Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Helene at 09/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 7 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 5 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 6 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.1% 6.7% 4.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 6.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 19.5% 1.8% 2.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 2.1% 1.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 23.7% 7.5% 7.0% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.8% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 24.5% 17.3% 13.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 29.5% 5.2% 7.3% 5.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.8% 5.9% 13.5% 1.6% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 13.5% 11.9% 5.8% 5.5% 0.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.6% 10.3% 7.7% 4.5% 0.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 17.3% 11.8% 8.4% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.4% 2.9% 6.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 12.3% 2.8% 4.4% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 13.6% 15.5% 1.3% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.6% 32.5% 31.3% 26.4% 8.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 12.6% 7.5% 5.1% 2.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 17.5% 13.4% 10.4% 4.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 28.8% 14.8% 9.4% 7.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.8% 16.2% 15.6% 13.2% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 9.6% 6.8% 6.9% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.8% 2.2% 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 43.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.0% 32.1% 23.1% 22.3% 20.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 18.2% 24.9% 19.1% 13.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.4% 26.7% 20.1% 15.3% 9.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 19.2% 47.0% 32.9% 22.2% 11.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 29.5% 37.5% 25.5% 21.6% 16.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 21.0% 20.7% 21.1% 9.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 14.6% 7.2% 3.3% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 40.0% 43.0% 28.0% 21.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.7% 36.3% 27.9% 29.1% 12.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 36.6% 46.4% 38.8% 32.0% 14.6% 9.0% 4.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.6% 43.8% 36.0% 31.2% 14.0% 7.1% 3.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 27.2% 67.8% 50.7% 37.2% 19.7% 23.1% 12.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 43.3% 67.6% 63.4% 60.0% 41.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 35.0% 61.1% 50.3% 30.2% 9.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 47.5% 10.3% 15.3% 28.6% 14.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 74.0% 99.0% 99.0% 91.0% 71.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 40.6% 51.7% 48.2% 21.5% 21.5% 23.8% 6.9% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 27.1% 51.0% 39.3% 33.2% 18.3% 19.2% 5.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.4% 51.1% 41.5% 30.3% 19.0% 20.3% 5.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 19.0% 78.3% 56.0% 43.7% 26.5% 45.7% 14.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.8% 74.3% 68.1% 41.7% 24.7% 45.4% 3.4% 0.5% Logistic Regression 34.3% 64.7% 51.0% 35.0% 15.2% 10.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian 28.0% 10.0% 10.8% 21.0% 13.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 21.0% 97.0% 88.0% 62.0% 28.0% 67.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.7% 48.4% 32.6% 12.8% 14.9% 25.4% 9.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 14.9% 35.0% 21.4% 13.2% 6.7% 20.9% 7.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.6% 38.4% 24.1% 13.0% 8.7% 22.0% 8.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 62.4% 42.5% 24.3% 15.0% 44.1% 19.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 70.2% 54.8% 33.9% 22.4% 62.2% 5.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 11.4% 36.9% 18.8% 12.0% 4.8% 15.4% 3.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 23.7% 5.9% 2.8% 3.3% 0.3% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 92.0% 77.0% 55.0% 30.0% 99.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.0% 54.0% 30.2% 30.2% 7.4% 45.6% 22.3% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 12.0% 38.9% 23.9% 15.1% 6.2% 19.7% 16.3% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 42.6% 25.4% 18.8% 6.5% 26.1% 17.8% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 56.9% 38.0% 22.3% 7.9% 41.6% 39.4% 20.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.0% 63.0% 36.6% 34.1% 11.2% 69.8% 55.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 17.0% 48.9% 29.7% 17.4% 6.7% 12.8% 8.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 11.4% 10.8% 3.9% 5.6% 4.0% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 16.0% 72.0% 43.0% 38.0% 15.0% 94.0% 88.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Helene at 09/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 41.8% 25.4% 15.8% 5.7% 42.1% 24.0% 8.9% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 29.3% 15.7% 8.9% 3.1% 14.0% 15.5% 7.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 32.4% 18.1% 10.6% 3.7% 21.0% 17.6% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 52.3% 35.3% 20.7% 7.5% 35.4% 37.2% 22.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.5% 31.9% 15.7% 11.9% 3.8% 23.0% 17.0% 4.4% Logistic Regression 7.3% 23.7% 9.5% 3.1% 0.9% 4.6% 8.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 7.4% 11.8% 2.3% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 22.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 177 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 36.8% 18.2% 6.5% 2.1% 20.6% 27.1% 13.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 30.3% 16.4% 7.2% 3.7% 12.3% 18.0% 10.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 31.9% 16.8% 7.0% 3.2% 14.4% 20.3% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 45.2% 29.3% 11.2% 6.9% 25.1% 37.9% 29.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 44.9% 21.6% 12.2% 5.5% 57.3% 62.0% 7.0% Logistic Regression 7.9% 38.8% 18.8% 9.5% 3.7% 11.2% 14.5% 1.6%
Bayesian 4.4% 7.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 1.7% 0.7%
DTOPS 6.0% 53.0% 25.0% 18.0% 9.0% 94.0% 97.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 28.9% 12.8% 9.2% 3.7% 16.1% 17.0% 14.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 11.4% 5.2% 0.8% 0.4% 6.2% 11.9% 9.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 15.7% 7.1% 2.8% 1.2% 8.6% 13.1% 11.0% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 17.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 17.3% 23.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 22.9% 8.9% 5.6% 2.3% 17.5% 24.5% 8.4% Logistic Regression 2.2% 16.0% 4.6% 2.3% 1.2% 6.6% 18.1% 5.3%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
DTOPS 2.0% 17.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 19.0% 32.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 13.0% 10.9% 8.4% 3.9% 9.8% 15.8% 15.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 16.5% 7.3% 4.0% 2.3% 7.4% 13.6% 18.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 15.6% 8.1% 5.0% 2.7% 8.0% 14.2% 17.8% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 30.4% 15.3% 8.9% 5.7% 13.3% 24.7% 39.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 9.5% 6.4% 4.7% 2.4% 6.4% 9.4% 10.9% Logistic Regression 3.3% 17.5% 6.3% 2.9% 1.1% 8.5% 16.0% 14.4%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 35.6% 26.1% 7.5% 3.6% 15.5% 33.2% 20.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 13.5% 6.1% 3.3% 2.0% 5.5% 13.1% 22.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 19.0% 11.1% 4.4% 2.3% 8.0% 18.1% 21.8% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 30.2% 15.2% 8.8% 5.5% 13.3% 28.4% 57.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 24.3% 15.5% 5.2% 2.3% 24.7% 48.1% 59.2% Logistic Regression 2.6% 8.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 2.8% 10.2% 9.1%
Bayesian 1.9% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 34.0% 63.0% 98.0%
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Nine at 09/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 16.1% 20.0% 2.9% 1.8% 10.9% 15.0% 15.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 16.0% 8.6% 4.0% 0.2% 1.5% 8.9% 2.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 16.0% 11.4% 3.7% 0.5% 3.8% 10.4% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 35.5% 20.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 12.0% 11.5% 1.9% 1.4% 6.9% 12.0% 55.3% Logistic Regression 2.8% 11.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.5% 4.4% 6.8% 7.6%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% 95.0%
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