CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index (Reference)

Invest at 10/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 11 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Invest at 10/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 29 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Invest at 10/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 71 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 81 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 94 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 97 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 113 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 123 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 133 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/12/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 136 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/12/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	3.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/12/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 138 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	7.1%	1.7%	1.7%	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	2.3%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/11/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 143 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	8.1%	1.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	2.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/11/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 140 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	17.5%	7.6%	12.6%	0.2%	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	5.8%	2.5%	4.2%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/11/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 135 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	24.8%	20.0%	16.3%	0.7%	2.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	8.2%	6.6%	5.4%	0.2%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/11/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 140 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	47.8%	16.9%	3.4%	3.1%	4.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	30.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	36.3%	5.6%	1.1%	1.0%	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	61.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/10/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 149 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	55.5%	63.0%	67.9%	57.5%	47.8%	41.1%	23.8%	19.9%	5.5%	3.7%	RIPA Consensus	61.4%	80.2%	76.7%	72.4%	70.7%	81.9%	26.3%	33.7%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	59.4%	74.4%	73.8%	67.4%	63.0%	68.2%	25.5%	29.0%	1.8%	1.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	77.7%	84.2%	78.7%	70.0%	69.3%	96.9%	0.0%	46.5%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	45.2%	76.1%	74.8%	74.8%	72.0%	66.8%	52.7%	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/10/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 142 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	39.7%	68.6%	73.0%	58.3%	43.8%	54.3%	36.5%	44.8%	32.3%	23.0%	RIPA Consensus	38.7%	74.4%	68.2%	62.2%	62.2%	57.6%	10.8%	46.5%	18.0%	25.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	39.0%	72.4%	69.8%	60.9%	56.0%	56.5%	19.4%	45.9%	22.7%	24.7%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	50.5%	76.6%	69.4%	57.4%	57.4%	71.7%	0.0%	50.6%	24.8%	43.1%
											Logistic Regression	26.9%	72.2%	67.0%	67.0%	67.0%	43.5%	21.7%	42.3%	11.2%	8.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/10/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 140 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	21.5%	59.6%	46.7%	34.2%	17.6%	43.5%	24.4%	45.2%	26.3%	29.0%	RIPA Consensus	48.5%	78.6%	74.3%	68.0%	65.2%	69.6%	21.6%	55.2%	25.5%	40.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	39.5%	72.2%	65.1%	56.7%	49.3%	60.9%	22.5%	51.8%	25.7%	36.6%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	60.3%	78.9%	74.3%	61.7%	56.3%	75.8%	0.0%	51.3%	24.8%	59.4%
											Logistic Regression	36.7%	78.3%	74.4%	74.4%	74.1%	63.5%	43.1%	59.1%	26.1%	21.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/10/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 141 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	33.9%	61.3%	47.8%	48.9%	38.7%	54.7%	37.4%	45.4%	32.6%	42.5%	RIPA Consensus	71.6%	92.7%	92.7%	92.7%	92.4%	81.9%	32.7%	61.0%	35.0%	46.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	59.0%	82.2%	77.7%	78.1%	74.5%	72.8%	34.2%	55.7%	34.2%	45.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	78.3%	94.3%	94.3%	94.3%	94.3%	84.9%	0.0%	51.8%	25.0%	56.5%
