Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Two intensity image current Two RI diff image

 


Beryl at 07/11/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 6 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 50 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 25 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/10/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/09/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/09/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/09/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 8.2% 3.2% 3.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 6.5% 4.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 6.9% 3.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 16.8% 10.8% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 4.1% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.2% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.4% 7.8% 7.3% 3.8% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 6.5% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 6.8% 4.9% 3.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 15.7% 10.3% 7.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 3.9% 3.6% 1.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 3.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.6% 25.0% 28.2% 13.9% 6.2% 4.1% 1.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 12.6% 6.4% 4.0% 2.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 15.6% 11.8% 6.4% 3.5% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 28.4% 12.6% 9.2% 7.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 12.5% 14.1% 6.9% 3.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 9.2% 6.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.2% 17.1% 17.4% 6.0% 1.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 18.4% 10.9% 4.5% 2.9% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 18.1% 12.5% 4.8% 2.5% 4.8% 2.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 37.6% 20.5% 9.8% 7.5% 12.7% 9.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.6% 8.5% 8.7% 3.0% 0.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% Logistic Regression 6.0% 17.4% 12.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.7% 17.7% 25.2% 3.8% 4.1% 6.5% 4.4% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 24.9% 18.0% 7.7% 4.4% 7.5% 4.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 20.1% 16.5% 4.8% 3.4% 5.7% 4.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 43.2% 27.7% 15.5% 11.0% 18.7% 12.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 9.8% 13.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.2% 2.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 10.6% 31.0% 25.8% 7.4% 2.2% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 14.1% 12.1% 1.2% 0.2% 10.7% 2.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 16.5% 9.9% 4.1% 2.8% 6.4% 4.5% 3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 15.8% 10.4% 3.4% 2.1% 7.4% 3.8% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 35.0% 18.9% 9.9% 7.9% 17.3% 12.9% 10.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 13.5% 10.0% 2.6% 1.6% 5.3% 1.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 4.3% 14.0% 10.6% 2.5% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 8.1% 7.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 20.0% 13.2% 6.1% 3.5% 8.7% 6.0% 5.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 17.0% 11.8% 5.4% 3.0% 6.8% 4.6% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 31.8% 16.1% 9.5% 7.4% 17.8% 15.2% 15.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 7.0% 5.8% 2.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.5% Logistic Regression 9.8% 27.1% 22.5% 8.7% 3.1% 8.1% 2.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 13.8% 11.0% 4.9% 4.4% 7.2% 7.4% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 18.5% 12.7% 6.8% 3.8% 10.5% 8.6% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 17.3% 12.2% 6.3% 3.9% 9.6% 8.3% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 29.6% 14.9% 9.5% 7.4% 19.1% 19.7% 18.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 8.7% 24.1% 20.7% 10.8% 3.8% 11.6% 5.6% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 4.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.7% 8.0% 2.9% 6.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 8.5% 6.0% 4.1% 2.4% 5.8% 5.7% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 7.5% 5.0% 3.3% 1.9% 6.3% 5.0% 6.7% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 15.6% 10.1% 7.6% 5.8% 12.7% 14.5% 20.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 4.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8% 5.0% 1.9% 3.6% Logistic Regression 3.1% 9.4% 7.6% 4.7% 1.2% 4.5% 2.6% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 3.0% 4.8% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.6% 3.6% 2.8% 2.0% 4.8% 4.9% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.7% 3.0% 2.3% 1.5% 4.3% 4.9% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 14.3% 9.3% 7.4% 5.6% 12.3% 13.3% 18.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 2.0% 2.9% 1.4% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.2% 4.1% 3.4% 2.1% 5.0% 5.4% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 5.3% 3.3% 2.7% 1.7% 4.0% 4.0% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 14.9% 9.7% 7.7% 5.8% 12.3% 13.5% 20.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.6% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 3.1% 1.9% 3.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 4.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.9% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 3.8% 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 10.6% 6.2% 5.2% 4.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.8% 1.6% 0.2%
