Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Seven intensity image current Seven RI diff image

 


Gordon at 09/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 7.4% 6.2% 3.7% 0.1% 1.3% 4.2% 0.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 6.2% 4.6% 2.9% 0.0% 1.2% 3.3% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 16.0% 11.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.4% 6.2% 6.5% 2.6% 0.3% 3.7% 1.3% 2.6%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 2.6% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 6.6% 5.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.4% 4.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 15.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.9% 4.6% 5.3% 2.5% 0.2% 2.3% 0.9% 3.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.9% 5.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.6% 4.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 15.1% 10.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.4% 5.6% 5.8% 3.2% 0.3% 2.8% 1.2% 5.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.6% 4.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.7% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 13.6% 9.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.2% 2.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 3.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.3% 7.3% 4.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 5.9% 5.3% 2.0% 0.1% 1.2% 2.4% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.6% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.5% 11.9% 5.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2.2% 2.0% 8.8%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 8.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% 3.0% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 8.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 1.7% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 8.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 1.3% 2.0% 3.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.4% 22.8% 10.2% 2.6% 0.8% 4.3% 5.0% 11.2%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 5.7% 6.0% 4.9% 0.5% 3.9% 2.5% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 10.6% 5.0% 2.3% 0.9% 3.4% 2.8% 6.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 9.3% 5.2% 2.9% 0.8% 3.4% 2.7% 5.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 3.3% 3.5% 2.4% 0.2% 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% Logistic Regression 4.0% 30.4% 14.7% 6.7% 2.7% 10.0% 8.4% 18.7%
Bayesian 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 6.6% 5.1% 1.8% 1.0% 5.0% 3.2% 8.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 8.3% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 3.5% 2.4% 6.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 7.8% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 3.8% 2.6% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.2% 21.9% 10.3% 4.3% 1.5% 10.2% 7.2% 18.4%
Bayesian 0.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 8.6% 6.4% 8.3% 1.2% 1.2% 3.5% 16.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 2.2% 4.3% 7.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.4% 1.9% 4.1% 10.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.1% 8.2% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 6.6% 12.9% 23.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 7.2% 4.2% 2.1% 0.2% 6.6% 5.1% 27.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 10.6% 6.3% 3.9% 2.2% 7.6% 11.4% 16.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 9.7% 5.7% 3.4% 1.7% 7.3% 9.8% 19.3% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 15.5% 10.3% 7.7% 5.2% 12.1% 13.9% 23.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 4.1% 2.6% 1.0% 0.1% 3.3% 2.5% 14.1% Logistic Regression 2.4% 14.4% 8.1% 3.9% 1.4% 10.4% 19.7% 25.8%
Bayesian 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 22.9% 16.0% 6.9% 5.7% 3.9% 14.0% 31.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 17.4% 11.7% 5.8% 3.4% 11.0% 15.7% 21.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 18.7% 12.7% 6.1% 3.9% 9.2% 15.2% 23.6% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 16.4% 10.9% 8.1% 5.7% 12.2% 14.2% 25.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 11.9% 8.0% 3.4% 2.8% 1.9% 7.0% 16.1% Logistic Regression 9.6% 28.6% 21.0% 8.7% 4.2% 19.1% 30.4% 35.4%
Bayesian 1.5% 7.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 6.9% 2.9% 4.0% 0.5% 8.8% 12.2% 19.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 9.4% 5.5% 3.1% 1.9% 7.3% 10.7% 22.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 8.7% 4.8% 3.3% 1.5% 7.7% 11.1% 21.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 12.2% 8.0% 6.0% 3.9% 10.2% 12.5% 25.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 3.4% 1.4% 2.0% 0.2% 4.4% 6.1% 9.5% Logistic Regression 3.1% 13.7% 7.7% 3.2% 1.8% 11.3% 19.3% 38.5%
Bayesian 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 7.1% 3.2% 2.7% 0.6% 6.6% 8.0% 18.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 8.3% 5.0% 3.1% 1.8% 5.3% 7.2% 18.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 8.0% 4.5% 2.9% 1.5% 5.5% 7.3% 18.6% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 14.1% 9.5% 7.3% 4.8% 11.0% 12.8% 25.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 4.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 4.0% 9.2% Logistic Regression 2.1% 8.8% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 4.5% 8.6% 28.4%
