Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Leslie at 10/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/12/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 5.1% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 7.6% 5.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 2.2% 1.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 11.0% 7.4% 6.4% 4.9% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 6.5% 4.3% 4.0% 2.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.1% 3.2% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.9% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/10/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 7.1% 5.9% 4.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 3.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.3% 4.4% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 3.5% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/09/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.4% 10.0% 6.3% 11.7% 3.4% 1.1% 1.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 6.0% 4.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 7.0% 4.8% 3.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 10.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.2% 6.5% 4.6% 6.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 3.3% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 3.8% 4.3% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/09/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.8% 10.3% 9.7% 4.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 6.6% 5.3% 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 7.5% 6.3% 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 12.5% 9.1% 8.1% 7.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.9% 7.6% 7.3% 3.4% 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Logistic Regression 5.1% 5.7% 5.2% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/09/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 19.1% 15.0% 2.3% 5.0% 3.0% 0.2% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 8.3% 7.3% 5.1% 3.6% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 11.0% 9.2% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 16.7% 14.7% 10.5% 9.2% 8.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.1% 15.5% 13.0% 4.1% 5.0% 2.0% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 6.3% 9.1% 9.4% 5.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 1.3% 1.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 12.0% 11.0% 6.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.7% 16.9% 14.6% 4.6% 2.7% 3.7% 2.1% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 10.2% 10.6% 9.1% 4.9% 3.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 12.1% 10.4% 4.8% 3.1% 4.0% 0.6% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 16.4% 15.5% 11.0% 9.3% 8.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.8% 14.9% 13.8% 6.3% 3.8% 2.8% 1.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 8.7% 9.7% 9.3% 4.8% 1.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian 5.6% 6.5% 6.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 13.0% 13.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 25.0% 16.3% 5.9% 11.0% 5.8% 3.6% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 8.4% 7.0% 4.4% 3.0% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 12.5% 9.3% 4.7% 5.0% 4.6% 1.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 14.8% 10.4% 8.6% 7.6% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 16.5% 11.1% 4.4% 6.5% 3.9% 1.8% 2.0% Logistic Regression 5.5% 6.6% 6.3% 4.2% 1.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian 2.5% 3.8% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 18.5% 20.3% 3.1% 1.6% 8.0% 0.9% 5.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.0% 4.7% 3.5% 0.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 9.1% 8.6% 3.3% 0.5% 5.1% 0.3% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 14.3% 9.6% 7.7% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 10.2% 10.6% 2.0% 1.3% 5.0% 0.4% 3.4% Logistic Regression 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.7% 16.6% 18.5% 5.4% 4.6% 4.7% 1.4% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 7.6% 5.9% 4.2% 0.5% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 9.8% 9.0% 4.5% 1.5% 4.9% 0.5% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 15.0% 10.2% 8.3% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 9.3% 10.