Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Six at 08/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 41 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 52 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 41 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 3.1% 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 6.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 4.1% 2.8% 2.6% 1.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.2% 8.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 4.8% 2.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 3.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Logistic Regression 3.5% 7.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.5% 28.4% 19.8% 19.8% 13.5% 14.1% 3.6% 5.7% 3.4% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 19.2% 13.2% 13.3% 9.2% 9.6% 2.4% 3.8% 2.3% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.7% 21.3% 15.3% 15.3% 2.6% 10.1% 0.0% 5.0% 4.1% 1.8% Logistic Regression 10.3% 35.6% 24.3% 24.3% 24.3% 18.1% 7.1% 6.4% 2.8% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 2.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 17.7% 43.7% 34.7% 34.7% 24.7% 26.1% 7.7% 10.3% 5.9% 4.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.1% 29.8% 23.4% 23.5% 16.7% 18.1% 5.6% 7.1% 4.0% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.3% 34.8% 27.9% 27.9% 7.9% 19.6% 0.0% 8.4% 6.3% 5.2% Logistic Regression 18.1% 52.5% 41.6% 41.6% 41.6% 32.7% 15.4% 12.2% 5.5% 4.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 1.1% 0.8% 2.1% 1.8% 3.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 14.7% 39.0% 32.5% 32.5% 21.0% 29.8% 9.7% 11.3% 6.7% 11.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.7% 26.3% 21.9% 22.3% 14.6% 21.0% 7.5% 7.8% 4.5% 7.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.5% 28.3% 26.8% 26.8% 3.9% 21.6% 0.0% 8.7% 6.9% 14.7% Logistic Regression 16.0% 49.7% 38.2% 38.2% 38.2% 38.0% 19.3% 13.8% 6.4% 9.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2.4% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 17.6% 10.9% 10.7% 8.0% 12.3% 3.2% 7.3% 2.4% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 12.4% 7.7% 7.3% 5.3% 8.9% 2.6% 5.3% 1.7% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 8.0% 5.5% 5.5% 0.1% 6.9% 0.0% 5.6% 2.4% 11.2% Logistic Regression 4.1% 27.3% 16.3% 15.9% 15.9% 17.6% 6.3% 9.0% 2.4% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.1% 3.1% 2.6% 2.4% 4.8% 0.9% 6.6% 1.4% 11.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.5% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7% 3.5% 0.7% 5.0% 1.0% 8.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 6.2% 1.7% 20.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 11.3% 5.6% 4.8% 4.8% 7.1% 1.8% 6.9% 1.2% 3.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 16.4% 10.8% 9.9% 8.1% 15.6% 3.1% 15.0% 4.5% 12.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 11.4% 7.6% 6.8% 5.5% 10.8% 2.1% 10.6% 3.0% 8.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 6.8% 6.1% 4.4% 0.8% 12.7% 0.0% 14.1% 5.6% 19.8% Logistic Regression 4.4% 26.1% 15.4% 15.3% 15.3% 18.4% 6.3% 15.9% 3.4% 5.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.8% 0.6% 4.3% 0.1% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 18.0% 13.2% 13.2% 8.9% 17.6% 3.5% 14.6% 4.8% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 12.6% 9.2% 8.9% 6.4% 12.3% 2.5% 11.1% 3.2% 6.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 1.6% 16.6% 0.0% 13.6% 5.7% 13.3% Logistic Regression 5.1% 25.7% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 18.6% 7.0% 15.6% 4.0% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 3.8% 8.5% 3.6% 1.1% 14.8% 4.6% 7.1% 2.5% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 22.5% 17.2% 17.2% 10.9% 19.4% 4.7% 17.9% 4.7% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.9% 16.2% 14.3% 12.7% 7.6% 17.8% 4.6% 14.2% 3.9% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 1.1% 15.9% 0.0% 15.3% 3.9% 5.3% Logistic Regression 6.1% 31.1% 20.7% 20.7% 20.7% 22.9% 9.3% 20.4% 5.5% 5.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 2.4% 4.1% 2.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 9.2% 0.7% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 6.3% 23.6% 18.4% 18.4% 12.6% 20.7% 5.4% 21.9% 7.4% 17.