Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Doksuri at 07/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 6.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 8.4% 6.8% 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 28.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.1% 2.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.7% 6.8% 7.7% 4.9% 1.1% 2.7% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 41.1% 13.3% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.6% 11.1% 10.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 57.5% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.7% 12.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.3% 7.4% 8.7% 5.3% 1.9% 4.3% 0.5% 1.3% 1.9% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.8% 17.6% 15.0% 15.0% 9.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.0% 14.2% 12.9% 11.7% 7.2% 4.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.6% 12.7% 10.7% 10.7% 1.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.1% 22.5% 19.3% 19.3% 17.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 7.2% 15.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 2.0% 0.6% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 13.6% 9.9% 8.8% 7.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.2% 11.4% 11.7% 6.2% 5.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 8.8% 6.4% 4.3% 1.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 18.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 7.5% 2.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 5.6% 3.7% 3.1% 2.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 6.2% 3.3% 2.6% 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 4.3% 3.4% 2.6% 0.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 6.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 11.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 7.1% 4.5% 3.6% 2.3% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 8.4% 4.3% 2.7% 1.7% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 6.2% 4.3% 3.0% 0.5% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 8.0% 4.7% 4.2% 4.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/26/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 17.0% 7.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 3.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.9% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 7.8% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 2.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 12.8% 5.0% 1.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 4.3% 2.4% 1.8% 1.1% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 7.1% 3.2% 1.5% 1.6% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 4.0% 2.2% 1.5% 0.2% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 4.5% 2.6% 2.1% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.1% 6.6% 4.7% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 7.7% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 7.3% 4.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 8.4% 4.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 6.9% 4.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 13.8% 10.7% 0.9% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 2.8% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 6.5% 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 2.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.2% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 13.2% 10.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.3% 6.4% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 8.6% 6.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 6.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.6% 6.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.5% 8.8% 5.8% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 20.8% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.7% 13.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.6% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.7% 36.9% 42.0% 16.0% 9.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 29.0% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.2% 27.7% 14.0% 5.3% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 44.3% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 13.7% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.2% 37.9% 34.6% 19.7% 3.4% 2.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 44.8% 40.9% 31.5% 30.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 42.5% 39.9% 32.5% 26.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 63.3% 47.7% 35.2% 33.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 26.2% 34.1% 27.8% 27.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.3% 40.5% 47.2% 17.5% 10.7% 7.5% 1.7% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 50.6% 49.7% 48.5% 48.5% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 49.8% 46.6% 48.0% 38.1% 26.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 67.4% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 33.8% 47.7% 45.2% 45.2% 41.