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 0.7% 1.9% Logistic Regression 9.0% 5.7% 5.3% 4.2% 1.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.5% 10.5% 14.7% 3.3% 5.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.2% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 6.5% 6.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 2.4% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 12.6% 8.4% 7.2% 6.7% 10.1% 7.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 5.7% 7.8% 1.6% 3.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.7% Logistic Regression 4.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 1.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian 1.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 9.1% 11.9% 6.8% 3.2% 3.7% 1.8% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.0% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 9.8% 6.4% 5.4% 5.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 5.0% 6.4% 3.4% 1.6% 2.3% 0.9% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 10.1% 5.5% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 12.0% 8.1% 6.8% 6.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 5.5% 3.2% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% Logistic Regression 2.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 18.3% 12.8% 2.0% 1.2% 5.2% 0.5% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 4.6% 3.7% 3.2% 2.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 8.0% 6.0% 2.8% 2.0% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 11.5% 7.9% 6.8% 6.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 9.6% 6.9% 1.0% 0.6% 2.6% 0.2% 0.8% Logistic Regression 2.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.3% 15.2% 10.5% 4.3% 5.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.4% 4.5% 3.7% 2.7% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 7.8% 6.0% 3.8% 3.3% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 12.5% 8.6% 7.3% 6.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 8.1% 5.7% 2.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 3.8% 1.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian 0.9% 1.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.4% 38.1% 29.8% 4.9% 10.2% 4.4% 2.5% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 9.6% 9.6% 5.4% 3.7% 6.0% 3.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.0% 16.7% 14.6% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 3.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 15.3% 10.6% 8.6% 7.0% 10.2% 8.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.7% 19.5% 15.4% 2.4% 5.1% 2.2% 1.2% 1.6% Logistic Regression 7.1% 5.4% 4.4% 7.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian 7.8% 8.2% 13.9% 0.7% 1.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.1% 38.2% 28.5% 10.7% 7.1% 4.0% 0.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 16.6% 12.4% 5.0% 3.8% 6.2% 3.6% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 22.0% 16.4% 6.4% 4.6% 5.6% 2.8% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 16.2% 11.0% 8.8% 7.0% 10.3% 8.7% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.5% 20.1% 15.2% 5.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.3% 1.0% Logistic Regression 7.4% 5.4% 3.5% 5.1% 2.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.3% Bayesian 10.4% 28.2% 22.7% 1.0% 1.9% 4.1% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.7% 41.9% 19.4% 18.5% 18.9% 8.4% 1.1% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 12.4% 10.9% 6.6% 4.6% 6.5% 4.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.8% 19.7% 13.0% 9.5% 8.2% 7.0% 3.3% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 17.7% 11.6% 9.1% 7.7% 11.4% 9.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.3% 22.9% 10.7% 9.7% 9.9% 4.7% 0.5% 1.4% Logistic Regression 13.2% 8.7% 6.1% 9.6% 4.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.4% Bayesian 8.0% 10.7% 14.9% 1.0% 1.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.7% 29.7% 26.5% 19.0% 9.2% 7.8% 5.3% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 10.