Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current Haikui intensity image current Haikui RI diff image

 


Haikui at 09/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 46 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 2.1% 1.5% 4.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.8%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.9% 0.8% 2.1% 1.0% 6.3%
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Haikui at 09/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 44 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
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Haikui at 09/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 46 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 9.8% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7%
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Haikui at 09/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 3.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.9% 7.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 2.6% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 6.5% 11.6% 9.3% 9.0% 6.6% 3.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 8.5% 6.4% 6.5% 4.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.9% 8.1% 7.8% 7.1% 2.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 5.1% 15.0% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 2.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2%
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Haikui at 09/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.0% 5.7% 4.4% 1.8% 2.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 5.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.8% 43.8% 45.1% 22.9% 13.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 39.2% 35.8% 31.0% 31.0% 22.4% 39.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.6% 38.4% 35.7% 28.3% 19.3% 27.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 55.3% 37.3% 33.1% 33.1% 17.2% 60.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 23.0% 34.2% 29.0% 29.0% 27.6% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 44.3% 54.1% 52.8% 42.2% 15.3% 3.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 61.9% 64.4% 64.4% 64.4% 52.4% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 56.0% 60.9% 60.5% 56.9% 40.0% 42.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 76.0% 63.5% 63.4% 63.4% 43.0% 79.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 47.8% 65.3% 65.3% 65.3% 61.7% 44.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 48.3% 56.7% 58.7% 53.5% 34.3% 35.8% 23.0% 9.8% 5.3% 5.5% RIPA Consensus 39.3% 54.9% 51.5% 51.5% 39.9% 47.0% 10.3% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 42.2% 55.4% 53.8% 52.1% 38.0% 43.2% 14.5% 17.2% 1.7% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 44.8% 49.3% 42.5% 42.5% 23.1% 58.8% 0.0% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 33.7% 60.4% 60.4% 60.4% 56.8% 35.1% 20.6% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0%
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Haikui at 09/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.0% 43.8% 34.8% 30.5% 8.2% 17.2% 5.4% 10.5% 2.1% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 15.2% 35.6% 30.0% 28.1% 22.0% 22.6% 2.4% 14.3% 2.6% 4.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.8% 38.3% 31.5% 28.9% 17.3% 20.8% 3.4% 13.0% 2.4% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.0% 30.0% 24.1% 20.5% 9.0% 32.0% 0.0% 16.0% 3.3% 5.7%
Logistic Regression 15.4% 41.1% 35.8% 35.8% 34.9% 13.3% 4.8% 12.7% 2.0% 3.5%
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Haikui at 09/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 37.0% 52.6% 46.3% 30.4% 22.4% 33.9% 15.7% 10.8% 3.2% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 36.4% 52.0% 49.9% 49.9% 36.2% 38.4% 8.0% 20.2% 0.0% 5.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.6% 52.1% 48.7% 43.4% 31.5% 36.9% 10.5% 17.0% 1.0% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 41.8% 47.1% 43.2% 43.2% 19.2% 46.4% 0.0% 22.4% 0.0% 3.4%
Logistic Regression 31.0% 56.9% 56.7% 56.7% 53.2% 30.4% 16.0% 18.0% 0.0% 7.0%
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Haikui at 09/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 39.2% 52.3% 43.0% 46.6% 25.0% 34.8% 16.6% 18.9% 4.5% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 38.6% 54.4% 53.8% 53.8% 41.1% 42.1% 9.6% 20.1% 0.0% 5.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 38.8% 53.6% 50.1% 51.4% 35.6% 39.6% 11.9% 19.7% 1.5% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 49.6% 51.0% 51.0% 51.0% 28.1% 49.9% 0.0% 22.4% 0.0% 3.9%
Logistic Regression 27.7% 57.7% 56.6% 56.6% 54.0% 34.3% 19.2% 17.9% 0.0% 7.3%