Bayesian 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.8%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 4.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 3.7% 3.9% 17.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 6.2% 3.7% 2.4% 1.5% 3.8% 5.4% 14.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 5.8% 3.1% 2.1% 1.1% 3.8% 5.0% 15.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 12.2% 8.0% 6.2% 4.1% 9.8% 11.4% 22.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.8% 1.9% 8.8% Logistic Regression 1.6% 5.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.6% 4.8% 19.7%
Bayesian 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 3.1% 2.6% 12.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.2% 3.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.7% 4.9% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.1% 1.2% 4.3% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 8.9% 5.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 1.5% 1.3% 6.2% Logistic Regression 1.7% 5.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.9% 5.1% 24.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 1.3% 2.4% 10.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 7.6% 4.8% 3.1% 2.1% 4.6% 4.8% 11.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 6.2% 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% 3.8% 4.1% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 14.8% 9.9% 7.7% 5.6% 11.3% 11.7% 21.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 5.3% Logistic Regression 2.0% 7.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.5% 2.7% 12.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 3.3% 10.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.9% 4.2% 2.9% 1.9% 4.5% 4.8% 11.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 5.8% 3.3% 2.2% 1.4% 3.5% 4.4% 10.9% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 14.1% 9.3% 7.2% 5.1% 10.7% 11.0% 20.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% 5.3% Logistic Regression 1.8% 5.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.7% 2.6% 3.4% 12.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 4.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 3.1% 5.5% 10.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 7.1% 4.3% 3.1% 2.2% 4.9% 4.8% 9.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.4% 3.6% 2.6% 1.7% 4.4% 4.9% 9.8% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 15.7% 10.6% 8.5% 6.2% 11.7% 11.8% 20.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 2.7% 5.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 3.0% 2.6% 8.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 3.2% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 5.4% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 4.3% 4.0% 7.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.8% 2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 3.6% 3.8% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.9% 9.4% 7.7% 5.7% 10.9% 10.3% 17.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 2.8% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 1.7% 5.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 123 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% 7.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 7.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.6% 7.3% 6.4% 4.4% 9.3% 8.8% 16.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 5.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/14/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 3.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2.5% 3.8% 8.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 3.0% 3.7% 6.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 2.8% 3.7% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 7.6% 5.3% 4.8% 2.9% 8.1% 8.6% 15.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 1.9% 4.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% 4.6%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 3.1% 3.2% 7.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 3.6% 4.5% 9.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 3.1% 3.7% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.0% 6.2% 5.4% 3.4% 8.6% 9.0% 16.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.6% 3.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.0% 4.3% 12.7%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 5.5% 1.3% 2.1% 0.1% 3.3% 6.6% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 3.5% 4.3% 9.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 3.4% 4.8% 9.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.1% 6.3% 5.4% 3.1% 8.4% 8.9% 16.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 2.7% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.3% 4.9% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 3.8% 9.7%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 7.8% 5.0% 1.3% 0.2% 2.5% 6.7% 9.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.1% 3.4% 4.1% 9.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.2% 2.7% 1.5% 0.7% 2.8% 4.3% 8.6% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.8% 6.6% 5.5% 3.3% 8.7% 9.6% 17.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 3.3% 4.9% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 2.6% 9.7%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 9.0% 8.0% 4.2% 1.0% 6.4% 12.2% 13.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.7% 3.0% 2.3% 1.3% 4.0% 4.4% 10.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.7% 4.2% 2.7% 1.2% 4.5% 6.3% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 11.2% 7.5% 6.0% 3.6% 9.0% 9.6% 17.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 5.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% 3.2% 6.1% 6.