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.3% 6.8% 4.9% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.9% 15.1% 11.0% 8.1% 4.8% 7.0% 5.0% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 15.9% 10.3% 8.2% 6.7% 10.9% 9.1% 11.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 17.3% 16.3% 14.2% 10.0% 5.1% 4.4% 2.6% 1.1% Logistic Regression 4.5% 5.5% 2.9% 5.1% 3.1% 6.8% 4.0% 1.0% Bayesian 4.7% 9.6% 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.5% 44.9% 16.2% 25.0% 12.8% 8.2% 1.8% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 10.1% 6.0% 5.2% 3.8% 6.7% 4.3% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 18.8% 8.5% 10.1% 6.0% 7.1% 3.6% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 16.6% 10.8% 8.6% 7.1% 11.1% 9.1% 10.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.7% 24.4% 9.1% 13.0% 6.9% 4.6% 0.9% 1.2% Logistic Regression 4.7% 6.2% 3.3% 6.8% 4.2% 7.4% 3.0% 0.9% Bayesian 3.7% 7.6% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.6% 35.3% 21.0% 21.0% 7.1% 8.1% 2.8% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 40.4% 23.7% 12.7% 8.7% 15.0% 9.5% 6.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 39.0% 23.0% 14.7% 8.2% 13.2% 7.8% 5.0% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 35.1% 22.4% 15.4% 8.6% 13.1% 12.0% 15.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.3% 22.1% 13.5% 13.5% 4.5% 4.5% 1.9% 1.6% Logistic Regression 12.1% 22.9% 13.7% 16.0% 11.3% 16.7% 10.2% 3.3% Bayesian 14.2% 63.0% 35.1% 6.7% 6.2% 15.3% 6.4% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 27.6% 49.8% 30.9% 20.5% 9.7% 11.2% 8.4% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 9.7% 35.9% 19.4% 12.3% 8.2% 16.3% 9.3% 7.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 39.3% 22.2% 14.3% 8.5% 15.0% 9.0% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 33.4% 20.7% 16.1% 9.0% 13.5% 12.3% 16.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 18.3% 30.4% 18.9% 14.7% 5.8% 6.1% 4.7% 2.4% Logistic Regression 10.7% 20.1% 12.4% 16.2% 11.5% 20.3% 10.5% 5.2% Bayesian 10.8% 54.2% 25.1% 4.6% 4.0% 15.2% 5.0% 0.1% DTOPS 9.0% 11.0% 7.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.9% 43.9% 33.2% 27.1% 15.7% 27.8% 12.8% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 34.8% 18.4% 11.6% 8.4% 18.0% 14.4% 8.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 37.0% 22.1% 15.4% 10.2% 20.4% 14.0% 7.9% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 33.5% 20.1% 13.8% 7.8% 15.8% 12.7% 16.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 28.9% 20.6% 18.5% 9.3% 14.9% 7.4% 4.9% Logistic Regression 11.1% 21.1% 13.1% 18.2% 14.5% 25.2% 16.1% 8.0% Bayesian 7.9% 49.8% 22.1% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0% 14.5% 0.4% DTOPS 11.0% 14.0% 8.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.4% 36.5% 33.7% 25.1% 6.7% 22.7% 14.7% 15.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 40.6% 22.4% 13.7% 8.7% 20.1% 12.8% 11.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 39.6% 25.2% 16.5% 8.1% 20.7% 13.2% 12.2% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 37.7% 23.5% 16.1% 7.8% 21.2% 15.2% 19.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.2% 27.2% 20.3% 16.5% 4.8% 12.3% 10.8% 10.6% Logistic Regression 12.4% 26.4% 16.7% 18.6% 14.9% 25.4% 16.5% 12.3% Bayesian 6.4% 57.9% 27.1% 6.4% 3.2% 13.6% 6.7% 1.7% DTOPS 13.0% 18.0% 7.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 40.5% 20.5% 10.1% 5.5% 27.9% 17.1% 12.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 21.5% 9.3% 6.3% 5.2% 10.9% 14.8% 12.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 26.2% 12.1% 7.2% 5.2% 15.1% 15.4% 12.5% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 17.6% 11.4% 8.6% 6.1% 12.5% 13.7% 20.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.6% 25.7% 13.2% 7.0% 3.7% 14.4% 10.0% 9.7% Logistic Regression 7.2% 19.6% 11.4% 9.6% 8.8% 16.6% 18.8% 14.3% Bayesian 1.5% 27.4% 5.1% 0.6% 0.6% 3.5% 12.0% 3.3% DTOPS 5.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.6% 27.5% 14.8% 9.1% 2.7% 18.8% 23.0% 20.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 17.2% 7.6% 4.2% 3.0% 7.5% 9.4% 12.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 19.8% 9.4% 5.4% 2.9% 10.3% 12.8% 14.2% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 16.5% 10.6% 7.9% 5.2% 11.6% 12.7% 21.