											Logistic Regression	64.8%	91.1%	91.1%	91.1%	90.5%	78.9%	65.4%	70.2%	45.1%	36.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/09/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 142 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	32.5%	68.8%	68.9%	44.6%	40.8%	56.1%	31.6%	48.6%	26.2%	50.6%	RIPA Consensus	31.0%	71.9%	62.4%	54.2%	53.7%	64.5%	22.9%	55.2%	27.9%	47.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	31.5%	70.8%	64.6%	51.0%	49.4%	61.7%	25.8%	52.9%	27.3%	48.4%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	30.1%	67.4%	54.1%	37.7%	37.7%	63.3%	0.0%	51.3%	24.8%	60.9%
											Logistic Regression	31.9%	76.3%	70.8%	70.8%	69.7%	65.8%	45.8%	59.0%	31.1%	33.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/09/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	27.4%	44.2%	21.2%	20.0%	18.1%	35.8%	13.1%	28.9%	17.6%	54.6%	RIPA Consensus	15.0%	54.7%	41.0%	33.9%	33.4%	48.1%	15.1%	51.0%	24.3%	52.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	19.1%	51.1%	34.4%	29.2%	28.3%	44.0%	14.4%	43.6%	22.0%	53.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	12.4%	46.8%	30.7%	16.5%	16.5%	44.2%	0.0%	51.1%	24.8%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	17.6%	62.5%	51.3%	51.3%	50.4%	52.0%	30.2%	50.8%	23.8%	43.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/09/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	10.4%	39.4%	20.8%	10.7%	5.9%	28.1%	13.3%	31.8%	5.4%	46.7%	RIPA Consensus	39.0%	78.6%	71.4%	64.8%	57.7%	64.8%	23.5%	54.9%	30.6%	54.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	29.4%	65.5%	54.5%	46.8%	40.4%	52.5%	20.0%	47.1%	22.2%	51.9%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	43.6%	76.7%	67.3%	54.3%	40.8%	62.6%	0.0%	51.3%	24.8%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	34.3%	80.4%	75.4%	75.4%	74.6%	67.0%	47.0%	58.4%	36.5%	47.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/09/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 149 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	12.9%	35.4%	17.2%	6.0%	3.1%	21.8%	11.7%	30.7%	9.6%	50.3%	RIPA Consensus	30.4%	79.2%	69.3%	67.6%	51.3%	69.1%	31.8%	57.6%	36.1%	61.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	24.5%	64.5%	51.9%	N/A	35.1%	53.3%	25.0%	48.6%	27.2%	57.4%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	32.9%	76.0%	59.8%	56.4%	26.4%	60.5%	0.0%	51.5%	24.8%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	27.9%	82.3%	78.8%	78.8%	76.1%	77.8%	63.5%	63.8%	47.3%	60.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/07/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	19.1%	49.8%	33.0%	12.4%	3.9%	34.6%	18.1%	34.6%	35.6%	47.9%	RIPA Consensus	14.5%	67.4%	48.4%	42.2%	35.0%	65.7%	36.4%	67.6%	66.1%	75.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	16.0%	61.5%	43.2%	32.2%	24.6%	55.3%	30.3%	56.6%	55.9%	66.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	9.2%	57.7%	31.5%	19.1%	7.5%	47.2%	0.0%	56.0%	56.0%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	19.9%	77.2%	65.3%	65.3%	62.5%	84.1%	72.8%	79.2%	76.2%	88.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bolaven at 10/07/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	7.8%	43.7%	16.6%	9.2%	3.7%	20.3%	12.5%	28.9%	20.8%	51.0%	RIPA Consensus	12.5%	63.5%	42.3%	38.0%	38.0%	65.2%	31.1%	62.6%	62.1%	73.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	10.9%	56.9%	33.7%	28.3%	26.5%	50.2%	24.8%	51.4%	48.3%	66.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	10.9%	56.5%	33.6%	26.4%	26.4%	50.5%	0.0%	58.4%	58.4%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	14.0%	70.6%	51.0%	49.6%	49.6%	79.9%	62.1%	66.9%	65.9%	85.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fifteen at 10/07/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	8.3%	33.9%	12.9%	9.9%	6.8%	20.8%	11.8%	27.3%	22.7%	45.9%	RIPA Consensus	9.0%	57.5%	36.0%	30.1%	30.0%	61.7%	32.5%	43.2%	50.0%	71.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	8.7%	49.6%	28.3%	23.3%	22.2%	48.0%	25.5%	37.9%	40.9%	63.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	6.9%	47.7%	24.8%	15.2%	15.2%	42.5%	0.0%	51.7%	34.8%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	11.1%	67.3%	47.2%	45.0%	44.8%	80.9%	65.0%	34.8%	65.3%	82.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fifteen at 10/07/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 153 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	6.6%	17.6%	11.6%	3.0%	2.4%	12.2%	9.1%	26.8%	8.9%	42.9%	RIPA Consensus	8.4%	63.6%	41.5%	33.0%	32.6%	68.7%	39.7%	90.9%	87.7%	78.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	7.8%	48.2%	31.5%	22.9%	22.5%	49.8%	29.5%	69.5%	61.4%	66.3%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	3.9%	52.0%	23.8%	9.2%	9.2%	49.0%	0.0%	90.9%	90.9%	61.9%
											Logistic Regression	13.0%	75.2%	59.2%	56.7%	55.9%	88.4%	79.4%	90.9%	84.6%	94.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Past 2023 W Pacific TCs