CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

Nine at 09/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 122 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	2.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.5%	4.9%	1.0%	3.5%	1.9%	13.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.1%	1.9%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	3.3%	0.6%	2.4%	1.2%	8.8%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	2.6%	0.8%	9.8%
											Logistic Regression	0.4%	4.9%	1.2%	1.0%	1.0%	9.6%	2.0%	4.4%	3.0%	16.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine at 09/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	2.6%	0.8%	0.5%	0.5%	3.0%	0.5%	2.6%	0.8%	5.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.1%	1.8%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	2.0%	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%	3.4%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	2.1%	0.3%	5.4%
											Logistic Regression	0.4%	4.7%	1.3%	1.0%	1.0%	5.7%	1.0%	3.2%	1.2%	4.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine at 09/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	1.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	1.3%	0.4%	4.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.1%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	1.2%	0.1%	0.9%	0.2%	3.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	3.7%
											Logistic Regression	0.4%	2.9%	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%	3.4%	0.6%	2.2%	0.7%	5.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	2.3%	0.7%	0.5%	0.5%	2.0%	0.3%	2.4%	0.5%	9.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.1%	1.5%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	1.3%	0.1%	1.5%	0.3%	6.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	1.9%	0.2%	11.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.4%	4.0%	1.2%	0.9%	0.9%	3.7%	0.6%	2.8%	0.8%	7.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 133 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	2.8%	1.0%	0.7%	0.7%	2.8%	0.4%	6.1%	1.8%	22.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.1%	2.1%	0.6%	0.4%	0.4%	1.9%	0.2%	4.1%	1.2%	15.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	7.5%	2.4%	32.2%
											Logistic Regression	0.4%	5.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.4%	4.5%	0.8%	4.7%	1.2%	12.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 102 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	RIPA Consensus	0.1%	1.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.8%	0.1%	2.1%	0.3%	12.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	1.4%	0.1%	8.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	2.4%	0.3%	21.3%
											Logistic Regression	0.2%	2.1%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	1.2%	0.2%	1.9%	0.3%	3.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 104 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	9.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	6.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	17.4%
											Logistic Regression	0.1%	1.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%	1.4%	0.1%	1.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 134 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 104 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 112 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.5%	4.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.2%	1.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 127 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.5%	3.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.9%	0.7%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	1.0%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.5%	0.9%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 127 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	10.5%	5.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	2.6%	1.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	5.2%	2.6%	0.9%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	3.8%	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.3%	2.1%	1.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 09/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 140 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	14.7%	3.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	1.7%	1.4%	0.8%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	6.0%	2.1%	0.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.1%	0.8%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.3%	2.1%	1.1%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 159 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	6.4%	7.7%	0.7%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	2.4%	2.9%	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 158 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	9.3%	5.8%	1.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	1.9%	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	4.3%	2.