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Haikui at 09/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.6% 41.0% 41.9% 20.2% 14.2% 17.7% 6.8% 9.5% 1.6% 5.5% RIPA Consensus 16.3% 37.9% 32.6% 31.6% 26.3% 27.4% 3.7% 11.2% 2.3% 4.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.7% 38.9% 35.6% 27.8% 22.2% 24.1% 4.7% 10.6% 2.0% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.9% 34.5% 29.7% 27.7% 18.0% 36.2% 0.0% 11.6% 2.2% 4.1%
Logistic Regression 10.8% 41.3% 35.5% 35.5% 34.5% 18.6% 7.5% 10.7% 2.4% 4.4%
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Haikui at 09/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.9% 26.9% 22.8% 11.0% 9.5% 13.1% 2.4% 7.8% 0.3% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 16.6% 32.2% 28.6% 28.6% 20.5% 13.4% 1.8% 5.9% 0.7% 1.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.4% 30.4% 26.7% 22.7% 16.8% 13.2% 2.0% 6.5% 0.5% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.5% 28.2% 25.8% 25.8% 11.5% 15.7% 0.0% 5.0% 0.2% 1.7%
Logistic Regression 11.8% 36.3% 31.5% 31.5% 29.5% 11.1% 3.6% 6.8% 1.1% 1.6%
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Haikui at 09/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 39.0% 48.5% 40.0% 34.9% 20.1% 35.1% 18.3% 15.2% 6.1% 12.7% RIPA Consensus 43.5% 61.5% 61.5% 61.5% 46.9% 44.7% 14.6% 30.5% 8.2% 10.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 42.0% 57.1% 54.3% 52.6% 38.0% 41.5% 15.8% 25.3% 7.5% 11.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 54.5% 56.9% 56.9% 56.9% 31.0% 43.0% 0.0% 26.5% 5.4% 7.9%
Logistic Regression 32.5% 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 62.9% 46.5% 29.1% 34.4% 11.0% 12.8%
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Haikui at 09/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.6% 37.6% 18.3% 19.4% 9.1% 26.5% 11.9% 14.8% 0.7% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 22.6% 43.4% 37.4% 37.4% 28.5% 29.4% 7.6% 24.0% 5.5% 10.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.2% 41.5% 31.0% 31.3% 22.0% 28.4% 9.0% 20.9% 3.9% 9.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 24.9% 37.1% 28.0% 28.0% 13.6% 27.9% 0.0% 21.5% 3.5% 8.1%
Logistic Regression 20.3% 49.8% 46.7% 46.7% 43.3% 30.8% 15.2% 26.6% 7.5% 12.6%
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Haikui at 08/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.5% 24.8% 16.4% 9.2% 16.4% 19.1% 7.7% 7.3% 0.3% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 17.7% 33.3% 25.1% 25.1% 20.5% 17.2% 3.4% 7.3% 1.4% 2.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.3% 30.4% 22.2% 19.8% 19.1% 17.8% 4.8% 7.2% 1.0% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.4% 28.4% 20.6% 20.6% 12.8% 15.7% 0.0% 5.3% 0.3% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 13.1% 38.2% 29.6% 29.6% 28.2% 18.6% 6.8% 9.2% 2.4% 3.0%
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AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.5% 24.8% 16.4% 9.2% 16.4% 19.1% 7.7% 7.3% 0.3% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 17.7% 33.3% 25.1% 25.1% 20.5% 17.2% 3.4% 7.3% 1.4% 2.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.3% 30.4% 22.2% 19.8% 19.1% 17.8% 4.8% 7.2% 1.0% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.4% 28.4% 20.6% 20.6% 12.8% 15.7% 0.0% 5.3% 0.3% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 13.1% 38.2% 29.6% 29.6% 28.2% 18.6% 6.8% 9.2% 2.4% 3.0%
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Haikui at 08/31/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.9% 50.8% 39.9% 26.0% 21.0% 27.7% 9.9% 21.1% 3.7% 15.0% RIPA Consensus 41.2% 55.8% 48.9% 47.0% 45.8% 34.9% 9.8% 26.5% 10.6% 16.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.4% 54.1% 45.8% 39.9% 37.5% 32.5% 9.8% 24.7% 8.3% 16.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 51.3% 51.2% 43.7% 39.9% 37.9% 32.1% 0.0% 22.6% 7.2% 11.3%
Logistic Regression 31.0% 60.4% 54.0% 54.0% 53.7% 37.7% 19.6% 30.4% 14.1% 22.0%
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Haikui at 08/31/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.2% 61.1% 50.0% 37.9% 27.1% 43.1% 31.7% 34.8% 12.3% 34.9% RIPA Consensus 31.2% 64.0% 56.9% 55.8% 47.6% 48.4% 19.1% 32.8% 12.4% 23.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.2% 63.0% 54.6% 49.8% 40.7% 46.6% 23.3% 33.4% 12.3% 27.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 31.7% 55.6% 44.8% 42.6% 27.4% 40.0% 0.0% 27.4% 6.9% 18.2%
Logistic Regression 30.8% 72.3% 69.0% 69.0% 67.8% 56.7% 38.2% 38.2% 17.8% 29.3%
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Haikui at 08/31/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 35.0% 21.1% 5.2% 3.8% 13.0% 4.6% 18.7% 0.4% 26.3% RIPA Consensus 7.5% 33.9% 23.9% 22.8% 18.2% 28.5% 9.3% 24.1% 7.0% 21.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 34.2% 22.9% 16.9% 13.3% 23.3% 7.7% 22.2% 4.8% 22.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.6% 21.5% 13.2% 11.0% 3.0% 19.9% 0.0% 22.0% 4.1% 18.5%