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 28.2% 15.4% 10.5% 4.3% 19.9% 21.5% 13.7% Logistic Regression 4.8% 11.8% 5.9% 4.0% 2.9% 7.2% 10.8% 11.0% Bayesian 1.6% 23.4% 6.4% 0.6% 0.9% 3.8% 4.7% 4.2% DTOPS 6.0% 29.0% 16.0% 12.0% 6.0% 21.0% 20.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.0% 46.7% 33.2% 14.3% 5.0% 17.3% 26.0% 16.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 28.7% 12.9% 6.9% 5.1% 10.5% 9.6% 11.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 33.1% 17.9% 8.7% 5.0% 12.1% 13.7% 12.3% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 27.8% 14.4% 9.4% 6.3% 13.0% 13.5% 21.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 18.5% 61.8% 41.1% 20.1% 8.0% 47.1% 45.0% 15.7% Logistic Regression 9.0% 20.6% 11.2% 8.5% 5.5% 9.6% 10.9% 9.2% Bayesian 4.5% 37.5% 13.0% 2.8% 3.5% 8.8% 4.4% 2.5% DTOPS 16.0% 77.0% 49.0% 26.0% 11.0% 77.0% 64.0% 15.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.6% 34.9% 24.3% 15.2% 3.1% 12.6% 30.9% 22.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 38.8% 17.7% 9.8% 8.1% 12.8% 10.7% 15.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 29.4% 15.7% 9.1% 4.8% 10.3% 14.7% 15.8% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 28.8% 14.2% 9.3% 6.4% 12.7% 13.1% 22.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.8% 32.4% 17.1% 9.1% 2.5% 8.8% 17.9% 27.5% Logistic Regression 14.8% 35.4% 21.3% 15.9% 13.3% 18.0% 17.2% 17.7% Bayesian 5.9% 52.1% 17.7% 4.2% 4.7% 7.5% 1.8% 6.6% DTOPS 5.0% 44.0% 17.0% 7.0% 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% 20.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.5% 38.8% 34.4% 11.4% 4.8% 16.1% 32.8% 21.2% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 24.8% 12.3% 5.5% 3.4% 6.9% 7.5% 11.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 28.3% 17.8% 6.9% 3.7% 9.2% 13.8% 13.7% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 19.4% 11.7% 8.5% 5.5% 11.5% 11.2% 20.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.2% 38.9% 23.7% 8.2% 3.4% 25.0% 42.9% 29.6% Logistic Regression 11.4% 18.3% 9.7% 5.4% 3.0% 5.9% 10.0% 10.7% Bayesian 4.0% 36.8% 15.5% 2.5% 1.7% 3.3% 1.3% 3.2% DTOPS 4.0% 35.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 41.0% 45.0% 26.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Leslie at 10/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 32.7% 21.6% 4.9% 1.4% 13.7% 20.8% 25.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 18.4% 8.4% 4.1% 2.6% 6.4% 6.0% 8.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 21.9% 11.6% 4.3% 2.3% 8.2% 9.7% 12.9% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 17.5% 11.2% 8.0% 5.0% 11.3% 11.5% 20.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 38.3% 19.3% 5.9% 2.2% 23.8% 29.4% 31.6% Logistic Regression 7.0% 15.9% 7.7% 3.5% 1.8% 3.8% 5.1% 4.7% Bayesian 2.3% 21.8% 6.1% 0.9% 1.2% 4.0% 1.4% 1.3% DTOPS 5.0% 44.0% 17.0% 7.0% 3.0% 34.0% 38.0% 38.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 10/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.1% 38.9% 25.6% 11.9% 4.3% 14.2% 18.6% 26.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 21.1% 10.5% 5.7% 3.4% 7.3% 6.7% 10.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 25.5% 14.2% 7.2% 3.6% 9.0% 9.6% 14.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 20.7% 11.6% 8.1% 5.2% 11.5% 11.7% 20.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.0% 31.4% 15.8% 6.9% 2.6% 22.1% 24.3% 26.6% Logistic Regression 10.4% 28.7% 15.9% 8.3% 4.7% 7.5% 7.7% 7.4% Bayesian 1.3% 13.8% 3.9% 0.6% 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 1.9% DTOPS 3.0% 24.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 30.0% 30.0% 27.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirteen at 10/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 32.2% 14.4% 6.4% 3.1% 16.0% 21.3% 27.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 15.8% 7.8% 4.1% 2.4% 5.9% 7.1% 8.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 19.8% 9.4% 4.6% 2.5% 8.4% 10.6% 13.2% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 16.8% 10.5% 7.0% 4.3% 10.6% 10.8% 19.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 23.1% 9.7% 4.2% 2.0% 10.0% 12.6% 17.4% Logistic Regression 7.3% 23.1% 11.4% 5.0% 2.9% 5.4% 6.7% 3.7% Bayesian 1.1% 7.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 3.7% 2.4% DTOPS 2.0% 14.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------