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.3%	2.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 158 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	18.3%	8.8%	2.5%	2.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	8.6%	5.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	11.8%	6.7%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	12.1%	5.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	5.2%	5.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 161 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	33.2%	13.1%	6.0%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	9.1%	6.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	17.1%	8.7%	2.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	12.9%	6.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	5.4%	6.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 144 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	13.7%	18.1%	2.5%	1.2%	1.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	2.4%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	6.1%	7.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	3.0%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.8%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 138 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	11.0%	5.7%	2.0%	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	2.9%	2.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	5.6%	3.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	3.8%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	2.0%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 139 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	21.7%	18.3%	11.7%	3.6%	0.7%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	3.2%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	9.4%	7.6%	3.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	4.9%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.6%	2.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 144 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	15.3%	22.9%	7.0%	0.6%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	RIPA Consensus	3.0%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	7.0%	9.2%	2.3%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	4.5%	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.4%	2.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 138 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	29.9%	27.0%	19.5%	0.5%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	RIPA Consensus	16.8%	9.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	21.1%	15.6%	6.5%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	27.1%	11.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	6.5%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 125 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	26.6%	29.8%	18.3%	10.2%	3.1%	1.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	24.2%	9.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	25.0%	16.5%	6.1%	3.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	39.8%	12.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	8.6%	7.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 129 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	38.2%	29.9%	12.1%	28.3%	7.7%	6.2%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	RIPA Consensus	38.7%	25.9%	20.6%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	38.5%	27.2%	17.7%	21.5%	2.5%	2.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	58.4%	30.0%	26.0%	21.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	19.1%	21.9%	15.2%	15.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 133 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	35.9%	45.5%	40.4%	37.0%	18.3%	13.8%	4.2%	2.2%	0.5%	3.2%	RIPA Consensus	11.5%	20.0%	15.5%	12.3%	11.5%	29.1%	1.8%	8.8%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	19.6%	28.5%	23.8%	20.5%	13.7%	24.0%	2.6%	6.5%	0.1%	1.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	14.5%	18.7%	15.5%	9.3%	8.6%	48.6%	0.0%	13.7%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	8.5%	21.3%	15.5%	15.3%	14.4%	9.6%	3.6%	3.8%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 135 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	37.5%	43.0%	32.9%	40.1%	11.2%	13.4%	4.4%	2.8%	1.4%	4.5%	RIPA Consensus	8.5%	14.9%	11.2%	7.8%	7.5%	24.5%	1.0%	8.2%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	18.2%	24.3%	18.4%	N/A	8.7%	20.8%	2.1%	6.4%	0.4%	1.5%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	10.5%	13.7%	11.0%	5.0%	5.0%	42.8%	0.0%	13.4%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	6.6%	16.2%	11.3%	10.5%	9.9%	6.2%	2.1%	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 136 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	12.5%	33.2%	21.3%	21.8%	17.8%	10.7%	2.9%	1.1%	1.4%	0.7%	RIPA Consensus	7.3%	7.8%	6.1%	3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	9.0%	16.3%	11.2%	9.6%	8.3%	3.5%	0.9%	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	10.6%	8.0%	7.6%	3.3%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	4.0%	7.7%	4.7%	3.9%	3.