Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twelve intensity image current Twelve RI diff image

 


Kirk at 10/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 7.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 2.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 8.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 1.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 7.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 8.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 2.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 7.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.2% 3.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 5.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 4.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 6.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 5.5% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 14.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 7.0% 6.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 10.0% 11.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.1% 6.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.6% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.7% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 13.5% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.5% 7.6% 6.0% 2.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 9.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Kirk at 10/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.2% 11.9% 4.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 20.0% 17.1% 12.5% 7.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.0% 15.8% 10.4% 6.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 23.6% 31.3% 27.8% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 28.6% 22.4% 17.0% 10.8% 2.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.7% 16.1% 8.3% 3.1% 1.2% 2.2% 1.8% 0.2%
Bayesian 23.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 41.0% 33.0% 30.0% 19.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.4% 14.3% 8.4% 4.4% 3.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 25.1% 24.4% 18.2% 11.6% 1.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.9% 21.8% 15.7% 9.7% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 28.4% 37.2% 32.3% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.2% 20.1% 14.2% 7.2% 2.7% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.6% 34.9% 21.4% 12.1% 5.5% 7.5% 3.4% 0.3%
Bayesian 22.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 30.0% 26.0% 20.0% 10.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.3% 33.6% 16.9% 10.5% 9.7% 1.6% 3.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 17.1% 9.4% 5.8% 3.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 21.2% 11.2% 6.9% 5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 26.1% 16.7% 9.8% 7.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 26.1% 55.8% 41.9% 36.2% 24.3% 19.8% 6.6% 1.2% Logistic Regression 7.2% 17.6% 8.4% 4.7% 2.5%
Bayesian 16.3% 7.5% 3.1% 2.9%
DTOPS 42.0% 78.0% 67.0% 62.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.8% 48.6% 22.4% 26.1% 15.8% 6.0% 5.4% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 21.5% 34.2% 21.7% 15.3% 9.8% 12.1% 8.5% 6.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.8% 37.8% 21.8% 18.0% 11.2% 10.5% 7.7% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 16.8% 45.4% 33.2% 23.0% 17.8% 24.6% 19.3% 18.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 29.4% 65.8% 44.2% 39.5% 30.9% 37.5% 21.2% 2.3% Logistic Regression 18.2% 33.6% 20.0% 11.6% 6.0% 10.1% 5.8% 1.5%
Bayesian 29.4% 23.7% 11.8% 11.5% 5.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 40.0% 83.0% 66.0% 53.0% 46.0% 69.0% 37.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.9% 49.2% 36.5% 23.2% 19.2% 7.3% 10.2% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 13.5% 30.3% 19.5% 13.6% 9.2% 11.4% 8.3% 7.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.3% 35.0% 23.7% 15.9% 11.7% 10.3% 8.8% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 42.8% 30.1% 22.5% 17.8% 23.3% 18.6% 19.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.4% 60.6% 40.7% 26.6% 19.1% 29.6% 30.6% 13.3% Logistic Regression 13.9% 26.9% 15.6% 10.4% 5.8% 9.0% 6.1% 2.2%
Bayesian 14.4% 21.4% 12.9% 7.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0%
DTOPS 44.0% 72.0% 45.0% 30.0% 19.0% 52.0% 51.0% 25.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.2% 33.4% 17.1% 14.3% 15.2% 5.7% 11.0% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 27.1% 14.8% 8.6% 5.9% 9.2% 8.7% 8.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.1% 28.6% 15.3% 9.9% 8.2% 8.3% 9.3% 6.9% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 37.7% 24.2% 14.7% 9.5% 18.6% 17.6% 21.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.1% 54.2% 34.5% 23.1% 15.1% 34.8% 39.5% 11.4% Logistic Regression 9.4% 22.0% 11.0% 6.1% 3.2% 5.7% 7.5% 3.8%
Bayesian 11.2% 21.6% 9.2% 4.8% 4.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2%
DTOPS 21.0% 75.0% 52.0% 32.0% 15.0% 64.0% 68.0% 21.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.1% 61.6% 43.6% 23.5% 35.3% 21.2% 8.3% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 23.4% 40.9% 30.9% 22.0% 12.0% 20.5% 12.4% 9.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 25.3% 46.0% 34.0% 22.3% 17.8% 20.7% 11.3% 8.0% SHIPS-RII 17.8% 53.1% 39.1% 27.5% 18.7% 35.2% 24.0% 22.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 27.5% 66.3% 42.8% 26.7% 29.6% 41.1% 23.6% 8.9% Logistic Regression 18.1% 32.9% 20.4% 16.5% 6.9% 17.2% 10.5% 5.9%
