Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Mawar at 06/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 7.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 15 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 10 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 3 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 18 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 15 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 38 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 06/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 40 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 50 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 61 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 68 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.0% 3.2% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 3.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 112 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.2% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.6% 8.2% 6.6% 6.6% 3.5% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.4% 5.9% 4.8% 4.5% 2.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 0.8% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.9% 9.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.2% 11.7% 9.9% 9.5% 5.8% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.8% 8.0% 7.0% 6.7% 4.3% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.5% 2.0% 36.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.6% 14.2% 10.6% 10.5% 9.7% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.2% 11.3% 4.2% 5.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.1% 10.3% 7.0% 5.4% 3.7% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 10.6% 6.0% 5.3% 2.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.6% 9.8% 6.9% 4.3% 1.3% 40.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.6% 10.8% 7.1% 6.6% 6.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.6% 30.3% 4.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.2% 10.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.4% 3.9% 7.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.1% 1.3% 2.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.7% 21.9% 11.9% 3.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 34.3% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.4% 23.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 52.5% 28.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.0% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.5% 43.5% 34.1% 20.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 29.2% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.3% 28.9% 11.3% 6.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 47.0% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.4% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.6% 39.5% 48.6% 31.1% 11.7% 4.5% 1.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 10.0% 12.0% 9.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.5% 21.2% 22.4% 14.0% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.0% 13.8% 12.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.0% 10.3% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.7% 33.1% 27.4% 18.8% 12.8% 4.2% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 4.9% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.3% 14.3% 11.4% 7.6% 4.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.0% 5.3% 4.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 4.6% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 33.0% 11.4% 5.0% 3.4% 6.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 11.6% 4.1% 1.8% 1.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 31.0% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 20.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.0% 8.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.5% 34.4% 35.2% 20.4% 15.9% 6.7% 3.0% 2.7% 4.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 38.4% 29.1% 22.4% 20.8% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 41.7% 30.8% 26.6% 20.6% 16.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 59.3% 34.2% 27.8% 24.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 17.4% 24.0% 16.9% 16.9% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 41.3% 54.2% 39.3% 38.9% 25.5% 38.4% 9.6% 7.2% 9.9% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 27.3% 33.3% 24.9% 22.2% 19.4% 34.4% 2.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.0% 40.2% 29.7% 27.7% 21.4% 35.7% 5.1% 7.1% 3.3% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 40.6% 36.2% 26.6% 21.1% 18.2% 54.1% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.1% 30.4% 23.2% 23.2% 20.7% 14.7% 5.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.6% 38.4% 35.3% 28.3% 23.3% 53.6% 15.3% 10.8% 12.0% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 17.2% 29.0% 20.6% 17.3% 16.6% 20.9% 1.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.9% 32.1% 25.5% 20.9% 18.8% 31.8% 6.0% 7.1% 4.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.9% 30.7% 22.0% 15.4% 15.4% 32.8% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.4% 27.2% 19.2% 19.2% 17.7% 9.0% 2.