Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Four intensity image current Four RI diff image

 


Debby at 08/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/09/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.6% 5.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 12.6% 7.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 3.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 5.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 13.9% 8.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 6.1% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.6% 3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 3.8% 3.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.6% 3.2% 2.3% 1.4% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 13.9% 8.9% 6.8% 5.2% 11.1% 9.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 8.5% 5.5% 3.3% 2.4% 4.8% 4.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 7.6% 4.6% 2.7% 1.9% 4.1% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 17.5% 11.5% 8.9% 6.9% 13.2% 13.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 7.9% 5.0% 1.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 8.2% 5.7% 3.8% 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 11.8% 7.5% 4.0% 2.5% 7.0% 8.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 11.0% 7.2% 4.0% 2.4% 5.4% 6.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 22.7% 13.9% 9.8% 7.1% 18.5% 23.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 4.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.4% 12.4% 8.4% 2.1% 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 6.7% 3.8% 0.7% 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 12.5% 8.6% 5.4% 2.8% 7.8% 8.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 11.0% 7.3% 4.2% 2.4% 6.3% 6.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 24.5% 16.3% 12.6% 7.6% 19.6% 23.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 3.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.3% 12.6% 9.2% 3.2% 0.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 6.9% 3.2% 2.3% 3.4% 1.6% 2.8% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 10.9% 6.7% 3.9% 2.5% 5.7% 6.5% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 9.9% 5.8% 3.5% 2.7% 4.6% 5.6% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 21.1% 12.4% 9.6% 7.1% 14.2% 17.4% 20.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 4.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% Logistic Regression 2.2% 11.3% 7.5% 2.0% 0.4% 2.8% 2.2% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 3.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 2.6% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 8.8% 6.0% 3.4% 2.1% 4.9% 5.0% 7.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 7.5% 4.8% 2.7% 1.8% 3.9% 4.3% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 16.6% 11.1% 8.6% 6.1% 12.2% 13.0% 21.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 1.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 9.7% 6.7% 1.7% 0.4% 2.5% 1.8% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 4.6% 2.2% 0.9% 1.1% 2.0% 2.7% 3.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 10.4% 7.1% 3.6% 2.2% 5.2% 5.2% 8.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 9.7% 6.1% 3.0% 2.0% 4.4% 4.4% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 17.8% 11.9% 9.0% 6.3% 12.6% 13.1% 23.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.8% Logistic Regression 2.4% 13.2% 9.5% 1.6% 0.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 5.6% 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 4.4% 5.5% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 9.2% 6.1% 3.3% 2.2% 4.9% 5.2% 8.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 8.2% 5.3% 2.7% 1.9% 4.8% 5.2% 7.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 17.8% 11.9% 9.0% 6.6% 12.7% 13.7% 24.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 3.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 2.2% 2.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 2.1% 9.6% 6.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.3%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 6.1% 3.9% 2.4% 1.7% 3.9% 4.1% 7.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 5.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 3.0% 3.1% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 14.5% 9.3% 6.9% 5.1% 11.0% 11.6% 20.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 4.2% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 5.2% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.9% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 12.0% 7.1% 5.3% 4.4% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 4.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 7.2% 4.7% 3.2% 2.1% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 6.6% 4.0% 2.7% 1.6% 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 15.4% 9.4% 7.0% 5.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 1.9% 6.2% 4.6% 2.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.2% 11.5% 10.4% 3.4% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 17.6% 12.2% 9.6% 4.4% 7.0% 4.8% 6.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.7% 16.1% 11.7% 8.0% 3.5% 5.5% 3.7% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 34.5% 21.8% 15.2% 11.1% 15.8% 12.7% 17.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.6% 5.7% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 11.6% 17.7% 13.9% 8.9% 2.0% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6%
Bayesian 7.4% 0.7% 0.8% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 178 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 15.9% 13.0% 5.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 24.0% 28.4% 22.7% 20.6% 8.1% 10.7% 5.4% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.5% 25.2% 20.2% 16.8% 6.4% 8.2% 4.0% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 26.2% 48.7% 35.8% 24.2% 18.5% 23.0% 13.9% 18.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 7.9% 6.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 26.0% 35.4% 29.2% 20.5% 5.2% 8.9% 2.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 19.9% 1.1% 3.0% 17.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.9% 40.4% 35.5% 14.7% 6.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 29.7% 20.6% 15.3% 7.5% 11.0% 6.3% 6.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.5% 32.3% 24.3% 15.1% 7.1% 8.9% 5.1% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 16.0% 50.1% 34.1% 22.8% 16.7% 23.6% 15.2% 19.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.9% 20.2% 17.7% 7.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% Logistic Regression 16.2% 35.7% 25.5% 16.6% 5.3% 9.2% 3.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 9.0% 3.2% 2.1% 6.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 172 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.3% 25.4% 24.0% 14.0% 6.0% 23.5% 7.3% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.3% 23.3% 15.0% 9.6% 3.7% 10.1% 6.1% 7.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.3% 21.5% 15.1% 8.3% 3.8% 12.4% 6.1% 6.3% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 42.5% 26.9% 15.4% 7.8% 21.6% 14.4% 20.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.1% 13.2% 12.5% 7.0% 3.0% 11.7% 3.6% 2.2% Logistic Regression 9.4% 26.0% 17.4% 12.2% 3.3% 8.7% 3.8% 0.6%
