Kirk at 10/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 67 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 79 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 91 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 101 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 106 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 109 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 119 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
1.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 144 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
1.5% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.6% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
1.5% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.4% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 152 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.3% |
2.9% |
1.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
1.1% |
2.3% |
1.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
2.7% |
7.9% |
5.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.0% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 154 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
3.5% |
2.3% |
1.9% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.8% |
3.2% |
2.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
2.2% |
2.9% |
2.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.7% |
8.4% |
5.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
2.7% |
1.6% |
1.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
1.3% |
1.1% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
2.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 153 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.2% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.4% |
2.5% |
1.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
1.1% |
2.1% |
1.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.4% |
7.1% |
5.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
0.6% |
0.9% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 150 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
1.1% |
1.7% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.7% |
2.8% |
1.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
1.5% |
2.5% |
1.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.9% |
8.0% |
5.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
1.5% |
1.8% |
1.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 151 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
4.2% |
3.2% |
1.8% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
1.9% |
2.7% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
2.4% |
2.8% |
1.9% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
4.5% |
7.9% |
5.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.1% |
2.6% |
2.4% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
4.0% |
2.0% |
3.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 147 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
2.0% |
1.6% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
4.4% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
3.7% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
7.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.0% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.3% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
3.3% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
6.0% |
2.0% |
3.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 143 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
3.0% |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
2.3% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
11.2% |
3.5% |
4.1% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
3.7% |
2.2% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
5.4% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
22.0% |
6.0% |
8.0% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 140 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
1.1% |
4.1% |
1.6% |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
4.7% |
6.1% |
4.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
3.8% |
5.5% |
3.4% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
7.4% |
14.3% |
10.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.0% |
7.0% |
6.3% |
3.1% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
3.6% |
2.8% |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
3.2% |
1.1% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
7.0% |
10.0% |
11.0% |
5.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 140 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
3.1% |
6.3% |
2.1% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