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.4% 38.3% 32.1% 27.7% 30.2% 38.8% 11.1% 17.6% 11.6% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 47.6% 59.9% 51.2% 48.7% 46.9% 42.6% 6.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.5% 52.7% 44.8% 41.6% 41.3% 41.3% 8.1% 11.9% 3.8% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.8% 64.8% 54.1% 49.0% 49.0% 56.2% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 29.4% 55.1% 48.3% 48.3% 44.9% 29.0% 13.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.8% 36.0% 26.1% 14.9% 14.8% 34.5% 12.7% 20.9% 3.6% 6.1% RIPA Consensus 46.4% 62.6% 53.3% 50.4% 49.2% 39.8% 5.6% 13.5% 0.0% 10.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 38.1% 53.7% 44.2% 38.5% 37.7% 38.0% 7.9% 16.0% 1.2% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 66.2% 68.7% 58.8% 53.0% 53.0% 52.8% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0% 15.9% Logistic Regression 26.6% 56.5% 47.7% 47.7% 45.4% 26.8% 11.1% 9.2% 0.0% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.4% 42.5% 20.5% 18.1% 10.2% 33.4% 17.4% 34.5% 11.3% 13.2% RIPA Consensus 55.0% 80.1% 76.0% 72.6% 70.4% 54.3% 14.6% 29.8% 9.9% 14.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.8% 67.5% 57.4% 54.4% 50.3% 47.3% 15.5% 31.3% 10.3% 13.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 72.1% 82.9% 76.6% 69.9% 68.2% 57.5% 0.0% 32.6% 11.0% 18.7% Logistic Regression 38.0% 77.3% 75.3% 75.3% 72.5% 51.1% 29.3% 27.0% 8.7% 10.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.3% 40.3% 19.4% 19.1% 10.3% 27.5% 14.5% 34.7% 10.0% 16.3% RIPA Consensus 53.3% 82.2% 75.7% 74.4% 73.2% 63.0% 19.5% 41.1% 20.5% 21.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.6% 68.2% 56.9% 56.0% 52.2% 51.1% 17.8% 38.9% 16.9% 20.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 71.4% 85.9% 77.1% 74.6% 74.6% 64.8% 0.0% 43.6% 22.7% 26.2% Logistic Regression 35.1% 78.5% 74.3% 74.3% 71.9% 61.2% 38.9% 38.5% 18.2% 17.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/21/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.5% 29.3% 10.1% 6.8% 7.6% 15.9% 9.5% 22.7% 22.9% 20.2% RIPA Consensus 33.2% 73.7% 57.0% 53.2% 51.8% 58.0% 18.0% 44.3% 24.2% 39.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.9% 58.9% 41.3% 37.6% 37.0% 43.9% 15.2% 37.1% 23.7% 32.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.1% 77.4% 55.3% 47.7% 47.7% 55.2% 0.0% 47.6% 24.8% 47.5% Logistic Regression 20.2% 70.1% 58.6% 58.6% 55.8% 60.8% 36.1% 41.1% 23.5% 30.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/21/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.1% 22.5% 9.9% 10.4% 6.1% 21.2% 12.9% 21.0% 17.0% 16.6% RIPA Consensus 16.2% 64.4% 39.7% 37.5% 36.2% 49.4% 15.3% 42.8% 26.1% 43.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.5% 50.4% 29.7% 28.4% 26.1% 39.9% 14.5% 35.5% 23.0% 34.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.1% 67.3% 36.0% 31.6% 31.6% 41.7% 0.0% 46.7% 24.8% 50.7% Logistic Regression 11.3% 61.5% 43.3% 43.3% 40.8% 57.0% 30.6% 39.0% 27.5% 36.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.8% 23.8% 9.6% 6.9% 6.1% 17.2% 18.5% 28.4% 16.3% 23.4% RIPA Consensus 20.8% 73.5% 47.4% 42.8% 40.9% 58.8% 23.3% 51.7% 34.4% 58.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.4% 56.9% 34.8% 30.8% 29.3% 44.9% 21.7% 43.9% 28.3% 46.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.4% 75.3% 38.9% 29.7% 29.7% 46.6% 0.0% 51.0% 24.8% 61.6% Logistic Regression 18.1% 71.7% 55.9% 55.9% 52.1% 71.0% 46.7% 52.3% 44.0% 55.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mawar at 05/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.3% 25.8% 14.4% 7.2% 12.9% 11.2% 14.1% 30.5% 24.4% 19.3% RIPA Consensus 11.9% 63.7% 33.5% 27.8% 25.7% 53.1% 22.2% 49.7% 34.1% 63.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.4% 51.0% 27.1% 20.9% 21.4% 39.1% 19.5% 43.3% 30.8% 48.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.8% 61.7% 22.1% 10.5% 9.8% 36.8% 0.0% 50.8% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 13.1% 65.7% 45.0% 45.0% 41.6% 69.5% 44.4% 48.7% 43.4% 64.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 05/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 14.7% 7.7% 8.6% 8.6% 10.1% 13.2% 20.5% 7.6% 22.4% RIPA Consensus 11.6% 71.4% 40.5% 33.1% 30.2% 59.3% 27.9% 51.0% 37.4% 68.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.8% 52.5% 29.5% 24.9% 23.0% 42.8% 23.0% 40.8% 27.4% 53.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.7% 68.7% 26.2% 11.5% 9.3% 40.5% 0.0% 51.1% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 14.4% 74.2% 54.7% 54.7% 51.2% 78.0% 55.9% 50.9% 50.0% 75.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 05/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 6.8% 6.1% 1.5% 0.7% 3.6% 15.6% 17.7% 14.7% 25.6% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 55.9% 24.9% 19.9% 17.3% 48.2% 20.0% 46.8% 32.6% 67.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 39.5% 18.5% 13.7% 11.7% 33.3% 18.5% 37.1% 26.6% 53.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 51.0% 13.8% 4.5% 2.4% 28.9% 0.0% 50.9% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 5.1% 60.9% 35.9% 35.3% 32.3% 67.4% 39.9% 42.8% 40.5% 72.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Past 2023 W Pacific TCs