Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Four intensity image current Four RI diff image

 


Talim at 07/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 4 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 5.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 3.4% 0.6% 10.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Talim at 07/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 33 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 4.0% 0.5% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Talim at 07/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 63 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 8.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Talim at 07/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 4.0% 0.7% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Talim at 07/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 6.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 3.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.2% 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Talim at 07/17/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.1% 22.5% 9.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 8.5% RIPA Consensus 15.1% 31.9% 29.5% 29.5% 17.1% 6.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.4% 28.8% 22.7% 20.0% 11.7% 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.0% 26.8% 26.8% 26.8% 4.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 13.3% 37.1% 32.1% 32.1% 29.5% 8.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
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Talim at 07/17/23 00 UTC. Intensity = kts, MPI = kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Talim at 07/16/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.4% 28.4% 11.2% 4.7% 2.7% 3.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Talim at 07/16/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.5% 43.5% 41.0% 27.0% 9.3% 18.8% 5.6% 3.3% 0.4% 1.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Talim at 07/16/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.8% 39.2% 43.0% 6.8% 4.6% 19.9% 3.5% 6.2% 1.3% 0.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Talim at 07/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 5.6% 5.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 9.3% 29.2% 19.0% 18.7% 13.7% 20.1% 5.1% 9.2% 2.8% 2.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 21.3% 14.6% 12.7% 9.2% 13.7% 3.4% 6.5% 1.8% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.3% 21.0% 15.4% 14.7% 4.9% 14.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 7.4% 37.4% 22.6% 22.6% 22.6% 26.2% 10.2% 11.2% 4.7% 5.2%
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Talim at 07/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 23.0% 11.2% 4.7% 4.2% 15.7% 5.2% 3.6% 2.8% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 6.8% 26.5% 15.2% 15.0% 10.4% 21.2% 5.9% 8.3% 2.8% 2.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 25.3% 13.8% 11.5% 8.2% 19.4% 5.7% 6.7% 2.8% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.2% 18.8% 12.1% 11.6% 2.3% 12.9% 0.0% 6.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 5.4% 34.1% 18.4% 18.4% 18.4% 29.6% 11.9% 10.3% 4.9% 4.2%
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Talim at 07/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 21.9% 4.2% 2.0% 1.4% 13.2% 2.4% 6.1% 2.1% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 15.9% 7.5% 7.1% 4.8% 13.3% 3.4% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 17.9% 6.4% 5.4% 3.7% 13.2% 3.0% 7.0% 2.4% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 9.9% 5.1% 4.9% 0.4% 6.4% 0.0% 6.1% 0.9% 2.7%
Logistic Regression 2.7% 22.0% 10.0% 9.3% 9.3% 20.1% 6.8% 9.0% 4.2% 7.3%
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Talim at 07/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 22.7% 7.8% 0.9% 0.8% 7.5% 2.0% 13.5% 3.5% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 10.9% 4.9% 4.5% 3.0% 10.8% 3.0% 7.5% 2.8% 4.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 14.7% 5.8% 3.3% 2.2% 9.7% 2.6% 9.5% 3.0% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 5.5% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 5.7% 0.6% 1.1%
Logistic Regression 1.8% 16.2% 6.8% 6.0% 6.0% 18.0% 6.0% 9.3% 5.0% 7.8%
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Four at 07/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 15.8% 10.1% 1.5% 1.0% 4.8% 1.5% 22.6% 1.1% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 17.1% 9.1% 8.8% 5.1% 17.0% 5.9% 9.8% 5.3% 11.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 16.6% 9.4% 6.3% 3.7% 12.9% 4.4% 14.0% 3.9% 9.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 10.2% 7.2% 7.2% 0.2% 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% 1.6% 5.2%
Logistic Regression 3.1% 23.9% 11.0% 10.5% 10.1% 28.8% 11.8% 12.8% 9.0% 17.6%
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Four at 07/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 17.2% 15.1% 2.4% 0.8% 4.8% 1.4% 7.4% 3.1% 11.8% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 13.0% 5.6% 5.2% 3.6% 15.5% 5.3% 9.9% 5.0% 15.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 14.4% 8.7% 4.2% 2.6% 11.9% 4.0% 9.0% 4.3% 14.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 6.4% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 7.5% 1.6% 8.8%
Logistic Regression 2.2% 19.7% 8.5% 7.7% 7.2% 27.4% 10.7% 12.2% 8.3% 21.4%
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