Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Joyce intensity image current Joyce RI diff image

 


Joyce at 10/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 7.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% Logistic Regression 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.3% 6.0% 3.9% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.4% 6.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 10.4% 6.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 10.2% 6.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 7.7% 4.8% 3.5% 1.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/29/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 11.9% 7.8% 6.2% 4.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/29/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.1% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.7% 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.5% 5.4% 4.3% 2.5% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 5.7% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Joyce at 09/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.9% 4.3% 3.8% 2.4% 6.4% 5.7% 8.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Joyce at 09/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.8% 5.4% 1.3% 0.1% 2.8% 3.4% 6.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.4% 3.4% 3.1% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.7% 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 3.2% 3.2% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 10.0% 6.5% 5.5% 3.8% 8.1% 7.5% 9.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.4% 1.7% 3.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.2%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.7% 5.6% 2.5% 0.4% 1.0% 3.5% 3.3% 4.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.2% 3.2% 3.1% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.4% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 3.3% 3.1% 4.4% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.8% 6.2% 4.9% 3.3% 7.7% 7.5% 11.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 13.6% 12.5% 6.3% 1.6% 8.7% 5.0% 13.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.6% 4.5% 3.2% 1.9% 4.6% 4.4% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 8.0% 6.2% 3.9% 1.7% 5.5% 4.2% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 14.0% 9.1% 7.0% 4.6% 9.6% 9.6% 13.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 7.8% 6.7% 3.6% 0.8% 4.3% 2.5% 6.7% Logistic Regression 3.2% 4.5% 2.6% 2.3% 0.9% 3.3% 2.4% 1.9%
Bayesian 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.8% 20.5% 11.7% 7.5% 5.3% 24.1% 11.2% 13.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 9.6% 6.1% 3.9% 2.1% 5.7% 5.1% 5.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 11.0% 6.5% 4.2% 2.6% 9.7% 6.1% 7.5% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 15.5% 10.2% 7.6% 4.9% 10.3% 10.6% 14.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.9% 12.2% 7.3% 4.7% 3.1% 12.0% 5.6% 6.9% Logistic Regression 4.6% 8.1% 4.2% 3.0% 1.3% 5.5% 2.9% 2.4%
Bayesian 4.8% 5.3% 3.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% 1.7% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Joyce at 09/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 11.2% 7.1% 5.6% 2.6% 12.3% 8.8% 13.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.7% 4.2% 2.7% 1.6% 4.5% 4.4% 5.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 6.4% 5.5% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 13.4% 8.6% 6.2% 3.8% 8.8% 8.8% 13.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.4% 26.6% 19.0% 15.3% 9.3% 9.1% 4.9% 6.8% Logistic Regression 2.9% 6.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4.3%
Bayesian 1.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 10.0% 42.0% 31.0% 25.0% 16.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------