Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Five intensity image current Five RI diff image

 


Ernesto at 08/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 54 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 6.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 4.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 15.8% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 3.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 6.8% 4.4% 3.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 5.8% 3.8% 2.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 15.9% 10.9% 8.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.2% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 3.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 7.5% 4.9% 3.4% 2.5% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 6.4% 4.1% 2.6% 1.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 16.2% 10.9% 8.7% 7.3% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 4.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.8% 6.3% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 6.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 15.5% 10.4% 8.4% 7.3% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.8% 3.8% 2.9% 2.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.7% 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 14.3% 9.5% 7.8% 7.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 108 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.7% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.5% 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 14.0% 9.4% 7.8% 7.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 2.8% 2.2% 2.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 11.7% 7.8% 6.4% 6.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 10.1% 7.1% 5.6% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.9% 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 12.1% 8.6% 6.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.3% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.4% 2.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 3.7% 2.7% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 10.2% 7.2% 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 10.1% 7.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 5.1% 4.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 3.7% 2.5% 2.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 4.0% 2.8% 1.6% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 9.4% 6.6% 5.4% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.8% 3.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.9% 13.7% 7.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 6.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.3% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 8.4% 5.3% 3.2% 1.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 13.3% 9.2% 7.1% 5.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 11.3% 7.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.5% 6.0% 3.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 9.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 13.0% 9.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 12.5% 11.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 8.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.8% 3.6% 2.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 9.1% 6.7% 4.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 14.6% 9.6% 7.5% 6.5% 9.4% 7.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 16.0% 26.2% 17.2% 8.4% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 7.1% 9.3% 5.6% 5.9% 1.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 40.0% 23.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.5% 27.5% 19.4% 10.8% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 12.4% 10.9% 7.5% 5.7% 3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 13.8% 9.3% 6.2% 2.8% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 17.9% 12.0% 9.2% 7.7% 11.2% 9.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 20.7% 37.2% 23.7% 12.4% 5.2% 3.0% 0.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 10.8% 14.0% 9.0% 7.1% 2.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 12.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 28.0% 53.0% 34.0% 19.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.4% 28.6% 12.2% 10.2% 12.0% 3.8% 0.7% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 12.4% 7.8% 5.7% 3.3% 5.3% 3.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 16.4% 8.9% 6.8% 5.4% 4.9% 2.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 20.9% 12.5% 9.5% 7.7% 11.4% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.2% 47.8% 31.1% 23.6% 10.0% 9.9% 2.3% 1.6% Logistic Regression 7.1% 14.8% 9.6% 7.0% 1.8% 4.