3.3% |
5.6% |
3.7% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
3.3% |
5.7% |
3.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
6.6% |
13.5% |
9.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
7.5% |
7.6% |
6.0% |
2.5% |
0.6% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
2.0% |
2.6% |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
1.5% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
12.0% |
9.0% |
10.0% |
4.0% |
1.0% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 142 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
16.2% |
11.9% |
4.1% |
2.6% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
20.0% |
17.1% |
12.5% |
7.6% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
19.0% |
15.8% |
10.4% |
6.3% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
23.6% |
31.3% |
27.8% |
18.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
28.6% |
22.4% |
17.0% |
10.8% |
2.3% |
2.1% |
0.7% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
12.7% |
16.1% |
8.3% |
3.1% |
1.2% |
2.2% |
1.8% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
23.8% |
4.0% |
1.5% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
41.0% |
33.0% |
30.0% |
19.0% |
4.0% |
4.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 143 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
32.4% |
14.3% |
8.4% |
4.4% |
3.5% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
25.1% |
24.4% |
18.2% |
11.6% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
1.1% |
0.1% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
26.9% |
21.8% |
15.7% |
9.7% |
2.2% |
1.9% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
28.4% |
37.2% |
32.3% |
22.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
31.2% |
20.1% |
14.2% |
7.2% |
2.7% |
1.7% |
1.2% |
0.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
24.6% |
34.9% |
21.4% |
12.1% |
5.5% |
7.5% |
3.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
22.5% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
30.0% |
26.0% |
20.0% |
10.0% |
2.0% |
3.0% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 144 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
10.3% |
33.6% |
16.9% |
10.5% |
9.7% |
1.6% |
3.2% |
0.5% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
11.2% |
17.1% |
9.4% |
5.8% |
3.7% |
|
|
|
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
10.9% |
21.2% |
11.2% |
6.9% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
4.8% |
3.8% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
10.1% |
26.1% |
16.7% |
9.8% |
7.8% |
|
|
|
AI-RI and DTOPS |
26.1% |
55.8% |
41.9% |
36.2% |
24.3% |
19.8% |
6.6% |
1.2% |
|
Logistic Regression |
7.2% |
17.6% |
8.4% |
4.7% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
16.3% |
7.5% |
3.1% |
2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
42.0% |
78.0% |
67.0% |
62.0% |
|
|
|
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 141 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
18.8% |
48.6% |
22.4% |
26.1% |
15.8% |
6.0% |
5.4% |
0.7% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
21.5% |
34.2% |
21.7% |
15.3% |
9.8% |
12.1% |
8.5% |
6.6% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
20.8% |
37.8% |
21.8% |
18.0% |
11.2% |
10.5% |
7.7% |
5.1% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
16.8% |
45.4% |
33.2% |
23.0% |
17.8% |
24.6% |
19.3% |
18.3% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
29.4% |
65.8% |
44.2% |
39.5% |
30.9% |
37.5% |
21.2% |
2.3% |
|
Logistic Regression |
18.2% |
33.6% |
20.0% |
11.6% |
6.0% |
10.1% |
5.8% |
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
29.4% |
23.7% |
11.8% |
11.5% |
5.5% |
1.6% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
40.0% |
83.0% |
66.0% |
53.0% |
46.0% |
69.0% |
37.0% |
4.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 139 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
16.9% |
49.2% |
36.5% |
23.2% |
19.2% |
7.3% |
10.2% |
1.7% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
13.5% |
30.3% |
19.5% |
13.6% |
9.2% |
11.4% |
8.3% |
7.2% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
14.3% |
35.0% |
23.7% |
15.9% |
11.7% |
10.3% |
8.8% |
5.8% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
12.3% |
42.8% |
30.1% |
22.5% |
17.8% |
23.3% |
18.6% |
19.4% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
30.4% |
60.6% |
40.7% |
26.6% |
19.1% |
29.6% |
30.6% |
13.3% |
|
Logistic Regression |
13.9% |
26.9% |
15.6% |
10.4% |
5.8% |
9.0% |
6.1% |
2.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
14.4% |
21.4% |
12.9% |
7.8% |
4.0% |
2.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
