Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Seventeen at 11/16/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.7% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 10.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 8.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 12.9% Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 5.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.0% 7.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/15/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 3.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/15/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 7.2% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 1.8% 0.9% 6.2% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 3.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.8% 10.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 3.0% 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 8.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 14.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 6.5% 1.1% 1.8% 1.0% 5.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/15/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/15/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 6.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 2.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/14/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.7% 2.8% 0.9% 3.6% 4.8% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 4.1% 0.9% 2.7% 1.5% 6.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 3.6% 0.8% 3.0% 2.6% 5.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.9% 7.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 7.9% 1.7% 3.5% 2.1% 6.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/14/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 2.0% 7.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 3.7% 0.7% 2.3% 1.3% 11.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 2.9% 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 14.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 5.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 7.0% 1.3% 2.5% 1.5% 8.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/14/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 8.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 12.9% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 2.8% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 4.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/14/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.2% 10.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.8% 7.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.2% 1.6% 16.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 4.0% 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/13/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 7.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 13.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/13/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 6.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/13/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 4.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 3.4% 1.4% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 10.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 1.9% 0.8% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 12.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 4.0% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 4.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 3.4% 1.4% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 10.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 1.9% 0.8% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 12.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 4.0% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/13/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 11.4% 5.9% 0.9% 0.5% 2.6% 1.3% 4.7% 2.5% 11.7% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 3.2% 0.6% 2.4% 1.3% 11.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 3.0% 0.8% 3.1% 1.7% 11.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.8% 1.1% 15.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 1.2% 2.9% 1.5% 8.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seventeen at 11/12/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 3.8% 0.8% 9.9% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 9.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 2.2% 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 9.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 12.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 4.9% 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 6.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------