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 9.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 37.0% 67.0% 50.0% 37.0% 8.0% 16.0% 4.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.4% 34.9% 35.3% 32.9% 25.6% 4.5% 1.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 11.4% 17.0% 11.2% 7.4% 4.5% 5.7% 3.9% 3.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.9% 21.4% 17.2% 13.7% 9.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 15.3% 32.4% 20.0% 11.3% 10.3% 12.2% 10.3% 10.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.2% 55.4% 43.1% 30.9% 16.3% 20.2% 8.3% 1.6% Logistic Regression 8.6% 16.4% 10.4% 9.1% 2.5% 4.8% 1.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 10.4% 2.2% 3.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 19.0% 76.0% 51.0% 29.0% 7.0% 36.0% 15.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/14/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.0% 31.9% 28.2% 17.5% 13.5% 13.1% 5.9% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 17.5% 11.1% 7.9% 5.0% 6.5% 4.7% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 21.1% 15.3% 10.3% 7.1% 8.1% 5.0% 3.1% SHIPS-RII 12.1% 34.7% 21.7% 13.7% 12.1% 13.0% 11.4% 11.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 20.5% 46.4% 32.1% 17.7% 10.2% 20.5% 18.4% 5.6% Logistic Regression 5.8% 17.1% 10.5% 9.7% 2.9% 6.3% 2.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 4.2% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 27.0% 61.0% 36.0% 18.0% 7.0% 28.0% 31.0% 10.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 16.8% 14.0% 18.2% 9.1% 15.2% 1.4% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 16.4% 9.6% 5.7% 3.3% 7.5% 5.1% 4.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 16.5% 10.6% 8.8% 4.7% 9.4% 4.1% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 34.8% 20.2% 9.9% 7.8% 15.7% 12.3% 13.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.5% 21.4% 13.0% 12.6% 6.0% 17.1% 11.2% 5.5% Logistic Regression 4.2% 14.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.1% 6.7% 2.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 2.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 26.0% 12.0% 7.0% 3.0% 19.0% 21.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 29.0% 46.1% 21.5% 24.7% 20.4% 24.1% 12.3% 3.9% SHIPS Consensus 12.7% 25.3% 18.3% 12.8% 7.7% 13.4% 8.1% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.8% 30.5% 19.0% 15.7% 10.8% 16.0% 9.1% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 15.2% 45.8% 32.2% 22.7% 17.5% 27.4% 17.5% 16.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 24.5% 41.0% 18.7% 17.3% 12.7% 24.5% 20.6% 15.9% Logistic Regression 11.3% 26.0% 17.6% 14.0% 4.8% 10.5% 5.0% 0.5%
Bayesian 11.7% 4.1% 5.0% 1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0%
DTOPS 20.0% 36.0% 16.0% 10.0% 5.0% 25.0% 29.0% 28.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.6% 55.7% 41.8% 30.8% 27.1% 33.5% 24.0% 5.9% SHIPS Consensus 16.5% 41.9% 29.1% 17.7% 10.1% 21.7% 15.7% 9.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.0% 45.3% 32.3% 21.0% 14.3% 24.6% 17.7% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 19.2% 54.8% 39.4% 25.8% 18.6% 40.6% 31.7% 21.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.8% 58.3% 38.4% 30.4% 18.5% 27.7% 34.5% 14.4% Logistic Regression 16.9% 46.1% 33.5% 21.6% 9.2% 20.6% 13.6% 6.0%
Bayesian 13.6% 24.7% 14.5% 5.9% 2.5% 3.7% 1.9% 0.0%
DTOPS 33.0% 61.0% 35.0% 30.0% 10.0% 22.0% 45.0% 23.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.6% 53.7% 44.5% 15.6% 11.5% 35.8% 17.3% 12.4% SHIPS Consensus 12.7% 41.2% 25.8% 14.5% 8.6% 20.8% 16.6% 10.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 45.8% 31.6% 15.2% 9.7% 24.9% 17.2% 11.1% SHIPS-RII 17.0% 54.6% 38.6% 23.8% 16.8% 38.0% 34.1% 21.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 54.3% 34.7% 16.3% 7.7% 25.9% 26.1% 16.7% Logistic Regression 13.3% 44.0% 27.7% 16.6% 7.3% 21.7% 14.3% 9.9%
Bayesian 7.8% 25.0% 11.1% 3.0% 1.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.1%
DTOPS 14.0% 55.0% 25.0% 17.0% 4.0% 15.0% 32.0% 21.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.5% 47.9% 21.4% 22.6% 18.8% 29.8% 36.9% 33.4% SHIPS Consensus 14.2% 51.5% 36.7% 17.8% 10.5% 23.3% 18.3% 11.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.2% 50.5% 32.8% 19.0% 12.5% 24.9% 22.9% 16.9% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 54.6% 37.1% 22.8% 13.3% 36.4% 32.5% 26.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.7% 38.9% 15.7% 14.3% 11.9% 21.9% 23.4% 24.2% Logistic Regression 26.0% 56.3% 41.9% 22.0% 12.4% 20.0% 14.5% 7.3%
Bayesian 8.1% 43.5% 31.1% 8.8% 5.8% 13.5% 7.8% 0.4%
