Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Isaac intensity image current Isaac RI diff image

 


Isaac at 09/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 54 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 54 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 52 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/29/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/29/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 7.4% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 16.1% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 6.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 5.1% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 8.3% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 7.4% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 17.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 7.0% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 7.6% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.5% 2.5% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 4.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 13.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.7% 4.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 10.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 7.0% 3.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 12.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 5.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.9% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 11.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.6% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 12.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Isaac at 09/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.7% 10.5% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 3.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------