Bayesian 8.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 173 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.8% 15.4% 17.4% 12.7% 2.0% 13.1% 2.0% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 13.1% 6.2% 4.2% 2.4% 6.8% 7.4% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 13.6% 9.0% 6.3% 2.3% 8.4% 6.0% 6.4% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 26.7% 12.4% 9.1% 6.5% 15.6% 16.8% 21.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 10.7% 10.2% 7.3% 2.0% 6.5% 1.0% 1.7% Logistic Regression 4.1% 11.8% 5.9% 3.2% 0.8% 4.9% 5.3% 1.2%
Bayesian 9.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.7% 33.2% 31.5% 16.8% 8.5% 13.5% 5.0% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 11.1% 31.4% 19.9% 13.4% 5.6% 20.3% 18.0% 12.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 31.8% 22.8% 14.2% 6.3% 18.6% 14.7% 11.3% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 42.1% 27.5% 14.3% 7.3% 28.0% 30.5% 31.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 28.1% 21.7% 12.9% 5.7% 7.2% 2.5% 3.3% Logistic Regression 12.2% 45.5% 30.5% 23.8% 9.4% 32.1% 23.1% 6.9%
Bayesian 14.8% 6.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
DTOPS 8.0% 23.0% 12.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Debby at 08/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.7% 54.2% 46.5% 30.2% 10.7% 28.8% 33.2% 13.1% SHIPS Consensus 15.1% 52.2% 38.2% 30.5% 11.4% 30.4% 26.5% 18.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.2% 52.6% 40.2% 30.4% 11.2% 30.0% 28.2% 17.2% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 55.7% 39.2% 23.7% 10.5% 37.8% 39.6% 40.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.3% 48.1% 32.2% 22.1% 7.3% 16.4% 16.6% 6.5% Logistic Regression 21.8% 66.4% 55.3% 45.8% 20.6% 47.0% 37.6% 15.1%
Bayesian 13.7% 34.4% 20.1% 22.0% 3.0% 6.4% 2.4% 0.1%
DTOPS 9.0% 42.0% 18.0% 14.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 08/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.4% 27.6% 18.1% 14.5% 1.8% 29.8% 29.3% 15.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 20.7% 10.2% 5.0% 2.6% 7.7% 10.5% 9.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 22.4% 12.1% 7.3% 2.4% 13.2% 15.2% 11.1% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 33.0% 16.7% 9.1% 6.3% 13.3% 16.8% 24.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 20.3% 11.5% 8.2% 1.4% 16.9% 14.6% 7.5% Logistic Regression 5.3% 22.8% 11.9% 4.7% 1.3% 9.5% 14.0% 4.7%
Bayesian 1.9% 6.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 08/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 173 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 34.7% 8.8% 6.5% 4.6% 19.2% 27.4% 23.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 18.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.3% 5.3% 11.3% 3.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 22.1% 10.3% 6.1% 2.1% 8.7% 15.3% 8.5% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 19.1% 11.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 19.8% 5.4% 3.7% 2.3% 12.1% 14.7% 11.8% Logistic Regression 8.2% 32.3% 20.5% 9.7% 3.6% 15.7% 19.0% 10.4%
Bayesian 0.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 08/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 36.8% 24.4% 4.7% 2.3% 23.9% 15.6% 36.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 24.5% 14.9% 7.3% 2.1% 8.4% 16.0% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 27.6% 17.2% 6.6% 2.1% 12.2% 15.8% 15.2% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 24.5% 12.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 20.4% 13.2% 2.8% 1.1% 13.4% 8.8% 18.1% Logistic Regression 9.3% 45.9% 31.6% 13.3% 6.2% 25.0% 28.1% 24.3%
Bayesian 0.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 08/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 41.7% 12.0% 20.0% 4.5% 17.5% 35.6% 46.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 39.1% 30.0% 17.6% 8.9% 18.2% 28.5% 16.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 39.7% 25.5% 18.2% 7.8% 18.0% 30.2% 24.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 41.3% 25.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 22.3% 6.5% 10.5% 2.2% 9.2% 18.3% 23.0% Logistic Regression 13.2% 71.6% 62.0% 42.2% 26.7% 54.3% 55.9% 47.6%
Bayesian 0.2% 4.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 2.5%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 08/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.3% 36.6% 23.8% 9.8% 3.5% 23.7% 40.5% 47.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 16.0% 9.1% 4.2% 0.7% 4.2% 18.1% 6.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 21.1% 12.7% 5.6% 1.3% 9.0% 23.7% 16.5% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 17.8% 11.3% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 19.3% 12.4% 5.4% 1.7% 12.3% 20.7% 23.7% Logistic Regression 4.2% 26.5% 14.6% 4.5% 1.8% 12.1% 33.5% 18.6%
Bayesian 0.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 08/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 19.0% 8.1% 2.7% 1.3% 14.1% 28.2% 47.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 22.2% 12.8% 5.8% 1.5% 8.9% 25.8% 14.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 21.4% 11.6% 5.0% 1.4% 10.2% 26.4% 22.9% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 18.4% 11.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 10.0% 4.5% 1.3% 0.6% 7.0% 14.1% 23.6% Logistic Regression 5.8% 36.8% 23.1% 8.7% 4.3% 25.5% 53.3% 43.6%
Bayesian 0.7% 11.4% 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 2.9% 0.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------