DTOPS 7.0% 30.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 14.0% 10.0% 15.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.6% 56.1% 31.9% 24.0% 11.7% 36.4% 25.3% 25.6% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 43.7% 26.5% 11.0% 6.2% 18.7% 20.0% 13.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 46.8% 27.8% 14.2% 7.5% 23.1% 21.3% 16.3% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 48.2% 30.6% 13.6% 7.7% 27.4% 29.3% 27.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.3% 43.0% 19.9% 14.0% 6.8% 27.7% 17.1% 32.3% Logistic Regression 11.9% 50.4% 31.5% 14.5% 9.3% 19.0% 16.3% 11.8%
Bayesian 4.4% 32.6% 17.4% 4.7% 1.5% 9.6% 14.4% 1.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 30.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 19.0% 9.0% 39.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ernesto at 08/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 59.2% 39.7% 27.0% 7.2% 32.4% 30.4% 35.5% SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 51.6% 29.6% 10.8% 5.3% 23.3% 24.1% 20.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 53.5% 32.1% 14.8% 5.7% 25.5% 25.6% 23.8% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 53.3% 35.5% 17.4% 7.6% 35.2% 41.4% 41.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 38.6% 22.3% 16.0% 4.6% 20.2% 24.2% 35.7% Logistic Regression 10.6% 50.5% 29.2% 9.8% 4.5% 12.0% 13.1% 13.3%
Bayesian 9.9% 51.1% 24.1% 5.3% 3.7% 22.7% 17.8% 5.2%
DTOPS 4.0% 18.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 8.0% 18.0% 36.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 08/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.5% 56.5% 27.5% 29.1% 14.3% 27.5% 25.7% 37.8% SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 37.5% 29.0% 9.3% 4.6% 15.1% 30.2% 19.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 42.2% 28.6% 14.2% 7.0% 18.2% 29.0% 23.9% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 45.5% 29.6% 10.2% 7.2% 29.1% 39.8% 45.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 35.7% 16.7% 17.0% 8.1% 15.7% 15.8% 25.4% Logistic Regression 14.4% 55.3% 46.3% 16.6% 5.1% 10.3% 7.1% 8.8%
Bayesian 4.3% 11.8% 11.1% 1.2% 1.4% 6.0% 43.6% 3.2%
DTOPS 5.0% 15.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 13.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 08/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 31.4% 14.4% 7.3% 3.1% 24.5% 26.7% 37.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 13.9% 7.0% 3.2% 0.4% 1.9% 11.2% 4.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 18.2% 8.8% 4.2% 1.0% 7.5% 15.1% 12.3% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 17.1% 10.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 17.7% 8.2% 4.1% 1.5% 12.7% 13.8% 20.1% Logistic Regression 3.0% 17.7% 8.4% 2.2% 1.0% 3.9% 5.7% 7.8%
Bayesian 0.9% 6.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 8.8% 4.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 08/12/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 20.2% 11.1% 2.4% 1.7% 14.5% 27.1% 24.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 21.5% 9.2% 3.9% 0.5% 2.3% 16.6% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 21.1% 9.6% 3.5% 0.8% 5.3% 19.2% 10.9% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 31.6% 15.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 11.6% 6.0% 1.7% 0.8% 7.7% 14.0% 13.9% Logistic Regression 3.3% 21.8% 10.5% 2.5% 1.4% 5.5% 5.9% 9.6%
Bayesian 0.4% 11.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 19.7% 9.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 08/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 18.9% 10.0% 2.7% 2.1% 9.9% 21.1% 23.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 16.5% 8.0% 3.7% 0.3% 1.9% 9.2% 2.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 17.1% 8.5% 3.4% 0.7% 3.9% 12.2% 8.0% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 29.0% 14.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 11.9% 6.0% 1.8% 1.0% 5.4% 11.0% 13.3% Logistic Regression 2.9% 14.3% 7.5% 1.8% 0.8% 4.1% 3.5% 4.8%
Bayesian 0.3% 6.3% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 4.5% 3.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 08/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 20.6% 11.9% 3.0% 2.6% 16.9% 21.3% 33.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 11.7% 6.4% 3.2% 0.2% 1.2% 7.0% 1.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 13.9% 7.7% 3.1% 0.8% 5.1% 10.6% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 18.6% 11.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 14.3% 7.4% 2.0% 1.3% 9.4% 11.1% 19.7% Logistic Regression 2.7% 10.9% 5.8% 1.3% 0.6% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9%
Bayesian 0.4% 5.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 5.0% 0.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------