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/28/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	25.9%	51.1%	30.2%	27.7%	12.6%	20.0%	5.8%	0.8%	0.9%	0.6%	RIPA Consensus	11.5%	15.1%	12.1%	8.7%	7.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	16.3%	27.0%	18.1%	15.0%	9.2%	6.6%	1.9%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	16.0%	15.7%	14.6%	8.6%	6.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	7.0%	14.4%	9.7%	8.8%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/28/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	33.4%	39.4%	36.5%	31.1%	26.3%	22.0%	2.0%	3.5%	5.0%	1.6%	RIPA Consensus	2.4%	6.2%	4.0%	3.0%	2.9%	14.1%	0.3%	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	12.7%	17.3%	14.7%	12.3%	10.7%	16.7%	0.8%	4.6%	1.6%	0.5%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.6%	5.0%	3.5%	1.9%	1.9%	25.6%	0.0%	8.4%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	2.1%	7.5%	4.4%	4.0%	3.9%	2.6%	0.6%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/27/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 147 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	6.1%	30.2%	18.2%	2.9%	8.9%	3.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%	RIPA Consensus	1.9%	1.4%	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	12.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	3.3%	11.0%	6.6%	1.5%	3.5%	9.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.7%	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	23.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.1%	2.0%	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/27/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	26.2%	30.9%	24.5%	6.3%	6.6%	4.8%	1.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	RIPA Consensus	8.5%	6.5%	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	14.4%	14.6%	11.6%	2.1%	2.1%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	13.8%	7.6%	7.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	3.2%	5.5%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/27/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	30.1%	33.8%	36.7%	6.5%	17.3%	5.0%	1.9%	2.7%	1.2%	1.0%	RIPA Consensus	1.9%	2.5%	1.8%	1.2%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	11.3%	12.9%	13.4%	2.9%	6.4%	1.6%	0.6%	0.9%	0.3%	0.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.6%	1.8%	1.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	1.3%	3.2%	1.8%	1.5%	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/27/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 153 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	32.0%	31.7%	16.5%	2.0%	7.0%	1.9%	0.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.8%	RIPA Consensus	5.7%	6.1%	4.6%	3.2%	2.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	14.5%	14.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.0%	0.6%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	7.9%	5.5%	5.2%	2.9%	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	3.6%	6.7%	4.1%	3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/26/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	44.2%	36.1%	35.6%	12.0%	13.1%	4.3%	3.9%	1.8%	0.7%	1.2%	RIPA Consensus	21.1%	18.5%	15.7%	14.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	28.8%	24.3%	22.3%	13.6%	4.3%	1.4%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	28.2%	18.5%	17.5%	15.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	14.0%	18.5%	13.8%	13.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	35.5%	55.3%	51.0%	39.0%	29.5%	12.2%	5.8%	6.1%	0.7%	1.7%	RIPA Consensus	24.0%	26.3%	22.4%	19.6%	16.5%	48.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	27.8%	35.9%	31.9%	26.0%	20.8%	36.4%	1.9%	2.0%	0.2%	0.5%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	33.3%	26.4%	25.0%	19.5%	14.3%	78.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	14.7%	26.1%	19.8%	19.8%	18.8%	19.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/26/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 141 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	44.4%	44.8%	44.4%	35.4%	27.1%	16.0%	9.7%	9.7%	1.9%	3.4%	RIPA Consensus	31.1%	41.9%	36.9%	35.1%	25.0%	57.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	35.5%	42.8%	39.3%	35.2%	25.6%	43.8%	3.2%	3.2%	0.6%	1.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	40.2%	41.9%	36.5%	33.1%	15.9%	81.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	21.9%	41.8%	37.2%	37.2%	34.0%	34.