Bayesian 19.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 8.5% 2.5% 3.6% 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.2% 2.6% 2.2% 1.7% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 2.2% 8.9% 5.8% 4.8% 4.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 4.2% 1.2% 1.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 2.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.0% 9.5% 8.6% 5.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 6.9% 4.5% 4.2% 3.4% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 8.9% 6.5% 5.4% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 11.7% 8.3% 7.1% 6.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.0% 4.7% 4.3% 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.0% 5.4% 3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 5.2% 2.6% 0.4%
Bayesian 2.1% 3.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.2% 7.5% 13.8% 13.3% 5.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 6.9% 4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 3.8% 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 12.2% 8.7% 7.4% 6.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.6% 3.7% 6.9% 6.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 4.8% 4.4% 2.5% 3.9% 3.9% 4.7% 2.9% 0.6%
Bayesian 1.7% 4.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.6% 7.1% 6.2% 8.4% 5.6% 4.0% 0.5% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 5.4% 3.7% 4.2% 3.3% 3.6% 0.9% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 10.2% 7.1% 6.4% 5.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.8% 3.5% 3.1% 4.2% 2.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.9% 2.7% 3.1% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 8.7% 6.9% 2.5% 5.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.8% 3.4% 2.2% 2.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 8.3% 5.9% 5.5% 5.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 4.3% 3.4% 1.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 3.8% 5.0% 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.8% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 10.0% 7.3% 6.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.6% 2.7% 1.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 8.7% 6.2% 14.6% 11.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.7% 3.8% 5.8% 4.8% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 10.8% 7.6% 6.6% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.9% 4.3% 3.1% 7.3% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.5% 9.0% 9.7% 6.3% 8.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 4.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 5.5% 4.6% 3.6% 4.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 10.0% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.7% 4.5% 4.8% 3.1% 4.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.3% 3.3% 2.2% 3.7% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 8.1% 6.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.1% 1.6% 1.1% 1.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.8% 6.9% 6.9% 3.5% 6.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.1% 2.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 7.7% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 3.4% 3.4% 1.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.5% 5.7% 2.0% 2.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 5.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 2.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 5.0% 1.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 2.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.9% 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.0% 2.9% 2.1% 5.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 2.9% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 1.4% 1.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.2% 3.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Bayesian 3.6% 4.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.9% 6.9% 3.7% 4.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 7.1% 2.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 7.0% 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 3.4% 2.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 9.3% 8.7% 4.5% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 5.5% 12.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.3% 8.9% 3.1% 8.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 17.9% 13.7% 3.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.8% 12.8% 3.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 22.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.6% 4.9% 2.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 17.3% 8.6% 5.0% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 0.4%
Bayesian 14.3% 16.6% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 62.3% 44.1% 31.3% 27.5% 9.9% 13.8% 7.2% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 10.4% 5.6% 3.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.3% 18.8% 12.0% 9.3% 4.4% 3.8% 2.2% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 13.5% 9.8% 7.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 43.1% 27.0% 20.6% 14.7% 5.9% 6.9% 3.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 7.5% 4.5% 2.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3%
Bayesian 4.4% 13.1% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 24.0% 10.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 36.0% 49.1% 36.1% 36.4% 16.6% 20.1% 7.7% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.1% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 16.8% 11.5% 11.0% 6.0% 7.5% 2.2% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 11.2% 7.8% 6.5% 6.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 34.5% 36.0% 28.5% 22.7% 13.8% 11.0% 3.8% 0.9% Logistic Regression 2.5% 3.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 1.0% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 33.0% 23.0% 21.0% 9.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 07/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.9% 42.5% 28.8% 10.0% 3.9% 6.9% 1.5% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 15.2% 7.0% 3.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 22.0% 12.4% 5.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 14.8% 10.8% 8.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.9% 28.2% 21.4% 7.0% 2.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.4% Logistic Regression 6.7% 11.0% 6.2% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 0.7%