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.7% 16.5% 13.6% 13.0% 8.9% 14.4% 4.3% 17.6% 5.1% 12.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.3% 13.4% 13.3% 13.3% 1.5% 16.3% 0.0% 18.9% 7.3% 23.5% Logistic Regression 7.3% 33.8% 23.6% 23.6% 23.6% 25.0% 10.8% 24.9% 7.4% 11.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 4.8% 0.9% 3.0% 1.0% 5.2% 1.4% 6.1% 0.8% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 6.5% 20.7% 15.7% 15.5% 11.3% 17.1% 4.3% 15.5% 4.3% 10.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.7% 15.4% 10.7% 11.2% 7.8% 13.1% 3.3% 12.3% 3.1% 8.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.4% 11.0% 10.7% 10.1% 1.8% 13.3% 0.0% 11.5% 3.3% 12.2% Logistic Regression 7.6% 30.5% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.9% 8.5% 19.5% 5.3% 9.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 4.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% 6.2% 0.2% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 14.0% 10.0% 10.0% 6.9% 11.1% 2.0% 10.4% 2.6% 11.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 10.8% 6.8% 6.7% 4.6% 7.8% 1.5% 9.0% 1.8% 8.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 1.2% 10.0% 0.0% 9.1% 2.5% 13.5% Logistic Regression 4.4% 20.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.1% 4.0% 11.8% 2.8% 8.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 2.3% 4.4% 0.2% 0.6% 3.4% 1.1% 6.6% 0.3% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 12.4% 8.6% 8.6% 5.6% 9.8% 1.9% 11.5% 2.6% 11.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 9.0% 7.2% 5.8% 3.9% 7.6% 1.6% 9.8% 1.8% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.3% 8.0% 0.0% 9.6% 2.4% 14.2% Logistic Regression 3.5% 18.5% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 11.6% 3.8% 13.3% 2.8% 9.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.4% 0.1% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 9.0% 5.5% 5.5% 4.0% 5.9% 1.0% 6.0% 0.9% 6.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 6.1% 3.8% 4.1% 2.8% 4.9% 1.0% 4.8% 0.6% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 0.4% 4.5% 0.0% 4.6% 0.4% 6.5% Logistic Regression 4.0% 14.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 1.9% 7.4% 1.3% 5.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 2.0% 0.7% 5.6% 2.4% 4.3% 0.2% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 14.8% 10.5% 10.3% 7.1% 11.9% 1.7% 11.0% 2.2% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 10.3% 7.2% 7.5% 4.9% 9.8% 1.9% 8.7% 1.5% 8.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3% 1.8% 12.3% 0.0% 9.9% 1.8% 8.5% Logistic Regression 5.5% 21.0% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 11.6% 3.4% 12.1% 2.5% 8.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 2.1% 1.0% 3.8% 0.0% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 12.0% 8.2% 8.2% 5.2% 9.2% 1.4% 9.6% 2.3% 8.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 8.2% 5.7% 5.6% 3.7% 6.8% 1.2% 7.6% 1.5% 6.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 0.9% 8.8% 0.0% 8.5% 2.1% 8.2% Logistic Regression 3.9% 17.0% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 2.8% 10.7% 2.5% 8.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 80 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 2.3% 0.2% 3.4% 2.7% 5.7% 1.2% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 17.9% 13.4% 13.4% 7.6% 12.0% 2.4% 11.2% 2.9% 9.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 12.4% 9.2% 9.7% 5.1% 9.1% 2.4% 9.3% 2.3% 7.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 0.6% 10.3% 0.0% 9.2% 2.7% 9.9% Logistic Regression 5.5% 23.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 13.7% 4.7% 13.2% 3.1% 9.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.9% 0.6% 2.3% 1.3% 3.8% 0.8% 5.4% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 9.3% 5.9% 5.9% 4.1% 6.8% 1.0% 7.6% 1.6% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 6.4% 4.1% 4.5% 2.9% 5.3% 1.0% 6.3% 1.3% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 0.4% 6.5% 0.0% 7.1% 1.7% 9.6% Logistic Regression 3.0% 14.4% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.2% 2.0% 8.2% 1.5% 6.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% 3.7% 0.2% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 9.7% 6.1% 5.4% 4.2% 7.2% 0.9% 7.6% 1.6% 8.