Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Thirteen at 09/26/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 8.9% 4.1% 0.9% 0.8% 2.7% 0.5% 5.1% 5.2% 16.2% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.9% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 6.8% 1.7% 6.2% 2.0% 8.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 7.5% 2.9% 1.6% 1.5% 5.4% 1.3% 5.8% 3.0% 11.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 3.4%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 11.5% 4.3% 3.8% 3.8% 12.4% 3.4% 8.1% 3.8% 13.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 09/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 20.2% 6.2% 0.7% 0.5% 7.7% 1.9% 9.4% 7.5% 29.4% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 14.7% 6.2% 5.9% 5.1% 14.3% 5.1% 11.6% 5.3% 13.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 16.5% 6.1% 4.1% 3.5% 12.1% 4.0% 10.8% 6.0% 19.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 6.7% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 2.8% 0.0% 7.2% 0.5% 4.9%
Logistic Regression 2.2% 22.7% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 25.8% 10.2% 15.9% 10.1% 22.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 09/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 14.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 2.1% 1.0% 10.8% 5.0% 16.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 09/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 16.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% 4.5% 0.9% 17.3% 10.2% 37.7% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 15.9% 6.2% 5.5% 4.5% 17.2% 5.8% 11.5% 5.8% 22.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 16.1% 4.7% 3.7% 3.1% 12.9% 4.2% 13.4% 7.3% 27.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 8.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 8.0% 1.3% 12.0%
Logistic Regression 2.9% 23.6% 9.7% 8.9% 8.9% 29.8% 11.7% 14.9% 10.4% 33.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Past 2023 W Pacific TCs