Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current eight intensity image current eight RI diff image

 


Eight at 09/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 8.2% 5.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eight at 09/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.3% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 11.8% 8.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eight at 09/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.6% 6.6% 4.9% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eight at 09/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.2% 5.7% 4.1% 1.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eight at 09/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.3% 2.8% 1.9% 0.1% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 10.0% 6.8% 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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