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 7.1% 4.3% 4.1% 3.1% 5.3% 0.7% 6.3% 1.1% 7.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 3.3% 0.8% 7.5% 0.0% 7.6% 2.0% 11.3% Logistic Regression 2.2% 14.8% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 6.8% 1.8% 7.7% 1.3% 5.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 2.5% 2.3% 3.2% 0.6% 2.4% 1.2% 2.9% 0.3% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 9.0% 6.0% 5.6% 4.1% 6.4% 0.7% 6.3% 1.0% 6.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 6.8% 4.8% 4.8% 2.9% 5.0% 0.8% 5.1% 0.7% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 4.7% 4.7% 3.8% 0.8% 7.5% 0.0% 6.0% 1.0% 8.4% Logistic Regression 1.9% 13.3% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 5.3% 1.4% 6.6% 0.9% 4.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.4% 3.5% 3.5% 2.2% 3.4% 0.4% 3.8% 0.3% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 4.1% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 2.5% 0.3% 3.2% 0.4% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 3.6% Logistic Regression 1.4% 8.3% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 3.2% 0.8% 4.7% 0.5% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.7% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 2.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 98 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 2.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 8.0% 6.4% 6.4% 3.5% 5.6% 0.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 6.1% 5.0% 4.5% 2.4% 3.9% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.6% 8.4% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 9.7% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 2.7% 0.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 5.0% 3.8% 3.7% 2.2% 4.7% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% 3.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 0.1% 7.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 6.9% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 6.0% 4.5% 4.5% 2.8% 5.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 0.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 8.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.4% 2.6% 0.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 5.5% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 12.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 4.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.8% 8.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 1.2% 21.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.0% 7.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 3.2% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 4.9% 4.9% 1.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 3.6% 5.9% 4.4% 4.4% 2.5% 10.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 5.5% 4.5% 3.2% 2.1% 7.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 0.8% 18.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 7.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 4.8% 3.6% 3.5% 1.9% 8.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 4.2% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 5.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 0.3% 14.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 6.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 5.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 5.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.6% 3.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 4.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 5.4% 4.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 5.9% 3.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 08/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 3.5% 2.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 3.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.6% 3.8% 2.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 7.4% 7.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 4.6% 3.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 3.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 5.6% 4.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 5.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 3.8% 3.