Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Fabien at 05/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 3.4% 4.8% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 3.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.4% 3.4% 0.7% 2.2% 0.0% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 4.1% 3.1% 0.4% 1.1% 2.4% 1.3% 6.8% 0.0% 6.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 2.9% 0.5% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 4.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 11.8% 4.6% 2.3% 2.1% 11.6% 5.1% 10.0% 0.2% 6.4% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 8.2% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 11.8% 4.5% 5.3% 4.8% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.4% 4.1% 3.0% 2.9% 11.7% 4.6% 6.8% 3.2% 7.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.7% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 8.4% Logistic Regression 1.9% 14.6% 6.5% 5.8% 5.8% 21.9% 8.9% 6.7% 5.8% 7.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.1% 9.4% 4.7% 2.7% 4.2% 1.9% 3.0% 12.9% 0.6% 26.9% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.7% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 7.0% 2.3% 5.8% 3.2% 13.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 6.2% 2.9% 2.0% 2.5% 5.2% 2.5% 8.2% 2.3% 18.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 4.3% 2.3% 17.7% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 13.2% 4.6% 7.4% 4.1% 10.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 3.3% 0.1% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 6.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.6% 0.3% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 10.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 4.7% 4.0% 0.7% 1.1% 1.8% 2.2% 8.0% 0.1% 15.9% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% 2.3% 1.1% 3.5% 0.6% 7.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 4.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 5.0% 1.3% 2.1% 1.2% 3.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 10.8% 6.8% 3.9% 2.4% 7.3% 5.7% 10.7% 0.6% 12.1% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.0% 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 3.7% 2.2% 4.1% 0.4% 5.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 3.7% 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 5.5% 5.9% 2.5% 3.0% 7.2% 3.8% 3.1% 0.2% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 2.1% 0.8% 1.0% 2.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 3.9% 4.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 6.8% 0.1% 6.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 2.3% 0.0% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 28.3% 13.1% 6.5% 5.7% 13.2% 10.0% 14.4% 0.6% 8.6% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 10.7% 4.9% 2.6% 2.4% 5.2% 3.5% 5.1% 0.3% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 18.5% 19.9% 11.2% 9.5% 19.0% 14.4% 12.3% 0.5% 11.2% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 7.1% 6.9% 4.1% 3.5% 6.7% 4.8% 4.2% 0.1% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 10.1% 11.0% 6.5% 5.4% 6.1% 9.2% 8.5% 1.3% 7.2% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 4.5% 4.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% 0.5% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 24.2% 19.4% 7.1% 6.4% 13.5% 6.2% 14.4% 0.3% 7.7% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.2% 6.8% 2.6% 2.4% 5.0% 2.1% 4.9% 0.1% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.6% 13.3% 17.8% 11.5% 5.7% 4.4% 8.1% 14.1% 0.4% 7.1% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 6.8% 6.9% 4.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 5.0% 0.3% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 6.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 4.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 13.3% 11.1% 5.0% 3.0% 7.8% 8.9% 11.1% 0.3% 5.5% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 5.8% 4.2% 2.2% 1.5% 3.4% 3.1% 4.0% 0.1% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 3.2% 4.6% 0.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.1% 11.0% 0.0% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 3.9% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 5.4% 9.0% 5.1% 3.8% 1.8% 3.5% 13.5% 0.3% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 3.3% 3.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 4.9% 0.1% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 2.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 3.8% 0.2% 2.8% 0.1% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 2.7% 0.0% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 5.5% 2.8% 2.5% 1.2% 2.1% 0.7% 3.0% 0.1% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 8.6% 3.1% 2.2% 1.4% 3.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 0.6% 5.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 5.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 2.5% 3.5% 2.6% 2.1% 3.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 0.9% 4.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 1.6% 1.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 5.1% 6.0% 2.8% 1.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 5.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 9.