Alberto at 06/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 136 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.2% |
2.4% |
1.4% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
0.9% |
5.0% |
2.6% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.3% |
2.0% |
1.4% |
1.8% |
1.1% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Alberto at 06/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.3% |
4.1% |
2.2% |
1.4% |
0.8% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.2% |
9.1% |
5.4% |
3.8% |
1.9% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.3% |
2.7% |
1.2% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Alberto at 06/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
5.4% |
13.0% |
8.2% |
4.1% |
2.5% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
4.1% |
17.4% |
11.3% |
8.2% |
5.1% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
9.3% |
18.7% |
12.6% |
3.7% |
2.3% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
2.8% |
3.0% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Alberto at 06/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
6.8% |
13.1% |
7.0% |
4.0% |
2.5% |
4.8% |
5.5% |
N/A |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
4.4% |
16.2% |
10.5% |
7.6% |
4.7% |
10.5% |
10.9% |
N/A |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
11.3% |
15.1% |
9.2% |
4.0% |
2.4% |
3.0% |
4.8% |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
4.8% |
7.9% |
1.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Alberto at 06/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 146 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
4.6% |
13.1% |
6.5% |
3.2% |
2.0% |
4.3% |
4.6% |
29.7% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.2% |
16.9% |
10.7% |
7.5% |
4.8% |
9.1% |
8.5% |
14.7% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
8.0% |
13.8% |
6.9% |
1.9% |
1.3% |
2.6% |
5.3% |
7.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
2.6% |
8.7% |
1.9% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
67.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Alberto at 06/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.8% |
9.7% |
4.6% |
2.4% |
1.5% |
4.2% |
5.6% |
31.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.5% |
14.5% |
9.0% |
6.1% |
3.7% |
9.2% |
10.1% |
18.7% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.7% |
10.3% |
4.1% |
1.1% |
0.8% |
3.0% |
5.9% |
15.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
1.0% |
4.5% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
58.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
2.3% |
14.9% |
6.7% |
3.7% |
2.5% |
5.3% |
4.4% |
23.1% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.6% |
24.3% |
12.1% |
8.5% |
5.8% |
11.3% |
9.6% |
16.8% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.7% |
17.1% |
7.1% |
2.6% |
1.6% |
3.9% |
3.4% |
7.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.6% |
3.4% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
45.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
2.1% |
12.3% |
6.0% |
3.6% |
2.3% |
5.4% |
5.1% |
37.9% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.7% |
23.4% |
12.1% |
8.7% |
5.9% |
11.8% |
10.9% |
19.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.1% |
11.2% |
5.3% |
2.0% |
0.9% |
3.9% |
3.9% |
7.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.6% |
2.3% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
86.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.9% |
12.2% |
5.8% |
3.3% |
2.1% |
4.8% |
4.4% |
16.2% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.6% |
28.7% |
12.6% |
8.8% |
6.1% |
12.3% |
11.9% |
20.7% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.6% |
7.3% |
4.0% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
1.7% |
1.3% |
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.6% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
26.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.8% |
11.3% |
6.2% |
3.5% |
2.1% |
5.3% |
5.6% |
38.5% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
2.8% |
21.8% |
11.8% |
8.4% |
5.8% |
12.4% |
12.1% |
19.1% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.9% |
11.4% |
6.5% |
2.1% |
0.5% |
3.3% |
4.0% |
5.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
91.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
3.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.5% |
9.6% |
5.5% |
3.3% |
2.0% |
5.1% |
6.3% |
28.8% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
2.5% |
19.6% |
11.6% |
8.1% |
5.5% |
12.5% |
13.5% |
18.1% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.5% |
9.1% |
4.6% |
1.7% |
0.4% |
2.7% |
5.0% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
65.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
5.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
4.1% |
23.3% |
15.0% |
7.4% |
3.4% |
11.1% |
10.2% |
39.5% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
4.8% |
38.1% |
23.0% |
9.8% |
6.7% |
17.7% |
17.7% |
20.1% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
5.2% |
29.5% |
19.6% |
11.4% |
3.3% |
12.9% |
10.2% |
5.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
2.2% |
2.1% |
2.4% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
92.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
2.0% |
7.0% |
3.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
One at 06/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
6.2% |
27.1% |
18.6% |
10.5% |
4.2% |
11.7% |
10.3% |
35.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
SHIPS-RII |
4.6% |
38.1% |
21.9% |
9.5% |
6.4% |
15.6% |
16.9% |
21.3% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Logistic Regression |
9.6% |
36.3% |
28.0% |
19.3% |
5.4% |
14.5% |
8.0% |
5.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
4.3% |
6.8% |
5.9% |
2.8% |
0.8% |
5.0% |
5.9% |
77.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
2.0% |
8.0% |
3.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
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