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.6% 3.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 13.1% 9.6% 7.9% 7.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.9% 7.0% 5.5% 5.4% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.9% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.2% 8.7% 5.4% 5.4% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 51.1% 45.1% 43.4% 43.4% 26.9% 47.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.1% 47.0% 47.0% 47.0% 16.8% 69.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 37.1% 43.3% 39.9% 39.9% 37.1% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 51.4% 59.8% 50.4% 30.9% 20.7% 10.9% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 63.7% 72.8% 70.9% 69.2% 64.6% 73.9% 22.3% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 59.5% 68.4% 64.0% 56.4% 50.0% 52.8% 15.5% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 77.1% 73.1% 69.3% 65.9% 59.3% 90.2% 0.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 50.2% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5% 70.0% 57.5% 44.7% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.2% 45.7% 56.9% 56.6% 27.3% 27.9% 7.1% 6.7% 0.3% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 54.0% 63.6% 62.7% 62.7% 53.2% 50.9% 12.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 52.0% 57.6% 60.7% 60.6% 44.6% 43.2% 10.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 71.2% 63.7% 63.7% 63.7% 46.4% 62.4% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 36.7% 63.5% 61.7% 61.7% 60.1% 39.4% 24.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 41.4% 50.3% 59.0% 46.1% 29.4% 36.2% 10.9% 27.5% 7.6% 11.1% RIPA Consensus 59.0% 80.6% 80.5% 80.5% 64.5% 56.7% 22.1% 36.0% 13.0% 10.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 53.1% 70.4% 73.3% 69.0% 52.7% 49.9% 18.4% 33.1% 11.1% 10.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 70.5% 80.1% 80.1% 80.1% 49.3% 52.6% 0.0% 31.6% 8.7% 6.1% Logistic Regression 47.4% 81.1% 80.8% 80.8% 79.7% 60.9% 44.3% 40.4% 17.2% 15.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.4% 56.3% 62.4% 47.4% 45.2% 35.9% 17.5% 37.9% 4.1% 20.6% RIPA Consensus 39.3% 77.5% 69.1% 67.9% 51.8% 58.5% 25.9% 43.9% 19.0% 20.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.0% 70.4% 66.8% 61.1% 49.6% 50.9% 23.0% 41.9% 14.0% 20.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 41.5% 74.4% 60.4% 58.0% 27.6% 48.6% 0.0% 37.8% 12.1% 13.5% Logistic Regression 37.1% 80.6% 77.9% 77.9% 76.0% 68.3% 51.8% 50.1% 25.8% 26.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.7% 54.1% 50.6% 24.4% 7.3% 24.9% 11.3% 36.8% 6.5% 36.0% RIPA Consensus 35.2% 79.4% 69.8% 67.1% 52.1% 63.8% 31.6% 50.5% 28.4% 29.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 33.3% 70.9% 63.3% 52.8% 37.1% 50.8% 24.8% 45.9% 21.1% 31.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.5% 75.7% 59.4% 54.1% 26.3% 51.0% 0.0% 44.3% 18.9% 19.5% Logistic Regression 35.9% 83.1% 80.1% 80.1% 77.9% 76.6% 63.2% 56.6% 38.0% 38.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 25.9% 5.6% 7.7% 0.1% 11.7% 5.8% 20.8% 3.6% 39.1% RIPA Consensus 20.7% 68.9% 53.7% 46.9% 40.8% 59.8% 22.0% 49.5% 28.2% 40.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.0% 54.5% 37.6% 33.8% 27.2% 43.8% 16.5% 39.9% 19.9% 39.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.9% 64.9% 47.8% 34.3% 22.1% 53.3% 0.0% 49.7% 24.8% 40.6% Logistic Regression 19.6% 72.9% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6% 66.4% 44.0% 49.3% 31.5% 39.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 4.9% 2.0% 1.8% 0.3% 6.7% 3.0% 16.1% 3.5% 34.8% RIPA Consensus 13.4% 65.0% 44.6% 38.3% 30.4% 58.2% 20.5% 50.4% 30.5% 56.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 44.9% 30.3% 26.1% 20.3% 41.0% 14.6% 39.0% 21.4% 48.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.5% 62.1% 40.8% 28.3% 12.4% 50.4% 0.0% 50.9% 24.8% 60.5% Logistic Regression 12.2% 67.8% 48.4% 48.4% 48.4% 65.9% 40.9% 50.0% 36.1% 51.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 5.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 9.0% 0.7% 27.2% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 39.6% 19.7% 14.0% 13.7% 41.4% 8.9% 41.6% 22.1% 48.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 28.3% 13.3% 9.4% 9.1% 28.1% 6.0% 30.7% 14.9% 41.