Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index     Eight at 08/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.5% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 85 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 1.6% 6.7% 1.8% 6.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 2.2% 0.6% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.2% 6.2% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 5.8% 15.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 16.4% 16.4% 13.3% 13.3% 9.5% 4.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.4% 12.8% 14.1% 9.0% 6.3% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.3% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 6.8% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.5% 18.2% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 8.7% 3.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 10.4% 0.9% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 7.3% 5.1% 4.8% 3.1% 3.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 7.7% 4.6% 3.4% 2.1% 2.6% 0.5% 3.7% 0.3% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 1.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 9.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 11.3% 6.3% 1.9% 0.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 9.9% RIPA Consensus 4.1% 14.8% 10.7% 10.7% 7.3% 7.8% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 13.6% 9.2% 7.7% 5.1% 5.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 2.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 20.8% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 9.1% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 11.9% 8.1% 1.7% 0.3% 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 14.0% RIPA Consensus 5.3% 18.2% 12.8% 12.1% 10.1% 13.4% 3.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 16.1% 11.2% 8.6% 6.8% 10.3% 2.3% 2.4% 0.7% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 10.1% 9.0% 7.4% 3.4% 9.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.9% 26.4% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 17.8% 6.5% 4.8% 1.7% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 15.7% 8.2% 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 10.5% 6.0% 5.5% 4.7% 9.1% 2.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 12.2% 6.7% 4.7% 3.6% 6.6% 1.9% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 4.9% 3.4% 2.4% 0.8% 5.6% 0.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 16.2% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 12.7% 4.2% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/26/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.7% 15.5% 7.5% 1.4% 1.3% 2.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 13.9% 7.7% 7.1% 6.2% 9.7% 2.6% 6.3% 1.4% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 14.4% 7.6% 5.1% 4.5% 7.2% 1.9% 4.6% 0.9% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 7.2% 4.0% 2.7% 1.0% 4.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 20.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.0% 5.3% 9.1% 2.2% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 12.8% 6.6% 2.2% 1.7% 3.4% 0.9% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 4.2% 17.0% 10.0% 8.4% 8.1% 11.8% 2.9% 7.1% 2.0% 1.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 15.6% 8.8% 6.3% 5.9% 9.0% 2.2% 5.8% 1.5% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 10.2% 6.8% 3.7% 3.0% 6.9% 0.0% 4.3% 1.4% 0.7% Logistic Regression 4.3% 23.9% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 16.7% 5.8% 9.9% 2.7% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 12.7% 7.2% 6.2% 5.6% 7.7% 1.6% 4.9% 1.4% 2.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 9.0% 5.0% 4.5% 3.9% 5.3% 1.1% 4.0% 0.9% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 7.3% 5.2% 3.1% 2.1% 4.6% 0.0% 3.1% 1.1% 2.7% Logistic Regression 3.3% 18.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 10.8% 3.1% 6.7% 1.7% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.6% 11.5% 7.9% 0.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.8% 3.2% 0.3% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 8.3% 3.8% 3.4% 2.8% 6.7% 1.3% 3.5% 0.9% 3.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 9.3% 5.1% 2.5% 2.5% 4.8% 1.1% 3.4% 0.7% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 4.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.8% 3.8% 0.0% 2.0% 0.7% 3.8% Logistic Regression 2.2% 11.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 9.5% 2.6% 5.0% 1.2% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.3% 14.1% 8.7% 3.5% 1.5% 6.7% 4.4% 13.2% 1.0% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 30.7% 18.2% 18.2% 13.0% 26.3% 9.4% 11.1% 4.7% 6.