Bayesian 3.9% 19.7% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.3% 30.9% 26.2% 22.5% 5.6% 10.7% 1.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 29.8% 20.5% 16.6% 9.7% 0.7% 1.8% 3.0% 0.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 29.1% 23.0% 19.0% 12.9% 1.9% 4.0% 2.5% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 40.9% 39.4% 36.5% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.1% 24.4% 23.1% 15.7% 3.8% 5.8% 0.6% 0.3% Logistic Regression 27.5% 19.0% 11.7% 4.5% 2.0% 5.4% 9.0% 2.6%
Bayesian 20.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 35.0% 18.0% 20.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 58.0% 64.7% 46.9% 42.0% 21.0% 21.8% 4.4% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 40.5% 33.3% 27.5% 18.4% 9.1% 11.9% 4.5% 2.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 44.7% 43.5% 34.8% 26.9% 14.5% 16.8% 4.8% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 43.5% 51.9% 45.4% 36.4% 18.5% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 47.0% 42.8% 30.9% 24.5% 11.5% 14.4% 3.7% 1.1% Logistic Regression 42.7% 40.1% 30.5% 17.5% 8.4% 17.1% 13.5% 6.2%
Bayesian 35.2% 8.0% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 38.0% 21.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 60.5% 69.1% 61.7% 55.5% 48.5% 47.9% 41.3% 13.4% SHIPS Consensus 42.0% 68.2% 56.0% 41.5% 28.9% 31.3% 17.5% 13.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 46.6% 68.4% 57.4% 45.0% 33.7% 35.4% 23.4% 13.3% SHIPS-RII 28.9% 59.1% 46.4% 38.7% 26.3% 37.8% 29.3% 23.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 60.7% 79.5% 70.8% 63.2% 53.7% 60.4% 50.6% 7.7% Logistic Regression 38.0% 55.9% 45.1% 34.5% 23.2% 28.6% 20.8% 14.4%
Bayesian 59.1% 89.8% 76.4% 51.5% 37.1% 27.4% 2.4% 2.0%
DTOPS 61.0% 90.0% 80.0% 71.0% 59.0% 73.0% 60.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 54.9% 66.2% 61.7% 49.4% 44.9% 49.7% 35.9% 18.6% SHIPS Consensus 40.0% 69.8% 58.2% 43.1% 26.9% 41.0% 21.8% 17.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 43.7% 68.9% 59.0% 44.7% 31.3% 43.1% 25.2% 17.7% SHIPS-RII 29.5% 62.2% 48.6% 42.5% 28.4% 42.1% 33.5% 26.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 51.4% 69.6% 59.8% 49.7% 34.9% 54.8% 59.9% 11.8% Logistic Regression 33.0% 54.6% 41.1% 27.0% 19.9% 36.2% 24.0% 22.0%
Bayesian 57.5% 92.7% 84.8% 59.9% 32.3% 44.6% 7.8% 4.1%
DTOPS 48.0% 73.0% 58.0% 50.0% 25.0% 60.0% 84.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.6% 56.1% 53.9% 35.8% 25.3% 46.8% 39.6% 30.0% SHIPS Consensus 34.5% 71.3% 58.4% 38.8% 23.1% 54.3% 40.7% 31.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 34.3% 67.5% 57.3% 38.0% 23.5% 52.4% 40.4% 31.4% SHIPS-RII 26.1% 68.0% 51.9% 46.0% 28.1% 51.6% 45.5% 35.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 43.8% 68.5% 57.9% 41.9% 27.6% 50.4% 59.3% 27.5% Logistic Regression 37.3% 61.1% 50.2% 34.3% 24.6% 49.0% 40.1% 38.3%
Bayesian 40.2% 85.0% 73.2% 36.1% 16.4% 62.3% 36.6% 21.5%
DTOPS 54.0% 81.0% 62.0% 48.0% 30.0% 54.0% 79.0% 25.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/29/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.5% 46.3% 38.2% 15.3% 14.2% 29.4% 39.6% 36.2% SHIPS Consensus 26.4% 69.4% 49.9% 29.5% 16.6% 47.5% 36.5% 39.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.6% 63.5% 47.0% 25.9% 16.0% 42.9% 37.2% 38.5% SHIPS-RII 23.7% 67.8% 50.6% 41.6% 23.8% 54.3% 59.2% 53.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 23.7% 42.1% 29.1% 21.6% 11.1% 18.7% 42.8% 34.6% Logistic Regression 30.8% 63.3% 53.4% 32.2% 19.9% 43.7% 25.6% 36.1%
Bayesian 24.6% 77.0% 45.8% 14.8% 6.1% 44.5% 24.6% 28.6%
DTOPS 20.0% 38.0% 20.0% 28.0% 8.0% 8.0% 46.0% 33.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/29/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.7% 27.3% 20.3% 4.9% 2.8% 24.9% 36.8% 45.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 49.5% 25.1% 7.7% 4.7% 23.7% 29.7% 48.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.2% 44.0% 23.9% 6.9% 4.2% 23.9% 31.5% 47.3% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 45.9% 30.4% 13.3% 7.4% 27.3% 41.0% 59.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.8% 27.1% 15.6% 4.9% 2.4% 17.4% 37.4% 49.0% Logistic Regression 17.5% 47.2% 29.0% 8.4% 5.5% 26.7% 29.4% 39.3%
Bayesian 8.1% 55.6% 16.0% 1.3% 1.3% 17.0% 18.8% 46.1%
DTOPS 7.0% 27.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 10.0% 38.0% 53.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Beryl at 06/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.8% 26.6% 16.4% 6.4% 2.1% 14.0% 24.7% 43.7% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 39.2% 16.5% 5.4% 3.9% 18.3% 35.1% 50.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 36.0% 16.4% 5.6% 3.4% 17.2% 32.5% 49.1% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 35.4% 19.6% 9.3% 6.6% 17.5% 30.2% 54.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.4% 20.3% 10.7% 4.2% 1.5% 8.5% 17.8% 56.3% Logistic Regression 9.6% 36.5% 18.9% 5.9% 4.7% 25.5% 35.7% 43.7%
Bayesian 3.7% 45.8% 10.8% 1.0% 0.5% 11.8% 39.4% 54.7%
DTOPS 4.0% 14.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 11.0% 69.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 06/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.6% 28.3% 20.6% 6.8% 2.9% 11.6% 27.2% 45.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 21.0% 8.9% 4.2% 3.0% 10.5% 17.0% 35.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 22.8% 11.8% 4.8% 2.9% 10.8% 19.5% 37.4% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 21.5% 11.9% 8.5% 5.9% 12.8% 15.8% 37.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 19.6% 12.3% 4.4% 1.9% 8.3% 20.6% 63.5% Logistic Regression 5.0% 21.7% 9.9% 3.6% 2.7% 14.4% 26.6% 39.8%
Bayesian 1.4% 20.0% 4.8% 0.5% 0.4% 4.4% 8.7% 27.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 14.0% 82.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------