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.5% 35.7% 18.4% 7.1% 6.4% 39.1% 0.0% 49.0% 24.8% 61.2% Logistic Regression 4.7% 43.5% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 43.8% 17.7% 34.1% 19.3% 36.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 20.7% 7.1% 3.1% 0.2% 7.1% 2.9% 14.9% 3.9% 27.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 25.8% 11.1% 7.8% 6.5% 29.7% 6.5% 37.6% 20.7% 51.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 24.0% 9.7% 6.2% 4.4% 22.1% 5.2% 30.0% 15.0% 43.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 20.9% 8.9% 3.4% 0.9% 24.7% 0.0% 45.4% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 1.8% 30.7% 13.4% 12.2% 12.2% 34.7% 12.9% 29.8% 16.5% 41.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 10.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.7% 4.0% 2.0% 21.4% 2.0% 40.5% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 27.8% 12.5% 9.1% 7.0% 35.1% 8.4% 39.6% 23.1% 53.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 22.1% 9.3% 6.2% 4.9% 24.7% 6.2% 33.5% 16.0% 49.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 23.6% 11.3% 5.3% 1.2% 29.1% 0.0% 47.1% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 1.9% 32.1% 13.7% 12.8% 12.8% 41.0% 16.8% 32.0% 21.5% 46.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Khanun at 07/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 30.7% 12.9% 7.5% 0.8% 14.8% 7.5% 25.6% 11.2% 43.8% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 38.7% 18.9% 15.5% 11.5% 42.2% 14.2% 46.0% 28.8% 59.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 36.0% 16.9% 12.8% 7.9% 33.1% 12.0% 39.2% 22.9% 54.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 33.1% 14.2% 9.2% 1.1% 30.6% 0.0% 49.5% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 2.7% 44.3% 23.6% 21.9% 21.9% 53.9% 28.5% 42.6% 32.9% 57.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 07/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 7.5% 5.8% 0.9% 0.2% 9.3% 3.7% 21.6% 8.2% 43.6% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 35.7% 15.6% 12.5% 9.5% 48.5% 19.1% 52.4% 37.0% 67.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 26.3% 12.3% 8.6% 6.3% 35.4% 14.0% 42.1% 27.4% 59.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 29.6% 10.9% 6.7% 0.7% 33.2% 0.0% 51.3% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 2.6% 41.9% 20.3% 18.2% 18.2% 63.8% 38.3% 53.5% 49.2% 73.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 07/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% 0.7% 0.7% 5.0% 2.5% 21.0% 10.0% 45.7% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 18.5% 6.4% 4.7% 3.9% 30.9% 10.9% 45.7% 30.5% 66.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 16.9% 5.9% 3.3% 2.8% 22.2% 8.1% 37.5% 23.6% 59.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 12.7% 3.2% 1.6% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 49.6% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 24.2% 9.6% 7.8% 7.7% 46.6% 21.9% 41.9% 36.2% 70.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 07/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 6.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.1% 3.7% 1.3% 14.2% 5.2% 34.8% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 19.5% 6.6% 4.9% 4.0% 24.8% 6.9% 39.9% 25.2% 63.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 15.0% 4.6% 3.7% 2.6% 17.7% 5.0% 31.3% 18.5% 53.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 14.0% 3.6% 1.9% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 48.2% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 1.9% 25.0% 9.7% 8.0% 8.0% 36.4% 13.9% 31.6% 25.6% 64.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 07/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.4% 22.7% 9.8% 3.8% 1.6% 11.4% 7.2% 16.8% 10.9% 34.0% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 36.7% 16.1% 12.6% 10.6% 35.5% 15.1% 41.1% 31.7% 69.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 32.0% 13.9% 9.6% 7.6% 27.4% 12.5% 33.0% 24.7% 57.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 28.1% 8.7% 3.6% 0.8% 14.9% 0.0% 43.3% 24.7% 61.9% Logistic Regression 5.0% 45.4% 23.4% 21.6% 20.5% 56.1% 30.3% 39.0% 38.7% 76.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Past 2023 W Pacific TCs