% 41.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.9% 39.3% 26.6% 21.2% 16.3% 37.1% 17.6% 39.0% 18.2% 47.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.4% 29.5% 13.9% 10.2% 2.9% 21.1% 0.0% 27.9% 12.4% 45.0% Logistic Regression 6.7% 46.0% 30.4% 30.4% 28.8% 46.6% 24.9% 35.2% 20.2% 37.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.9% 40.7% 45.2% 32.2% 13.7% 44.8% 21.8% 54.4% 18.3% 59.6% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 32.1% 19.9% 18.8% 14.5% 25.5% 7.3% 22.1% 8.5% 32.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.6% 34.9% 28.3% 23.2% 14.2% 31.9% 12.1% 32.8% 11.7% 41.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.5% 24.1% 13.2% 11.0% 3.5% 18.0% 0.0% 20.3% 6.3% 37.5% Logistic Regression 8.5% 40.1% 26.5% 26.5% 25.5% 33.0% 14.7% 23.9% 10.7% 28.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.3% 40.1% 31.5% 10.9% 7.2% 26.5% 19.3% 44.5% 17.0% 58.5% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 26.6% 15.3% 13.7% 11.3% 23.5% 6.9% 23.6% 9.3% 31.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.7% 31.1% 20.7% 12.7% 9.9% 24.5% 11.0% 30.5% 11.8% 40.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.4% 17.0% 8.7% 5.8% 1.4% 15.1% 0.0% 22.7% 8.1% 38.5% Logistic Regression 6.4% 36.2% 21.9% 21.6% 21.2% 31.9% 13.9% 24.4% 10.5% 24.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.3% 26.7% 18.2% 11.7% 3.8% 10.6% 10.8% 44.6% 13.7% 59.0% RIPA Consensus 5.4% 27.2% 15.1% 12.7% 10.9% 22.1% 5.7% 20.1% 9.5% 28.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 27.0% 16.0% 12.3% 8.5% 18.2% 7.4% 28.2% 10.9% 38.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 20.1% 11.2% 6.4% 2.8% 15.4% 0.0% 19.5% 9.0% 34.8% Logistic Regression 5.5% 34.4% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 28.8% 11.4% 20.6% 10.0% 23.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 42.4% 45.7% 33.5% 16.7% 10.2% 47.3% 18.9% 51.9% 11.1% 60.4% RIPA Consensus 9.3% 47.5% 31.2% 29.6% 23.0% 38.0% 17.4% 35.3% 18.1% 35.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.3% 46.9% 31.9% 25.2% 18.7% 41.1% 17.9% 40.8% 15.7% 43.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.5% 35.3% 16.4% 13.1% 3.1% 19.8% 0.0% 31.7% 9.6% 31.6% Logistic Regression 12.1% 59.7% 46.0% 46.0% 42.9% 56.3% 34.8% 38.9% 26.6% 38.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.7% 47.4% 33.4% 21.3% 12.2% 30.9% 14.8% 47.0% 10.0% 62.7% RIPA Consensus 14.8% 63.3% 46.4% 43.4% 34.5% 58.8% 32.3% 50.9% 35.0% 53.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.8% 58.0% 42.0% 36.0% 27.0% 49.4% 26.5% 49.6% 26.6% 56.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.3% 53.3% 29.8% 23.9% 9.1% 39.1% 0.0% 46.5% 22.2% 46.5% Logistic Regression 17.4% 73.4% 63.0% 63.0% 60.0% 78.4% 64.7% 55.3% 47.8% 60.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 04/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.0% 18.2% 27.0% 13.5% 6.7% 3.9% 7.0% 32.4% 12.2% 51.9% RIPA Consensus 4.2% 36.0% 19.3% 16.1% 13.6% 38.3% 16.0% 34.0% 19.3% 45.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.1% 30.0% 21.8% 15.2% 11.2% 26.8% 12.9% 33.4% 16.9% 47.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 25.8% 11.3% 5.9% 2.1% 21.0% 0.0% 34.2% 13.9% 43.9% Logistic Regression 5.2% 46.2% 27.3% 26.4% 25.0% 55.5% 31.9% 33.8% 24.7% 46.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------