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.7% 25.1% 15.0% 13.2% 9.1% 19.8% 7.7% 11.7% 3.4% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.5% 23.8% 14.1% 14.1% 3.8% 14.2% 0.0% 6.5% 2.4% 4.1% Logistic Regression 6.5% 37.5% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 38.5% 18.9% 15.7% 7.0% 9.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Damrey at 08/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 24.3% 18.8% 3.2% 3.2% 4.9% 2.5% 14.1% 1.2% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 29.2% 15.7% 14.8% 10.9% 20.8% 6.8% 10.6% 4.6% 12.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 27.5% 16.7% 10.9% 8.3% 15.5% 5.3% 11.7% 3.5% 10.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 21.6% 11.3% 9.5% 1.7% 9.8% 0.0% 6.8% 3.0% 11.9% Logistic Regression 4.8% 36.7% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 31.8% 13.7% 14.4% 6.3% 12.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.4% 29.0% 16.5% 6.1% 3.1% 25.1% 11.4% 18.0% 17.9% 24.6% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 26.8% 12.8% 11.3% 9.1% 28.3% 11.5% 22.8% 10.0% 22.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 27.5% 14.0% 9.5% 7.0% 27.2% 11.4% 21.1% 12.6% 23.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 15.9% 5.0% 3.3% 0.3% 11.0% 0.0% 21.4% 6.8% 25.1% Logistic Regression 4.6% 37.7% 20.6% 19.3% 17.9% 45.7% 23.0% 24.1% 13.3% 20.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 4.0% 0.2% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 12.8% 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 13.5% 2.8% 12.4% 8.8% 22.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 10.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.7% 9.4% 2.0% 9.6% 5.9% 17.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 7.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 6.4% 0.0% 15.5% 13.2% 35.5% Logistic Regression 2.3% 18.0% 6.0% 4.8% 4.8% 20.5% 5.5% 9.4% 4.4% 9.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 16.6% 6.7% 0.5% 0.3% 3.2% 0.6% 3.5% 0.5% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 16.0% 6.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.2% 3.9% 8.3% 4.7% 8.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 16.2% 6.6% 3.0% 3.0% 11.8% 2.8% 6.7% 3.3% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 7.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.6% 6.8% 0.0% 9.4% 5.4% 12.3% Logistic Regression 3.4% 24.5% 9.9% 8.1% 8.1% 25.6% 7.8% 7.3% 4.0% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 9.6% 5.7% 0.4% 0.2% 2.5% 1.4% 13.2% 1.8% 39.8% RIPA Consensus 4.2% 41.9% 23.9% 17.8% 16.3% 53.2% 25.2% 57.7% 48.7% 69.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 31.1% 17.8% 11.9% 10.9% 36.3% 17.2% 42.9% 33.0% 59.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 27.7% 12.4% 4.3% 1.3% 34.4% 0.0% 52.0% 41.2% 61.9% Logistic Regression 6.8% 56.1% 35.5% 31.2% 31.2% 72.0% 50.4% 63.5% 56.1% 76.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 2.2% 0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 8.4% 2.9% 9.2% 2.4% 46.7% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 32.1% 17.2% 12.2% 11.6% 41.9% 16.6% 46.1% 29.1% 58.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 22.0% 11.6% 8.7% 7.7% 30.7% 12.0% 33.8% 20.2% 54.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 17.9% 9.2% 2.7% 1.5% 24.5% 0.0% 50.4% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 5.0% 46.2% 25.2% 21.7% 21.7% 59.4% 33.2% 41.8% 33.4% 54.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 4.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.3% 11.1% 3.5% 15.5% 3.8% 46.4% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 42.5% 25.1% 18.0% 18.0% 54.8% 23.7% 54.1% 48.9% 69.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 29.8% 17.7% 12.5% 12.1% 40.2% 17.0% 41.2% 33.8% 61.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 29.7% 17.2% 5.7% 5.7% 38.9% 0.0% 51.7% 46.0% 61.9% Logistic Regression 7.7% 55.2% 33.0% 30.3% 30.3% 70.7% 47.5% 56.5% 51.8% 77.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 12.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.5% 13.4% 2.9% 17.9% 5.6% 55.5% RIPA Consensus 4.5% 32.0% 17.0% 12.9% 12.9% 46.1% 15.9% 45.4% 33.1% 67.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 25.5% 12.3% 8.9% 8.7% 35.1% 11.5% 36.1% 23.9% 63.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 22.4% 14.9% 7.9% 7.9% 32.9% 0.0% 50.6% 28.2% 61.9% Logistic Regression 4.5% 41.7% 19.0% 17.9% 17.9% 59.3% 31.8% 40.1% 38.0% 73.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 8.3% 0.6% 1.4% 0.2% 6.9% 2.8% 12.0% 3.5% 42.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Past 2023 W Pacific TCs