Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Sixteen intensity image current Sixteen RI diff image

 


Sanba at 10/20/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 3.3% 0.6% 3.2% 1.2% 7.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.7% 1.0% 8.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 4.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 6.1% 1.1% 3.6% 1.4% 7.3%
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Sanba at 10/20/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 13.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 9.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.8% 1.2% 19.6%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6% 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 7.8%
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Sanba at 10/20/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.5% 8.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.2%
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Sanba at 10/20/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 13.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Sanba at 10/19/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 24.3% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 2.7% 0.9% 2.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 2.9% 0.7% 1.8% 0.6% 9.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 6.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 7.8% 2.1% 4.4% 1.6% 3.8%
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Sanba at 10/19/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 7.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.0% 7.2% 2.3% 5.4% 2.6% 19.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.3% 4.8% 1.5% 3.6% 1.8% 13.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 5.1% 1.9% 23.0%
Logistic Regression 2.0% 11.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 13.6% 4.6% 5.7% 3.4% 16.0%
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Sanba at 10/19/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 4.6% 1.0% 4.0% 3.2% 18.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.1% 0.7% 2.6% 2.1% 12.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 5.0% 4.6% 26.0%
Logistic Regression 1.5% 7.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 7.7% 2.0% 3.0% 1.7% 11.2%
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Sanba at 10/19/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 3.7% 1.6% 1.1% 2.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 14.7% 7.0% 5.5% 4.7% 10.9% 3.5% 6.0% 4.1% 16.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 11.0% 5.2% 4.0% 4.1% 7.9% 2.4% 4.0% 2.8% 10.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 7.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.3% 2.8% 0.0% 6.2% 4.5% 19.9%
Logistic Regression 4.2% 21.9% 11.0% 9.5% 9.2% 19.1% 7.0% 5.8% 3.7% 12.9%
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Sanba at 10/18/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 7.8% 3.6% 1.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 16.4% 8.2% 6.3% 5.6% 13.7% 3.8% 9.0% 5.8% 21.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 13.5% 6.7% 4.6% 4.7% 9.3% 2.6% 6.1% 4.0% 14.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 8.5% 4.4% 2.0% 0.6% 6.3% 0.0% 10.1% 7.3% 28.3%
Logistic Regression 4.3% 24.3% 12.1% 10.7% 10.7% 21.1% 7.7% 8.0% 4.3% 13.9%
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Sanba at 10/18/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 16.6% 10.2% 7.7% 8.3% 5.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 8.1% 38.6% 23.8% 21.1% 17.0% 32.9% 15.5% 17.7% 13.3% 24.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 31.2% 19.2% 16.6% 14.1% 23.6% 10.6% 12.1% 9.1% 16.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 25.6% 12.9% 8.4% 1.6% 13.7% 0.0% 17.2% 12.5% 26.9%
Logistic Regression 11.9% 51.6% 34.7% 33.8% 32.5% 52.0% 31.1% 18.2% 14.2% 21.6%
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Sixteen at 10/18/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 18.6% 11.5% 1.6% 4.1% 3.4% 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 8.0% 41.3% 26.6% 24.6% 19.6% 35.1% 17.0% 22.8% 16.9% 27.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 33.7% 21.6% 16.9% 14.4% 24.5% 11.5% 15.8% 11.5% 18.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 27.1% 14.1% 10.5% 1.6% 15.5% 0.0% 21.5% 15.3% 29.6%
Logistic Regression 11.9% 55.5% 39.2% 38.7% 37.6% 54.6% 34.0% 24.1% 18.5% 25.0%
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Sixteen at 10/18/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 6.0% 3.3% 1.0% 1.1% 8.2% 0.9% 4.1% 1.3% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 29.3% 17.0% 15.1% 13.8% 35.0% 17.6% 34.7% 19.1% 32.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 21.5% 12.4% 10.4% 9.5% 26.0% 12.0% 24.5% 13.1% 22.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 13.5% 5.7% 3.1% 0.9% 13.7% 0.0% 29.5% 11.4% 29.6%
Logistic Regression 5.0% 45.0% 28.3% 27.2% 26.7% 56.4% 35.2% 39.9% 26.7% 35.9%
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Sixteen at 10/17/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 22.1% 10.5% 2.9% 2.3% 6.7% 2.3% 7.3% 2.7% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 20.4% 10.9% 9.7% 8.5% 28.1% 11.7% 26.8% 16.3% 34.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 20.9% 10.7% 7.4% 6.4% 20.9% 8.5% 20.3% 11.7% 23.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 9.2% 5.4% 3.4% 0.8% 12.5% 0.0% 23.8% 12.1% 32.6%
Logistic Regression 3.6% 31.6% 16.4% 16.1% 16.1% 43.7% 23.3% 29.8% 20.5% 36.0%
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Sixteen at 10/17/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.4% 26.2% 17.4% 8.1% 2.7% 6.8% 2.1% 5.8% 3.1% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 4.5% 37.3% 23.4% 21.5% 18.6% 48.6% 30.5% 47.4% 37.2% 48.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 33.6% 21.3% 17.0% 13.2% 34.6% 21.0% 33.5% 25.8% 32.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 19.2% 8.9% 6.2% 0.9% 21.8% 0.0% 42.1% 24.6% 42.2%
Logistic Regression 7.2% 55.5% 37.9% 36.9% 36.2% 75.5% 61.1% 52.7% 49.8% 54.4%
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