44.0% |
72.0% |
45.0% |
30.0% |
19.0% |
52.0% |
51.0% |
25.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
13.2% |
33.4% |
17.1% |
14.3% |
15.2% |
5.7% |
11.0% |
1.9% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
9.2% |
27.1% |
14.8% |
8.6% |
5.9% |
9.2% |
8.7% |
8.6% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
10.1% |
28.6% |
15.3% |
9.9% |
8.2% |
8.3% |
9.3% |
6.9% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
6.9% |
37.7% |
24.2% |
14.7% |
9.5% |
18.6% |
17.6% |
21.8% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
17.1% |
54.2% |
34.5% |
23.1% |
15.1% |
34.8% |
39.5% |
11.4% |
|
Logistic Regression |
9.4% |
22.0% |
11.0% |
6.1% |
3.2% |
5.7% |
7.5% |
3.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
11.2% |
21.6% |
9.2% |
4.8% |
4.9% |
3.4% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
21.0% |
75.0% |
52.0% |
32.0% |
15.0% |
64.0% |
68.0% |
21.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
31.1% |
61.6% |
43.6% |
23.5% |
35.3% |
21.2% |
8.3% |
3.8% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
23.4% |
40.9% |
30.9% |
22.0% |
12.0% |
20.5% |
12.4% |
9.5% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
25.3% |
46.0% |
34.0% |
22.3% |
17.8% |
20.7% |
11.3% |
8.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
17.8% |
53.1% |
39.1% |
27.5% |
18.7% |
35.2% |
24.0% |
22.3% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
27.5% |
66.3% |
42.8% |
26.7% |
29.6% |
41.1% |
23.6% |
8.9% |
|
Logistic Regression |
18.1% |
32.9% |
20.4% |
16.5% |
6.9% |
17.2% |
10.5% |
5.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
34.4% |
36.6% |
33.2% |
22.0% |
10.3% |
9.2% |
2.6% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
24.0% |
71.0% |
42.0% |
30.0% |
24.0% |
61.0% |
39.0% |
14.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
7.7% |
46.9% |
22.2% |
8.4% |
7.3% |
13.5% |
15.9% |
8.4% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
10.9% |
19.3% |
11.1% |
4.7% |
3.0% |
10.5% |
10.1% |
9.9% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
6.7% |
23.1% |
10.7% |
5.1% |
3.7% |
10.1% |
11.2% |
9.7% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
6.1% |
38.5% |
23.8% |
10.0% |
7.4% |
20.6% |
21.8% |
24.6% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
7.8% |
41.4% |
18.1% |
10.2% |
6.1% |
13.2% |
18.4% |
13.7% |
|
Logistic Regression |
4.6% |
11.7% |
5.0% |
2.9% |
1.0% |
4.3% |
5.0% |
4.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
22.1% |
7.7% |
4.4% |
1.0% |
0.5% |
6.6% |
3.5% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
13.0% |
29.0% |
13.0% |
13.0% |
9.0% |
12.0% |
23.0% |
28.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
4.4% |
46.1% |
29.3% |
13.2% |
6.5% |
17.0% |
14.4% |
9.3% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
3.6% |
14.9% |
7.0% |
4.0% |
2.6% |
9.0% |
11.2% |
11.8% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
3.8% |
22.6% |
12.5% |
6.3% |
3.5% |
11.0% |
12.0% |
11.1% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
4.2% |
27.2% |
12.2% |
8.8% |
6.6% |
16.0% |
21.3% |
25.1% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.7% |
40.0% |
21.6% |
11.6% |
4.7% |
13.5% |
14.7% |
17.1% |
|
Logistic Regression |
3.4% |
11.9% |
5.3% |
2.4% |
1.1% |
7.0% |
8.6% |
8.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
3.2% |
5.5% |
3.5% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
4.0% |
3.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
5.0% |
34.0% |
14.0% |
10.0% |
3.0% |
10.0% |
15.0% |
25.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 10/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
7.9% |
42.7% |
23.8% |
11.0% |
9.3% |
13.2% |
17.9% |
17.2% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
5.3% |
30.7% |
17.8% |
6.9% |
4.3% |
18.1% |
22.1% |
18.2% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
5.9% |
33.7% |
19.3% |
7.9% |
5.5% |
16.8% |
21.0% |
18.0% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
5.5% |
43.8% |
26.7% |
10.0% |
7.4% |
28.7% |
31.2% |
33.1% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
8.9% |
35.3% |
17.4% |
10.5% |
7.6% |
18.1% |
24.4% |
37.1% |
|
Logistic Regression |
6.8% |
30.7% |
16.0% |
8.3% |
4.0% |
11.6% |
11.0% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
3.4% |
17.6% |
10.8% |
2.5% |
1.6% |
13.9% |
24.0% |
11.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
10.0% |
28.0% |
11.0% |
10.0% |
6.0% |
23.0% |
31.0% |
57.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 09/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
23.0% |
56.3% |
36.5% |
23.1% |
21.3% |
29.6% |
32.8% |
21.2% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
