Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current One intensity image current One RI diff image

 


Alberto at 06/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.4% 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.9% 5.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.3% 2.0% 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Alberto at 06/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.1% 2.2% 1.4% 0.8% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.2% 9.1% 5.4% 3.8% 1.9% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Alberto at 06/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 13.0% 8.2% 4.1% 2.5% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.1% 17.4% 11.3% 8.2% 5.1% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 9.3% 18.7% 12.6% 3.7% 2.3% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 2.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Alberto at 06/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 13.1% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 4.8% 5.5% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.4% 16.2% 10.5% 7.6% 4.7% 10.5% 10.9% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 11.3% 15.1% 9.2% 4.0% 2.4% 3.0% 4.8% N/A
Bayesian 4.8% 7.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Alberto at 06/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 13.1% 6.5% 3.2% 2.0% 4.3% 4.6% 29.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.2% 16.9% 10.7% 7.5% 4.8% 9.1% 8.5% 14.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 8.0% 13.8% 6.9% 1.9% 1.3% 2.6% 5.3% 7.0%
Bayesian 2.6% 8.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 67.3%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Alberto at 06/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 9.7% 4.6% 2.4% 1.5% 4.2% 5.6% 31.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.5% 14.5% 9.0% 6.1% 3.7% 9.2% 10.1% 18.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.7% 10.3% 4.1% 1.1% 0.8% 3.0% 5.9% 15.8%
Bayesian 1.0% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 58.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 14.9% 6.7% 3.7% 2.5% 5.3% 4.4% 23.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.6% 24.3% 12.1% 8.5% 5.8% 11.3% 9.6% 16.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.7% 17.1% 7.1% 2.6% 1.6% 3.9% 3.4% 7.3%
Bayesian 0.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 45.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 12.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.3% 5.4% 5.1% 37.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.7% 23.4% 12.1% 8.7% 5.9% 11.8% 10.9% 19.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.1% 11.2% 5.3% 2.0% 0.9% 3.9% 3.9% 7.8%
Bayesian 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 86.7%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 12.2% 5.8% 3.3% 2.1% 4.8% 4.4% 16.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.6% 28.7% 12.6% 8.8% 6.1% 12.3% 11.9% 20.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.6% 7.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.8%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 26.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 11.3% 6.2% 3.5% 2.1% 5.3% 5.6% 38.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.8% 21.8% 11.8% 8.4% 5.8% 12.4% 12.1% 19.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.9% 11.4% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 3.3% 4.0% 5.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 91.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 9.6% 5.5% 3.3% 2.0% 5.1% 6.3% 28.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.5% 19.6% 11.6% 8.1% 5.5% 12.5% 13.5% 18.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.5% 9.1% 4.6% 1.7% 0.4% 2.7% 5.0% 2.5%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 65.6%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 23.3% 15.0% 7.4% 3.4% 11.1% 10.2% 39.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.8% 38.1% 23.0% 9.8% 6.7% 17.7% 17.7% 20.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.2% 29.5% 19.6% 11.4% 3.3% 12.9% 10.2% 5.6%
Bayesian 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 2.6% 2.5% 92.9%
DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 27.1% 18.6% 10.5% 4.2% 11.7% 10.3% 35.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.6% 38.1% 21.9% 9.5% 6.4% 15.6% 16.9% 21.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 9.6% 36.3% 28.0% 19.3% 5.4% 14.5% 8.0% 5.9%
Bayesian 4.3% 6.8% 5.9% 2.8% 0.8% 5.0% 5.9% 77.6%
DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------