Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Three intensity image current Three RI diff image

 


Chris at 07/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 9.1% 9.6% 4.0% 1.8% 8.8% 4.1% 9.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 7.0% 4.3% 3.5% 1.8% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 7.5% 5.6% 3.6% 1.8% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.3% 11.1% 6.9% 4.9% 2.7% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.4% 9.6% 5.9% 5.7% 2.8% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Chris at 07/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 9.4% 7.3% 5.1% 2.4% 2.5% 6.8% 7.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 16.9% 10.5% 5.8% 3.1% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 15.0% 9.7% 5.6% 2.9% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 3.3% 16.5% 10.8% 7.9% 5.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 4.7% 3.6% 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 3.4% 3.9% Logistic Regression 8.6% 22.8% 14.8% 8.0% 3.8% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 4.3% 11.4% 6.0% 1.4% 0.5% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Chris at 07/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 12.0% 14.4% 12.8% 7.4% 2.2% 4.6% 10.6% SHIPS Consensus 7.9% 21.1% 14.1% 8.5% 4.6% 11.7% 12.9% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 15.9% 12.0% 8.5% 4.7% 7.5% 9.4% N/A SHIPS-RII 4.1% 17.7% 11.6% 8.3% 5.4% 11.6% 11.9% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 6.0% 7.2% 6.4% 3.7% 1.1% 2.3% 5.3% Logistic Regression 14.7% 34.9% 25.3% 16.0% 7.9% 16.7% 21.8% N/A
Bayesian 4.9% 10.9% 5.6% 1.3% 0.5% 6.9% 4.9% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Three at 06/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 28.7% 15.7% 9.3% 3.5% 19.7% 9.8% 15.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 18.0% 10.8% 7.0% 4.1% 8.4% 9.3% 2.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 20.7% 12.0% 7.5% 3.9% 11.2% 9.4% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 16.0% 10.2% 7.2% 4.5% 9.8% 8.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 14.3% 7.8% 4.6% 1.7% 9.8% 4.9% 7.7% Logistic Regression 10.2% 30.7% 20.3% 13.1% 7.6% 14.0% 18.5% 2.6%
Bayesian 1.7% 7.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 5.8%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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