Logistic Regression 9.3% 46.3% 34.5% 34.5% 33.4% 37.2% 18.5% 26.1% 9.9% 23.5%
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Haikui at 08/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.5% 50.6% 39.4% 14.4% 7.6% 24.6% 12.9% 21.2% 3.3% 18.8% RIPA Consensus 14.3% 48.6% 36.1% 35.8% 26.8% 40.3% 16.0% 36.8% 16.7% 30.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.3% 49.3% 37.1% 28.7% 20.4% 35.1% 14.9% 31.6% 12.2% 26.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.7% 37.4% 22.3% 21.8% 5.5% 28.6% 0.0% 33.7% 11.8% 26.4%
Logistic Regression 16.8% 59.9% 49.9% 49.9% 48.1% 52.1% 31.9% 39.9% 21.7% 33.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.7% 36.5% 21.7% 16.0% 3.0% 27.3% 12.7% 20.8% 9.4% 33.3% RIPA Consensus 12.8% 46.5% 33.4% 31.6% 26.0% 38.4% 13.9% 36.6% 15.9% 29.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.4% 43.1% 29.5% 26.4% 18.3% 34.7% 13.5% 31.3% 13.7% 30.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.9% 36.0% 21.7% 18.0% 8.0% 28.6% 0.0% 34.7% 11.1% 25.3%
Logistic Regression 13.7% 57.1% 45.2% 45.2% 44.0% 48.2% 27.8% 38.6% 20.7% 32.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 20.7% 4.6% 1.5% 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 10.6% 0.3% 28.6% RIPA Consensus 4.8% 26.7% 15.3% 12.0% 11.4% 21.8% 4.3% 21.4% 6.8% 17.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 24.7% 11.7% 8.4% 7.6% 15.4% 3.2% 17.8% 4.6% 21.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.6% 19.4% 11.6% 5.3% 4.1% 19.1% 0.0% 23.8% 6.6% 20.6%
Logistic Regression 5.0% 34.0% 19.1% 18.6% 18.6% 24.6% 8.7% 19.0% 6.9% 14.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.3% 54.3% 35.2% 9.1% 8.1% 25.4% 12.0% 33.0% 11.6% 46.4% RIPA Consensus 17.7% 58.2% 47.0% 43.8% 36.4% 48.9% 18.9% 45.5% 20.6% 34.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.5% 56.8% 43.1% 32.2% 26.9% 41.0% 16.5% 41.3% 17.6% 38.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.7% 48.8% 33.8% 27.3% 14.4% 40.1% 0.0% 44.0% 16.6% 33.1%
Logistic Regression 19.7% 67.5% 60.3% 60.3% 58.3% 57.7% 37.7% 47.0% 24.7% 35.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 17.0% 4.4% 4.0% 1.8% 14.8% 11.4% 25.6% 8.3% 39.6% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 24.3% 14.3% 11.2% 9.9% 23.7% 4.4% 27.3% 10.7% 30.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 21.8% 10.9% 8.8% 7.2% 20.7% 6.7% 26.7% 9.9% 33.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 17.9% 11.6% 5.8% 3.1% 23.4% 0.0% 32.0% 13.3% 39.3%
Logistic Regression 4.0% 30.6% 16.9% 16.7% 16.7% 24.1% 8.8% 22.6% 8.2% 22.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/29/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 26.2% 21.5% 9.0% 5.2% 24.4% 12.2% 29.8% 10.3% 43.1% RIPA Consensus 14.5% 50.5% 35.4% 34.0% 25.4% 40.8% 13.3% 31.5% 13.7% 27.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.5% 42.4% 30.8% 25.6% 18.6% 35.3% 12.9% 30.9% 12.5% 32.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.4% 46.1% 28.7% 25.7% 10.2% 33.5% 0.0% 30.0% 9.9% 22.1%
Logistic Regression 12.7% 54.9% 42.2% 42.2% 40.6% 48.0% 26.6% 33.0% 17.5% 32.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/29/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.7% 53.4% 32.8% 11.9% 9.2% 37.6% 28.6% 44.3% 28.3% 57.7% RIPA Consensus 21.0% 61.1% 46.8% 46.8% 32.6% 60.9% 31.0% 52.2% 38.3% 50.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.2% 58.5% 42.1% 35.1% 24.7% 53.1% 30.2% 49.5% 34.9% 53.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.6% 53.2% 37.0% 37.0% 10.5% 45.0% 0.0% 48.5% 24.7% 39.9%
Logistic Regression 20.4% 68.9% 56.6% 56.6% 54.6% 76.9% 62.0% 55.9% 51.8% 61.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/28/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.0% 57.2% 31.1% 18.9% 15.1% 31.7% 21.9% 29.5% 25.5% 60.0% RIPA Consensus 6.7% 37.8% 23.4% 21.5% 16.7% 40.6% 18.2% 36.1% 26.7% 50.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 44.3% 26.0% 20.5% 16.1% 37.6% 19.4% 33.9% 26.3% 53.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.8% 25.2% 15.2% 12.1% 2.8% 22.6% 0.0% 34.7% 18.8% 43.5%
Logistic Regression 7.5% 50.5% 31.7% 30.8% 30.6% 58.7% 36.4% 37.5% 34.6% 58.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Haikui at 08/28/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 8.2% 2.6% 1.7% 0.6% 5.2% 6.1% 21.4% 8.5% 50.9% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 18.0% 8.3% 7.1% 5.6% 25.2% 9.0% 24.5% 18.0% 47.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 14.7% 6.4% 5.3% 3.9% 18.5% 8.0% 23.4% 14.7% 48.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 8.6% 4.4% 3.2% 0.2% 10.7% 0.0% 25.9% 15.7% 45.1%
Logistic Regression 3.2% 27.4% 12.3% 11.0% 11.0% 39.7% 18.1% 23.0% 20.2% 49.3%
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