Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Francine intensity image current Francine RI diff image

 


Francine at 09/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 108 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Francine at 09/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 97 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Francine at 09/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 3.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.7% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.2% 3.0% 1.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.6% 12.3% 8.4% 5.7% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Francine at 09/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.6% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 85 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 9.7% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.9% 2.8% 1.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 16.6% 2.4% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.9% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 17.9% 6.7% 5.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 8.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/11/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 4.7% 1.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 8.7% 5.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 7.6% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 16.9% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 8.1% 8.9% 5.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Francine at 09/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.5% 4.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 8.5% 5.2% 3.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 7.5% 4.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 17.8% 11.5% 8.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.2% 10.7% 6.2% 2.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.0% 7.7% 4.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 17.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Francine at 09/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.1% 8.4% 5.6% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 9.5% 5.1% 3.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 9.2% 5.2% 3.0% 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 21.2% 11.7% 8.4% 6.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.5% 19.2% 12.3% 7.0% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 7.2% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 30.0% 19.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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