Bayesian 34.4% 36.6% 33.2% 22.0% 10.3% 9.2% 2.6% 0.1%
DTOPS 24.0% 71.0% 42.0% 30.0% 24.0% 61.0% 39.0% 14.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.7% 46.9% 22.2% 8.4% 7.3% 13.5% 15.9% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 10.9% 19.3% 11.1% 4.7% 3.0% 10.5% 10.1% 9.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 23.1% 10.7% 5.1% 3.7% 10.1% 11.2% 9.7% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 38.5% 23.8% 10.0% 7.4% 20.6% 21.8% 24.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.8% 41.4% 18.1% 10.2% 6.1% 13.2% 18.4% 13.7% Logistic Regression 4.6% 11.7% 5.0% 2.9% 1.0% 4.3% 5.0% 4.0%
Bayesian 22.1% 7.7% 4.4% 1.0% 0.5% 6.6% 3.5% 1.3%
DTOPS 13.0% 29.0% 13.0% 13.0% 9.0% 12.0% 23.0% 28.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 46.1% 29.3% 13.2% 6.5% 17.0% 14.4% 9.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 14.9% 7.0% 4.0% 2.6% 9.0% 11.2% 11.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 22.6% 12.5% 6.3% 3.5% 11.0% 12.0% 11.1% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 27.2% 12.2% 8.8% 6.6% 16.0% 21.3% 25.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 40.0% 21.6% 11.6% 4.7% 13.5% 14.7% 17.1% Logistic Regression 3.4% 11.9% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1% 7.0% 8.6% 8.3%
Bayesian 3.2% 5.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 4.0% 3.7% 1.9%
DTOPS 5.0% 34.0% 14.0% 10.0% 3.0% 10.0% 15.0% 25.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 10/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.9% 42.7% 23.8% 11.0% 9.3% 13.2% 17.9% 17.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 30.7% 17.8% 6.9% 4.3% 18.1% 22.1% 18.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 33.7% 19.3% 7.9% 5.5% 16.8% 21.0% 18.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 43.8% 26.7% 10.0% 7.4% 28.7% 31.2% 33.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.9% 35.3% 17.4% 10.5% 7.6% 18.1% 24.4% 37.1% Logistic Regression 6.8% 30.7% 16.0% 8.3% 4.0% 11.6% 11.0% 10.4%
Bayesian 3.4% 17.6% 10.8% 2.5% 1.6% 13.9% 24.0% 11.3%
DTOPS 10.0% 28.0% 11.0% 10.0% 6.0% 23.0% 31.0% 57.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 09/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.0% 56.3% 36.5% 23.1% 21.3% 29.6% 32.8% 21.2% SHIPS Consensus 13.6% 58.0% 35.6% 16.6% 9.7% 33.0% 25.6% 35.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 57.5% 35.8% 18.2% 12.6% 32.1% 27.4% 31.8% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 56.2% 38.2% 22.7% 8.1% 39.7% 45.7% 50.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 24.0% 57.6% 33.2% 27.0% 14.6% 23.3% 29.4% 43.1% Logistic Regression 13.9% 45.3% 24.3% 10.5% 5.5% 17.6% 16.7% 22.9%
Bayesian 19.6% 72.6% 44.2% 16.6% 15.6% 41.8% 14.5% 33.0%
DTOPS 25.0% 59.0% 30.0% 31.0% 8.0% 17.0% 26.0% 65.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kirk at 09/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.6% 48.8% 26.6% 17.0% 6.2% 17.4% 21.9% 25.0% SHIPS Consensus 12.8% 59.2% 34.7% 14.4% 7.5% 30.8% 39.0% 50.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 40.4% 20.3% 8.5% 4.4% 15.7% 21.1% 38.6% SHIPS-RII 6.8% 51.8% 35.4% 22.1% 7.8% 37.9% 48.4% 59.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 31.9% 16.3% 11.0% 3.6% 11.7% 17.9% 26.5% Logistic Regression 15.4% 56.0% 35.9% 12.9% 8.5% 25.3% 30.0% 33.6%
Bayesian 16.0% 69.9% 32.7% 8.3% 6.1% 29.1% 38.8% 59.8%
DTOPS 8.0% 23.0% 12.0% 17.0% 5.0% 9.0% 20.0% 28.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 20.5% 4.7% 8.5% 3.8% 5.6% 17.3% 26.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 17.7% 9.3% 3.8% 2.4% 8.8% 17.5% 28.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 18.4% 8.1% 4.9% 2.7% 8.0% 17.4% 27.6% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 16.8% 10.6% 7.2% 4.8% 12.0% 14.3% 30.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 16.7% 4.8% 5.2% 2.4% 5.8% 12.6% 39.7% Logistic Regression 5.2% 26.2% 13.9% 3.8% 2.3% 12.2% 18.2% 24.9%
Bayesian 1.4% 10.2% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% 20.1% 28.6%
DTOPS 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 8.0% 53.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 27.9% 9.9% 13.1% 3.6% 16.3% 14.5% 29.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 13.6% 7.8% 3.5% 2.1% 6.6% 9.1% 15.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 17.2% 8.3% 5.9% 2.4% 9.0% 10.3% 18.8% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 16.7% 10.5% 7.2% 4.7% 11.5% 13.0% 23.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 26.4% 8.9% 8.5% 2.8% 11.1% 11.2% 40.0% Logistic Regression 4.9% 17.5% 9.4% 3.0% 1.3% 6.3% 6.9% 8.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 6.7% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 7.2% 14.4%
DTOPS 4.0% 25.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 8.0% 51.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Twelve at 09/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.4% 36.8% 16.2% 19.4% 5.0% 6.9% 14.0% 37.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 28.6% 14.3% 6.9% 4.5% 13.0% 19.2% 37.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 30.6% 14.8% 10.0% 4.6% 11.4% 17.9% 37.2% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 17.8% 11.5% 8.1% 5.2% 12.0% 13.4% 25.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 30.9% 12.1% 11.2% 3.0% 5.9% 11.0% 27.6% Logistic Regression 9.1% 34.9% 20.7% 11.4% 7.4% 19.0% 22.9% 41.7%
Bayesian 2.9% 33.1% 10.8% 1.3% 0.8% 7.9% 21.3% 44.3%
DTOPS 3.0% 25.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% 18.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------