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.2% 60.7% 62.3% 45.3% 23.1% 25.3% 3.5% 11.1% 1.4% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 62.0% 67.8% 67.5% 67.5% 55.9% 76.8% 24.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 57.3% 65.4% 65.7% 60.1% 44.9% 59.6% 17.1% 23.9% 0.4% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 76.4% 68.4% 68.4% 68.4% 47.2% 93.2% 0.0% 40.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 47.5% 67.3% 66.6% 66.6% 64.6% 60.3% 47.9% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 49.2% 62.4% 63.8% 52.5% 12.7% 44.2% 15.9% 14.1% 2.8% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 70.7% 86.1% 84.8% 84.6% 77.8% 81.8% 28.7% 41.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 63.5% 78.1% 77.7% 73.8% 56.1% 69.2% 24.4% 32.2% 0.9% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 82.4% 87.9% 85.3% 85.0% 72.9% 92.7% 0.0% 47.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 59.0% 84.2% 84.2% 84.2% 82.7% 70.9% 57.3% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 50.5% 69.2% 67.5% 62.0% 41.0% 49.2% 20.2% 40.2% 8.8% 10.7% RIPA Consensus 77.0% 92.3% 92.2% 91.9% 89.4% 81.8% 31.7% 57.1% 33.7% 33.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 68.1% 84.6% 83.9% 81.8% 73.2% 70.9% 27.8% 51.4% 25.4% 25.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 88.0% 94.6% 94.3% 93.7% 89.5% 87.9% 0.0% 51.3% 24.8% 30.5% Logistic Regression 65.9% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 89.3% 75.7% 63.3% 62.9% 42.6% 35.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.9% 61.6% 55.6% 50.7% 33.6% 42.5% 23.7% 55.4% 11.9% 49.3% RIPA Consensus 75.4% 96.9% 96.0% 95.6% 88.7% 88.9% 43.3% 65.6% 45.4% 56.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 60.5% 85.1% 82.5% 80.6% 70.3% 73.4% 36.7% 62.1% 34.2% 53.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 79.3% 98.5% 96.7% 95.9% 82.7% 87.0% 0.0% 51.6% 24.8% 47.8% Logistic Regression 71.5% 95.3% 95.3% 95.3% 94.7% 90.9% 86.6% 79.6% 66.0% 64.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 44.1% 50.8% 38.3% 37.5% 31.6% 48.9% 30.1% 51.6% 27.9% 50.9% RIPA Consensus 55.1% 91.7% 86.5% 80.3% 75.6% 88.4% 43.4% 65.8% 47.5% 64.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 51.4% 78.0% 70.4% 66.0% 60.9% 75.2% 38.9% 61.0% 40.9% 60.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 58.9% 92.0% 83.0% 70.6% 62.1% 85.3% 0.0% 52.2% 25.0% 58.6% Logistic Regression 51.2% 91.4% 90.0% 90.0% 89.1% 91.5% 86.8% 79.3% 70.0% 70.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.9% 43.5% 34.7% 31.0% 24.1% 35.0% 17.5% 48.9% 24.2% 52.6% RIPA Consensus 23.9% 84.5% 71.4% 60.8% 57.6% 81.8% 40.8% 70.3% 67.6% 70.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.9% 70.8% 59.1% 50.8% 46.4% 66.2% 33.0% 63.1% 53.1% 64.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.2% 81.8% 60.8% 39.6% 34.5% 74.3% 0.0% 58.0% 58.0% 61.9% Logistic Regression 27.7% 87.2% 81.9% 81.9% 80.6% 89.4% 81.7% 82.5% 77.3% 79.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.3% 46.4% 30.1% 17.4% 21.3% 26.6% 9.9% 39.6% 22.2% 43.2% RIPA Consensus 10.2% 65.0% 42.3% 34.0% 33.8% 64.1% 27.8% 56.3% 37.2% 61.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.6% 58.7% 38.2% 28.5% 29.5% 51.6% 21.8% 50.7% 32.1% 55.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.5% 58.8% 30.6% 14.1% 14.1% 52.8% 0.0% 51.6% 25.2% 61.9% Logistic Regression 12.0% 71.2% 54.0% 54.0% 53.4% 75.5% 55.5% 61.0% 49.2% 61.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.2% 39.3% 25.2% 4.4% 5.1% 19.2% 7.7% 41.0% 15.2% 42.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 45.4% 26.3% 15.5% 14.9% 41.7% 16.3% 47.2% 26.7% 55.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 33.5% 16.1% 1.4% 2.3% 9.3% 1.4% 31.2% 6.8% 53.1% RIPA Consensus 4.5% 48.1% 25.5% 19.5% 19.5% 58.6% 23.4% 73.6% 70.6% 72.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 43.2% 22.3% 13.4% 13.7% 42.1% 16.0% 59.5% 49.3% 66.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.5% 41.1% 18.5% 7.9% 7.9% 46.1% 0.0% 79.2% 79.2% 61.9% Logistic Regression 5.4% 55.1% 32.5% 31.0% 31.0% 71.0% 46.7% 68.1% 62.0% 83.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 32.6% 15.5% 5.7% 5.3% 12.5% 6.8% 36.1% 15.0% 57.8% RIPA Consensus 7.8% 51.4% 29.1% 22.5% 22.5% 59.5% 26.5% 50.3% 56.8% 73.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.7% 45.1% 24.5% 16.9% 16.7% 43.8% 19.9% 45.5% 42.8% 68.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.7% 42.4% 21.4% 9.0% 9.0% 43.9% 0.0% 52.1% 48.5% 61.9% Logistic Regression 8.8% 60.4% 36.7% 36.0% 36.0% 75.1% 53.0% 48.5% 65.0% 84.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Doksuri at 07/21/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.1% 28.6% 13.0% 3.5% 4.9% 22.9% 17.8% 40.0% 33.5% 62.3% RIPA Consensus 8.2% 45.4% 26.7% 21.4% 19.4% 56.8% 26.4% 55.7% 44.2% 72.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 39.8% 22.1% 15.4% 14.5% 45.5% 23.5% 50.4% 40.6% 68.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.9% 34.6% 19.3% 9.7% 5.7% 40.5% 0.0% 51.4% 28.6% 61.9% Logistic Regression 9.5% 56.2% 34.1% 33.1% 33.1% 73.1% 52.9% 60.0% 59.8% 82.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Past 2023 W Pacific TCs