Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Wp1423 intensity image current Wp1423 RI diff image

 


Koinu at 10/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 5.0% 1.0% 4.6% 1.1% 5.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 3.4% 0.6% 3.3% 0.7% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 3.5% 0.5% 3.4%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.2% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 9.2% 2.0% 5.7% 1.8% 7.5%
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Koinu at 10/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6%
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Koinu at 10/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 12.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 8.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 22.5%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 1.9%
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Koinu at 10/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/08/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 2.9% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/08/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 8.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 4.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.5%
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Koinu at 10/08/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/08/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 9.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 6.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 4.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 4.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 12.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 6.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 6.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.7% 5.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.7% 16.9% 3.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.3% 9.6% 7.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8% 0.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 12.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 10.7% 0.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 6.9% 6.9% 4.3% 4.3% 27.5% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.4% 12.4% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 4.0% 1.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 15.9% 1.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 5.9% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 12.2% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 9.2% 3.4% 3.0% 3.3% 8.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 22.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.5% 7.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 2.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/06/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 10.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.4% 9.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 21.8% 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 9.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 14.6% 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.3% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 39.5% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.5% 10.4% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 4.1% 1.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/06/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 24.7% 4.2% 2.5% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 40.0% 39.2% 36.5% 36.5% 36.5% 47.1% 5.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 29.4% 34.4% 25.7% 25.2% 25.2% 31.4% 3.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.5% 46.5% 46.5% 46.5% 46.5% 73.8% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 19.5% 32.0% 26.6% 26.6% 26.6% 20.3% 10.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/06/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.0% 33.0% 5.5% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 46.4% 46.8% 45.3% 45.3% 45.3% 50.6% 8.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 37.6% 42.1% 32.0% 32.0% 31.2% 34.1% 6.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 64.2% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 47.5% 70.3% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 28.7% 46.0% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 30.8% 17.8% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/06/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.8% 24.4% 2.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 9.2% 24.0% 21.8% 21.0% 21.0% 16.8% 1.7% 14.6% 2.0% 5.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.7% 24.1% 15.2% 14.7% 14.5% 11.5% 1.2% 10.5% 1.6% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.5% 17.4% 17.2% 15.5% 15.5% 23.7% 0.0% 14.0% 2.5% 8.3%
Logistic Regression 7.9% 30.7% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 10.0% 3.4% 15.2% 1.6% 3.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/05/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 7.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.1% 3.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 0.2% 5.3% 0.2% 4.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 4.8% 0.0% 5.2% 0.2% 7.5%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 8.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 2.0% 0.5% 5.4% 0.3% 1.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/05/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/05/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 6.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/05/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 14.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 6.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Koinu at 10/04/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.3% 27.7% 8.7% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.8% 6.0% 4.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 13.2% 5.8% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.5% 5.2% 4.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 3.1% 6.9% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/04/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.2% 24.0% 10.7% 6.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 18.5% 13.0% 11.1% 11.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.0% 16.6% 10.9% 9.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.7% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 7.2% 11.9% 8.1% 8.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/04/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.6% 10.1% 5.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 25.7% 16.0% 14.1% 14.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.3% 14.0% 11.0% 9.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.3% 20.7% 20.7% 20.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 8.2% 11.3% 7.4% 7.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/04/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.9% 11.8% 9.2% 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 9.7% 11.2% 9.1% 9.1% 3.8% 17.7% 1.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.0% 11.3% 9.1% 6.1% 3.1% 12.1% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.4% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 1.6% 29.7% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.9% 11.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.0% 5.7% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/03/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.5% 15.8% 9.8% 4.2% 2.4% 6.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 2.6% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 4.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 7.0% 4.4% 2.5% 1.4% 5.