13.6% |
58.0% |
35.6% |
16.6% |
9.7% |
33.0% |
25.6% |
35.4% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
15.9% |
57.5% |
35.8% |
18.2% |
12.6% |
32.1% |
27.4% |
31.8% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
7.3% |
56.2% |
38.2% |
22.7% |
8.1% |
39.7% |
45.7% |
50.3% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
24.0% |
57.6% |
33.2% |
27.0% |
14.6% |
23.3% |
29.4% |
43.1% |
|
Logistic Regression |
13.9% |
45.3% |
24.3% |
10.5% |
5.5% |
17.6% |
16.7% |
22.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
19.6% |
72.6% |
44.2% |
16.6% |
15.6% |
41.8% |
14.5% |
33.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
25.0% |
59.0% |
30.0% |
31.0% |
8.0% |
17.0% |
26.0% |
65.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Kirk at 09/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 150 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
5.6% |
48.8% |
26.6% |
17.0% |
6.2% |
17.4% |
21.9% |
25.0% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
12.8% |
59.2% |
34.7% |
14.4% |
7.5% |
30.8% |
39.0% |
50.8% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
5.5% |
40.4% |
20.3% |
8.5% |
4.4% |
15.7% |
21.1% |
38.6% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
6.8% |
51.8% |
35.4% |
22.1% |
7.8% |
37.9% |
48.4% |
59.2% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.3% |
31.9% |
16.3% |
11.0% |
3.6% |
11.7% |
17.9% |
26.5% |
|
Logistic Regression |
15.4% |
56.0% |
35.9% |
12.9% |
8.5% |
25.3% |
30.0% |
33.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
16.0% |
69.9% |
32.7% |
8.3% |
6.1% |
29.1% |
38.8% |
59.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
8.0% |
23.0% |
12.0% |
17.0% |
5.0% |
9.0% |
20.0% |
28.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Twelve at 09/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
1.0% |
20.5% |
4.7% |
8.5% |
3.8% |
5.6% |
17.3% |
26.5% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
2.8% |
17.7% |
9.3% |
3.8% |
2.4% |
8.8% |
17.5% |
28.0% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
2.3% |
18.4% |
8.1% |
4.9% |
2.7% |
8.0% |
17.4% |
27.6% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
1.8% |
16.8% |
10.6% |
7.2% |
4.8% |
12.0% |
14.3% |
30.5% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
1.5% |
16.7% |
4.8% |
5.2% |
2.4% |
5.8% |
12.6% |
39.7% |
|
Logistic Regression |
5.2% |
26.2% |
13.9% |
3.8% |
2.3% |
12.2% |
18.2% |
24.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
1.4% |
10.2% |
3.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
2.3% |
20.1% |
28.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
2.0% |
13.0% |
5.0% |
2.0% |
1.0% |
6.0% |
8.0% |
53.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Twelve at 09/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
2.5% |
27.9% |
9.9% |
13.1% |
3.6% |
16.3% |
14.5% |
29.1% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
2.8% |
13.6% |
7.8% |
3.5% |
2.1% |
6.6% |
9.1% |
15.4% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
2.7% |
17.2% |
8.3% |
5.9% |
2.4% |
9.0% |
10.3% |
18.8% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
2.0% |
16.7% |
10.5% |
7.2% |
4.7% |
11.5% |
13.0% |
23.9% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
3.2% |
26.4% |
8.9% |
8.5% |
2.8% |
11.1% |
11.2% |
40.0% |
|
Logistic Regression |
4.9% |
17.5% |
9.4% |
3.0% |
1.3% |
6.3% |
6.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
1.5% |
6.7% |
3.5% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
1.9% |
7.2% |
14.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
4.0% |
25.0% |
8.0% |
4.0% |
2.0% |
6.0% |
8.0% |
51.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
Twelve at 09/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts |
|
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/48 |
65/72 |
AI-RI |
6.4% |
36.8% |
16.2% |
19.4% |
5.0% |
6.9% |
14.0% |
37.2% |
|
SHIPS Consensus |
5.1% |
28.6% |
14.3% |
6.9% |
4.5% |
13.0% |
19.2% |
37.3% |
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus |
5.4% |
30.6% |
14.8% |
10.0% |
4.6% |
11.4% |
17.9% |
37.2% |
|
SHIPS-RII |
3.3% |
17.8% |
11.5% |
8.1% |
5.2% |
12.0% |
13.4% |
25.9% |
AI-RI and DTOPS |
4.7% |
30.9% |
12.1% |
11.2% |
3.0% |
5.9% |
11.0% |
27.6% |
|
Logistic Regression |
9.1% |
34.9% |
20.7% |
11.4% |
7.4% |
19.0% |
22.9% |
41.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bayesian |
2.9% |
33.1% |
10.8% |
1.3% |
0.8% |
7.9% |
21.3% |
44.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DTOPS |
3.0% |
25.0% |
8.0% |
3.0% |
1.0% |
5.0% |
8.0% |
18.0% |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|
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|