Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index

 

current 12w intensity image current 12w RI diff image

 


Twelve at 09/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Yun-yeung at 09/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Yun-yeung at 09/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
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Yun-yeung at 09/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
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Yun-yeung at 09/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
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Yun-yeung at 09/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 5.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 3.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
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Yun-yeung at 09/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 3.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1%
Logistic Regression 1.3% 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6%
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Yun-yeung at 09/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 6.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 9.6% 3.7% 3.0% 2.9% 5.2% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 1.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 8.4% 3.1% 2.4% 2.2% 3.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 4.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
Logistic Regression 2.9% 14.8% 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 8.9% 2.0% 2.2% 0.8% 1.1%
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Yun-yeung at 09/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 4.1% 13.2% 6.0% 5.0% 4.7% 6.9% 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 9.1% 4.1% 3.3% 3.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 6.4% 4.3% 2.2% 1.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
Logistic Regression 4.7% 20.1% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 11.6% 2.9% 2.6% 1.3% 1.6%
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Yun-yeung at 09/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.1% 34.1% 19.9% 14.8% 8.8% 15.4% 7.2% 6.7% 3.8% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 5.7% 31.5% 18.0% 17.3% 13.6% 33.5% 15.7% 16.8% 11.7% 12.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 32.3% 18.6% 16.4% 11.9% 27.4% 12.8% 13.4% 9.0% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 17.9% 9.6% 8.5% 1.1% 13.4% 0.0% 12.7% 7.3% 10.7%
Logistic Regression 7.5% 45.1% 26.4% 26.0% 26.0% 53.5% 31.4% 20.8% 16.1% 14.0%
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12w at 09/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 17.1% 18.8% 5.9% 1.1% 10.6% 3.5% 8.0% 3.2% 4.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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