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.9% 2.3% 6.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 4.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 17.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 5.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 1.0% 4.3% 0.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 9.2% 17.9% 11.0% 9.7% 9.4% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.6% 12.2% 8.7% 6.7% 7.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.0% 19.9% 11.4% 8.8% 8.8% 35.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 15.9% 10.6% 10.6% 9.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 11.6% 12.9% 8.3% 7.4% 7.1% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.7% 14.1% 9.1% 7.4% 7.4% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.6% 11.7% 7.4% 7.4% 6.8% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 12.9% 8.5% 6.8% 4.4% 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 17.9% 38.3% 31.2% 31.2% 29.6% 33.5% 4.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.0% 29.8% 23.6% 23.1% 21.1% 22.8% 3.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.5% 37.1% 25.3% 25.3% 25.3% 47.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.4% 39.5% 37.2% 37.2% 33.8% 19.9% 9.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.9% 9.7% 15.4% 9.4% 5.0% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 17.9% 33.0% 28.0% 28.0% 26.9% 27.8% 3.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.8% 25.2% 23.8% 21.8% 19.5% 20.5% 2.9% 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.3% 31.1% 24.7% 24.7% 24.7% 39.4% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.4% 34.9% 31.3% 31.3% 29.0% 16.3% 6.7% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = kts, MPI = kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 44.8% 63.4% 63.2% 63.2% 61.7% 52.4% 12.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 59.8% 67.3% 67.3% 67.3% 67.3% 63.8% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 29.7% 59.5% 59.0% 59.0% 56.1% 41.0% 24.1% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.6% 21.4% 17.8% 15.1% 9.8% 9.3% 4.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 58.8% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 83.8% 62.0% 19.3% 24.9% 0.0% 9.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.0% 63.7% 62.5% 61.6% 59.1% 44.4% 14.3% 17.4% 0.3% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 72.1% 91.3% 91.3% 91.3% 91.3% 68.2% 0.0% 23.3% 0.0% 8.1% Logistic Regression 45.4% 78.6% 78.6% 78.6% 76.3% 55.9% 38.6% 26.5% 0.0% 10.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.1% 23.0% 23.1% 18.1% 13.9% 15.7% 12.6% 5.0% 1.7% 5.8% RIPA Consensus 53.4% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 84.0% 51.2% 17.4% 29.5% 9.8% 10.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.3% 64.3% 64.3% 62.6% 60.6% 39.3% 15.7% 21.3% 7.1% 8.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.4% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 48.2% 0.0% 21.4% 5.7% 8.8% Logistic Regression 41.5% 81.8% 81.8% 81.8% 79.9% 54.2% 34.8% 37.6% 14.0% 11.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.0% 25.9% 25.6% 22.5% 20.0% 27.2% 10.6% 4.1% 1.0% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 58.2% 91.3% 91.3% 91.3% 90.5% 66.1% 24.9% 43.5% 17.6% 17.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.1% 69.5% 69.3% 68.3% 67.0% 53.1% 20.1% 30.3% 12.0% 12.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 73.0% 97.5% 97.5% 97.5% 97.5% 65.2% 0.0% 34.8% 10.4% 15.2% Logistic Regression 43.5% 85.1% 85.1% 85.1% 83.5% 67.0% 49.7% 52.1% 24.8% 19.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.0% 24.9% 20.0% 30.6% 23.5% 23.3% 19.6% 13.6% 3.9% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 60.5% 92.6% 92.0% 92.0% 91.3% 82.8% 39.7% 63.1% 43.2% 36.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 47.3% 70.0% 68.0% 71.5% 68.7% 62.9% 33.0% 46.6% 30.0% 26.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 67.9% 93.9% 92.8% 92.8% 92.8% 78.1% 0.0% 51.2% 24.8% 30.8% Logistic Regression 53.0% 91.2% 91.2% 91.2% 89.9% 87.5% 79.5% 75.1% 61.6% 41.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.7% 28.6% 26.0% 32.0% 22.2% 15.3% 18.7% 14.9% 4.1% 13.9% RIPA Consensus 25.8% 75.6% 56.3% 55.9% 54.3% 62.3% 29.2% 52.2% 35.8% 43.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.8% 59.9% 46.2% 47.9% 43.6% 46.6% 25.7% 39.7% 25.2% 33.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.7% 74.7% 44.2% 43.5% 43.5% 48.1% 0.0% 45.3% 23.8% 39.4% Logistic Regression 22.0% 76.5% 68.4% 68.4% 65.2% 76.5% 58.5% 59.1% 47.9% 48.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fabien at 05/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 16.3% 10.9% 12.0% 7.1% 8.2% 8.5% 17.6% 4.3% 16.7% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 35.6% 14.5% 12.0% 11.1% 30.6% 10.7% 31.6% 18.5% 43.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 29.2% 13.2% 12.0% 9.7% 23.0% 9.9% 26.9% 13.7% 34.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 30.5% 7.6% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7% 0.0% 27.2% 12.1% 45.3% Logistic Regression 2.7% 40.8% 21.4% 21.4% 19.5% 46.4% 21.4% 36.1% 24.9% 42.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Past 2023 W Pacific TCs