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 3.6% 13.1%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Gordon at 09/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 9.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 4.7% 11.4% 11.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 3.5% 4.2% 9.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.5% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 3.8% 6.0% 9.9% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.7% 6.5% 5.1% 2.8% 8.6% 9.7% 18.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 5.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 2.3% 5.7% 5.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 2.9% 9.8%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 5.2% 4.7% 1.7% 0.2% 2.4% 12.3% 9.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.1% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 3.1% 3.5% 8.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 4.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.8% 5.7% 8.9% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 9.5% 6.2% 4.7% 2.5% 7.9% 8.6% 17.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% 6.1% 4.9% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 8.2%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 9.8% 3.5% 2.2% 0.4% 3.0% 8.2% 10.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 6.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.5% 3.8% 4.0% 8.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 7.0% 3.7% 2.4% 1.2% 3.5% 5.0% 8.6% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 13.0% 8.6% 6.5% 4.1% 9.7% 10.1% 18.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 5.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.5% 4.1% 5.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 5.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 1.6% 1.8% 6.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 9.7% 6.4% 3.0% 0.5% 3.0% 7.9% 11.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 6.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.4% 3.8% 4.3% 7.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 7.1% 4.3% 2.5% 1.1% 3.5% 5.1% 8.9% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 12.6% 8.3% 6.2% 3.8% 9.5% 10.1% 17.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 5.3% 3.7% 1.5% 0.2% 1.5% 3.9% 5.9% Logistic Regression 1.6% 5.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 5.9%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 12.4% 13.8% 2.8% 0.7% 6.3% 6.1% 13.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 8.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.6% 4.6% 4.8% 8.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 9.1% 7.0% 2.8% 1.4% 5.0% 5.1% 10.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 12.8% 8.4% 6.3% 3.9% 9.7% 10.4% 18.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 6.7% 7.4% 1.4% 0.3% 3.1% 3.0% 6.8% Logistic Regression 2.4% 10.6% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 7.6%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/12/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 10.1% 1.9% 2.0% 0.2% 2.4% 4.9% 13.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 8.3% 4.8% 2.8% 1.6% 4.4% 4.7% 7.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 8.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.2% 3.8% 4.7% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 13.8% 9.0% 6.6% 4.2% 10.2% 11.2% 18.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 6.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.1% 1.2% 2.4% 6.8% Logistic Regression 2.5% 9.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.8%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 23.2% 6.7% 4.4% 2.3% 6.5% 10.9% 12.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 15.9% 8.7% 4.3% 2.6% 7.1% 7.5% 11.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 17.7% 8.2% 4.3% 2.5% 6.9% 8.3% 12.0% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 16.5% 10.7% 7.5% 5.0% 11.5% 12.8% 23.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 12.6% 3.8% 2.7% 1.1% 3.7% 5.4% 6.4% Logistic Regression 4.5% 27.3% 14.3% 5.2% 2.6% 9.3% 8.5% 10.9%
Bayesian 1.0% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 1.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 23.2% 14.1% 9.6% 2.1% 3.8% 14.1% 9.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 21.8% 12.7% 5.9% 3.1% 8.4% 6.9% 10.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 22.1% 13.0% 6.8% 2.8% 7.2% 8.6% 10.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 26.2% 13.2% 8.9% 6.0% 12.6% 13.5% 21.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 14.6% 8.5% 5.8% 1.0% 2.4% 7.5% 5.2% Logistic Regression 7.6% 31.9% 20.5% 8.1% 2.8% 10.5% 5.8% 7.8%
Bayesian 2.4% 7.4% 4.4% 0.8% 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.2%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Seven at 09/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 20.5% 14.0% 5.5% 0.9% 9.4% 12.7% 16.1% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 22.8% 15.8% 6.6% 3.1% 9.9% 10.2% 19.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 22.2% 15.3% 6.3% 2.5% 9.7% 10.8% 18.7% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 26.8% 14.4% 9.0% 5.8% 12.5% 14.0% 28.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 11.7% 7.5% 3.2% 0.4% 4.7% 6.3% 8.0% Logistic Regression 11.1% 36.2% 26.9% 9.6% 2.7% 12.8% 8.7% 17.8%
Bayesian 5.4% 5.5% 6.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4.3% 8.0% 13.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------