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 153 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	41.4%	55.5%	51.4%	34.7%	25.6%	18.8%	11.1%	19.8%	3.6%	8.8%	RIPA Consensus	17.7%	27.4%	22.1%	19.7%	15.6%	39.2%	4.3%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	25.5%	36.7%	31.8%	24.6%	18.9%	32.4%	6.5%	14.0%	1.2%	2.9%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	22.7%	26.4%	22.1%	17.2%	10.7%	59.7%	0.0%	16.4%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	12.7%	28.4%	22.1%	22.1%	20.4%	18.7%	8.7%	5.9%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	45.8%	56.4%	44.9%	27.0%	35.4%	26.0%	18.6%	20.5%	5.8%	7.2%	RIPA Consensus	43.5%	49.0%	45.8%	42.5%	39.5%	58.1%	12.1%	22.9%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	44.2%	51.4%	45.5%	37.3%	38.1%	47.4%	14.2%	22.0%	1.9%	2.4%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	61.8%	50.2%	50.2%	43.7%	39.4%	76.8%	0.0%	31.9%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	25.1%	47.8%	41.4%	41.4%	39.6%	39.5%	24.1%	13.8%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	32.8%	65.2%	54.8%	45.3%	35.6%	38.8%	22.5%	29.3%	15.5%	18.4%	RIPA Consensus	56.7%	75.9%	74.6%	72.3%	71.7%	58.8%	18.3%	41.0%	20.3%	23.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	48.6%	72.3%	68.0%	63.2%	59.7%	52.1%	19.6%	37.1%	18.7%	21.6%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	73.7%	78.9%	78.9%	74.2%	73.2%	62.7%	0.0%	41.4%	23.8%	25.4%
											Logistic Regression	39.6%	72.9%	70.3%	70.3%	70.3%	55.0%	36.5%	40.7%	16.9%	21.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 139 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	32.0%	54.0%	41.9%	24.3%	29.0%	35.4%	25.0%	36.5%	22.1%	36.8%	RIPA Consensus	53.9%	74.7%	73.3%	72.5%	59.5%	61.5%	26.8%	46.4%	27.4%	38.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	46.6%	67.8%	62.8%	56.4%	49.3%	52.8%	26.1%	43.1%	25.6%	37.8%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	63.9%	71.7%	71.7%	70.1%	45.7%	53.9%	0.0%	42.8%	24.6%	35.6%
											Logistic Regression	43.9%	77.7%	74.9%	74.9%	73.4%	69.2%	53.5%	50.0%	30.2%	41.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	38.9%	53.7%	44.4%	36.4%	35.1%	35.5%	21.7%	33.4%	25.9%	39.9%	RIPA Consensus	22.4%	54.8%	43.5%	39.5%	32.1%	47.8%	17.5%	43.3%	24.4%	45.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	27.8%	54.4%	43.7%	38.4%	33.1%	43.6%	18.9%	39.9%	24.8%	43.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	22.1%	48.3%	37.2%	29.1%	15.7%	39.7%	0.0%	43.6%	24.8%	49.4%
											Logistic Regression	22.6%	61.3%	49.8%	49.8%	48.5%	55.9%	35.0%	42.9%	23.9%	40.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	3.5%	30.7%	20.1%	9.2%	2.7%	11.7%	3.4%	31.7%	9.0%	40.7%	RIPA Consensus	7.0%	28.6%	19.2%	16.5%	12.7%	29.5%	8.3%	29.1%	17.6%	43.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	5.8%	29.3%	19.5%	14.0%	9.4%	23.5%	6.6%	29.9%	14.7%	42.4%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	6.7%	18.6%	14.8%	10.5%	3.0%	22.6%	0.0%	33.5%	22.7%	52.6%
											Logistic Regression	7.3%	38.6%	23.6%	22.5%	22.5%	36.5%	16.7%	24.7%	12.6%	33.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saola at 08/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	4.6%	29.5%	5.5%	4.0%	1.8%	11.0%	5.8%	18.3%	4.5%	25.1%	RIPA Consensus	9.2%	26.2%	17.5%	15.1%	12.9%	22.5%	6.3%	13.5%	7.3%	13.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	7.6%	27.3%	13.5%	11.4%	9.2%	18.6%	6.1%	15.1%	6.3%	17.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	10.3%	17.2%	14.9%	10.1%	5.8%	15.1%	0.0%	13.8%	7.7%	15.6%
											Logistic Regression	8.1%	35.2%	20.1%	20.1%	20.1%	29.9%	12.6%	13.3%	6.8%	10.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine at 08/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	11.5%	46.7%	22.6%	17.3%	13.5%	33.4%	16.3%	35.0%	24.5%	49.5%	RIPA Consensus	14.9%	45.6%	32.6%	30.1%	25.6%	46.4%	22.7%	38.6%	28.2%	49.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	13.7%	46.0%	29.2%	25.8%	21.5%	42.0%	20.5%	37.4%	27.0%	49.8%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	13.5%	32.6%	23.3%	18.3%	9.3%	28.2%	0.0%	37.3%	22.8%	44.4%
											Logistic Regression	16.2%	58.7%	41.9%	41.9%	41.8%	64.5%	45.4%	39.9%	33.7%	55.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine at 08/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	3.4%	25.7%	12.8%	4.1%	2.5%	18.5%	6.9%	24.8%	11.1%	37.6%	RIPA Consensus	7.3%	35.1%	23.1%	18.0%	17.6%	49.8%	21.7%	50.1%	34.9%	63.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	6.0%	31.9%	19.6%	13.3%	12.5%	39.3%	16.7%	41.6%	26.9%	54.5%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	6.9%	22.7%	17.9%	8.4%	7.7%	35.3%	0.0%	50.3%	24.8%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	7.7%	47.5%	28.2%	27.5%	27.5%	64.3%	43.3%	49.8%	45.0%	64.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine at 08/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 140 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	2.7%	19.7%	7.6%	1.8%	0.3%	13.5%	2.6%	18.4%	6.2%	28.3%	RIPA Consensus	2.7%	21.0%	10.7%	7.7%	7.0%	29.4%	11.8%	26.6%	22.4%	52.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	2.6%	20.5%	9.7%	5.7%	4.7%	24.0%	8.7%	23.8%	16.9%	44.6%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	1.5%	10.1%	6.0%	2.2%	0.9%	12.0%	0.0%	28.6%	23.4%	55.4%
											Logistic Regression	3.9%	32.0%	15.5%	13.1%	13.1%	46.8%	23.6%	24.6%	21.3%	50.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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