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 6.9% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/03/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.8% 10.6% 4.9% 1.7% 2.8% 3.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 4.8% 2.5% 1.4% 1.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/03/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.9% 6.5% 3.4% 0.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/03/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.9% 10.7% 11.1% 1.8% 2.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.9% 4.5% 4.3% 1.2% 1.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/02/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.6% 21.6% 17.3% 5.9% 4.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 6.9% 4.4% 3.4% 3.3% 1.3% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.1% 10.1% 8.0% 4.1% 2.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 0.5% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.9% 4.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/02/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.3% 27.7% 16.3% 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 15.6% 8.5% 7.0% 7.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.5% 14.9% 10.1% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.3% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 6.0% 6.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/02/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 38.6% 26.2% 23.5% 23.5% 11.2% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 56.7% 30.4% 30.4% 30.4% 7.8% 44.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 20.5% 21.9% 16.5% 16.5% 14.6% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/02/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 39.7% 22.9% 6.1% 3.9% 5.8% 5.2% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 40.3% 33.4% 30.5% 30.5% 16.1% 27.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.1% 29.9% 22.3% 21.6% 12.7% 19.9% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.3% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 11.8% 42.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 20.4% 28.9% 23.0% 23.0% 20.5% 12.7% 5.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/01/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 38.6% 56.3% 41.3% 35.5% 24.7% 27.7% 9.1% 6.1% 1.6% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 61.0% 70.5% 70.4% 70.4% 50.7% 34.4% 7.4% 8.6% 2.3% 2.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 53.5% 65.7% 60.6% 58.7% 42.0% 32.1% 8.0% 7.7% 2.0% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 73.2% 72.3% 72.3% 72.3% 36.1% 38.3% 0.0% 7.3% 1.4% 1.7%
Logistic Regression 48.9% 68.6% 68.4% 68.4% 65.3% 30.6% 14.9% 9.8% 3.2% 3.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/01/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 43.9% 58.5% 48.8% 50.4% 38.0% 43.1% 23.3% 22.0% 4.1% 12.4% RIPA Consensus 76.9% 89.7% 89.7% 89.7% 72.6% 59.1% 22.4% 26.5% 9.4% 10.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 65.9% 79.3% 76.0% 76.6% 61.0% 53.7% 22.7% 24.9% 7.6% 11.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 85.4% 92.9% 92.9% 92.9% 60.2% 56.4% 0.0% 22.0% 7.1% 9.8%
Logistic Regression 68.4% 86.5% 86.5% 86.5% 85.0% 61.7% 44.8% 30.9% 11.8% 11.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/01/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 36.9% 59.7% 56.5% 38.5% 40.4% 46.4% 34.5% 44.6% 11.0% 32.1% RIPA Consensus 61.6% 80.0% 79.1% 79.1% 62.6% 61.1% 25.0% 32.5% 16.5% 18.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 53.3% 73.2% 71.5% 65.5% 55.2% 56.1% 28.1% 36.5% 14.6% 23.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 71.2% 78.7% 78.7% 78.7% 47.0% 55.3% 0.0% 29.6% 13.7% 19.2%
Logistic Regression 52.0% 81.3% 79.4% 79.4% 78.2% 66.9% 50.0% 35.4% 19.2% 17.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 10/01/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.5% 45.8% 38.3% 25.4% 21.4% 31.1% 22.6% 29.8% 12.4% 31.0% RIPA Consensus 32.2% 60.2% 50.4% 50.4% 35.3% 46.3% 16.8% 26.6% 15.7% 16.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.6% 55.4% 46.4% 42.1% 30.6% 41.2% 18.7% 27.6% 14.5% 21.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.7% 55.2% 47.1% 47.1% 17.3% 38.3% 0.0% 25.3% 14.4% 16.8%
Logistic Regression 25.7% 65.2% 53.8% 53.8% 53.3% 54.2% 33.6% 27.9% 16.9% 16.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 09/30/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.5% 49.9% 43.4% 13.0% 14.1% 29.4% 21.7% 32.8% 18.6% 34.4% RIPA Consensus 18.3% 70.2% 52.5% 44.7% 40.1% 61.9% 27.5% 51.5% 32.9% 47.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.7% 63.4% 49.5% 34.1% 31.4% 51.0% 25.5% 45.2% 28.1% 42.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.1% 65.7% 43.3% 27.7% 19.7% 50.3% 0.0% 50.7% 24.8% 49.7%
Logistic Regression 18.5% 74.7% 61.8% 61.8% 60.6% 73.5% 55.1% 52.2% 41.0% 44.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 09/30/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.4% 21.7% 8.9% 2.6% 1.9% 9.0% 5.1% 16.5% 4.3% 28.1% RIPA Consensus 10.1% 52.6% 30.1% 23.4% 23.4% 50.4% 16.6% 42.7% 26.9% 48.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.9% 42.3% 23.0% 16.4% 16.2% 36.5% 12.7% 33.9% 19.3% 41.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.4% 48.2% 26.6% 13.9% 13.9% 40.3% 0.0% 48.5% 24.8% 56.0%
Logistic Regression 8.9% 57.0% 33.5% 32.8% 32.8% 60.4% 33.3% 36.9% 28.9% 40.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 09/30/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 8.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 2.4% 1.2% 8.8% 2.0% 27.1% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 14.5% 6.1% 4.0% 3.2% 18.8% 3.7% 19.7% 15.6% 35.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 12.5% 5.0% 2.9% 2.1% 13.3% 2.8% 16.0% 11.0% 32.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 10.2% 5.6% 2.3% 0.7% 12.8% 0.0% 25.0% 22.5% 47.3%
Logistic Regression 2.1% 18.8% 6.6% 5.6% 5.6% 24.8% 7.3% 14.3% 8.7% 22.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 09/30/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 9.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 5.8% 0.7% 17.8% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 17.1% 6.9% 4.2% 3.9% 19.8% 4.2% 21.2% 17.0% 37.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 14.7% 5.0% 2.8% 2.6% 13.8% 3.0% 16.0% 11.6% 30.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 11.4% 5.6% 1.6% 1.1% 11.4% 0.0% 27.2% 22.7% 47.5%
Logistic Regression 1.9% 22.8% 8.1% 6.8% 6.8% 28.2% 8.5% 15.1% 11.4% 26.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 09/29/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 9.6% 3.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 18.5% 1.4% 31.6% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 26.3% 11.6% 7.6% 6.6% 40.9% 12.0% 47.8% 34.1% 69.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 20.7% 8.7% 5.3% 4.5% 27.7% 8.2% 38.0% 23.2% 56.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 21.9% 11.4% 4.1% 2.1% 31.0% 0.0% 50.8% 25.2% 61.9%
Logistic Regression 2.4% 30.7% 11.8% 11.1% 11.1% 50.8% 24.0% 44.7% 43.0% 76.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image

 


Wp1423 at 09/29/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 13.0% 2.8% 1.6% 0.3% 4.4% 1.7% 5.5% 2.2% 18.4% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 17.9% 6.3% 3.8% 3.5% 20.4% 4.3% 19.8% 17.4% 47.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 16.2% 5.1% 3.0% 2.4% 15.1% 3.4% 15.0% 12.3% 38.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 13.2% 5.0% 1.3% 0.7% 12.2% 0.0% 26.7% 24.5% 60.2%
Logistic Regression 1.9% 22.6% 7.5% 6.2% 6.2% 28.7% 8.6% 13.0% 10.4% 35.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
current Atlantic image current Atlantic image
current Atlantic image



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