Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fourteen intensity image current Fourteen RI diff image

 


Milton at 10/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/10/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/09/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/09/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/09/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 179 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 179 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 182 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 3.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 172 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 3.8% 3.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 17.9% 11.5% 10.8% 8.3% 3.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 174 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.4% 2.2% 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 17.4% 10.2% 10.6% 6.3% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.4% 8.2% 8.2% 5.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.7% 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 49.3% 30.5% 31.9% 18.8% 3.6% 5.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 32.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 182 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 22.3% 18.5% 19.0% 8.6% 3.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 25.7% 18.3% 15.8% 12.7% 4.8% 4.3% 0.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 25.6% 18.2% 17.9% 12.8% 4.4% 5.8% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 37.5% 21.8% 14.5% 10.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 50.1% 43.7% 41.5% 26.3% 4.8% 13.5% 2.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 39.6% 33.0% 32.9% 27.3% 7.5% 13.0% 2.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 63.0% 45.0% 45.0% 24.0% 2.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


Milton at 10/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.4% 46.0% 37.9% 28.9% 25.2% 10.7% 1.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 23.1% 15.7% 14.8% 13.6% 4.2% 5.9% 4.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.4% 19.6% 16.0% 13.2% 9.1% 6.8% 3.2% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 19.9% 27.7% 21.3% 16.0% 8.1% 12.3% 11.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 51.7% 72.5% 68.4% 61.4% 50.1% 54.8% 32.5% 0.6% Logistic Regression 15.4% 13.7% 12.3% 7.8% 2.0% 5.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 33.9% 5.7% 10.8% 17.1% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 83.0% 98.0% 98.0% 88.0% 83.0% 98.0% 56.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 172 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.7% 53.5% 37.7% 26.5% 19.0% 7.6% 5.2% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 20.0% 27.8% 21.8% 19.5% 9.3% 10.0% 6.1% 4.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.4% 34.2% 25.7% 21.2% 11.7% 9.4% 5.8% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 21.4% 40.8% 31.0% 23.7% 16.9% 15.4% 12.8% 13.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 18.0% 28.8% 24.2% 18.3% 6.7% 13.8% 5.3% 0.4%
Bayesian 20.7% 13.7% 10.2% 16.5% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.1% 46.2% 45.3% 37.0% 25.1% 30.1% 7.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 31.0% 37.5% 36.8% 35.3% 15.3% 16.4% 8.7% 5.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 33.5% 39.7% 38.9% 35.6% 17.7% 19.8% 8.3% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 29.6% 58.3% 45.4% 40.3% 22.7% 32.9% 21.3% 16.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 53.0% 71.6% 68.6% 54.0% 28.5% 65.0% 52.0% 8.1% Logistic Regression 33.2% 46.0% 45.9% 33.9% 9.6% 15.4% 4.7% 0.7%
Bayesian 30.1% 8.4% 19.2% 31.5% 13.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 65.0% 97.0% 92.0% 71.0% 32.0% 100.0% 97.0% 15.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 182 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.6% 38.1% 39.1% 21.4% 10.3% 31.5% 21.0% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 18.2% 34.2% 30.2% 21.8% 9.7% 16.6% 10.2% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.5% 35.1% 32.4% 21.6% 9.8% 20.3% 12.9% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 52.0% 36.9% 24.9% 16.4% 36.5% 26.2% 19.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 30.8% 59.5% 48.5% 27.7% 10.6% 61.2% 55.0% 28.0% Logistic Regression 26.0% 39.6% 37.9% 22.9% 6.2% 11.9% 4.4% 0.7%
Bayesian 16.5% 11.0% 15.9% 17.5% 6.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 30.0% 81.0% 58.0% 34.0% 11.0% 91.0% 89.0% 50.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 179 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.6% 16.8% 13.1% 3.7% 0.9% 8.3% 1.9% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 14.7% 10.6% 7.0% 3.3% 6.6% 5.2% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 15.2% 11.2% 6.1% 2.7% 7.0% 4.3% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 18.0% 11.6% 8.6% 5.9% 12.4% 12.8% 18.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 41.4% 22.5% 7.3% 2.4% 43.1% 42.9% 38.4% Logistic Regression 6.4% 25.0% 19.6% 11.9% 3.9% 7.2% 2.7% 0.5%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 14.0% 66.0% 32.0% 11.0% 4.0% 78.0% 84.0% 75.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 173 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 23.3% 14.2% 5.2% 2.2% 5.0% 8.4% 4.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 21.9% 12.7% 6.5% 3.4% 6.9% 7.0% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 22.2% 13.0% 6.1% 3.0% 6.4% 7.3% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 26.5% 12.4% 8.8% 5.9% 12.4% 13.3% 20.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 48.6% 28.6% 9.6% 4.1% 42.5% 43.7% 46.3% Logistic Regression 8.7% 34.6% 24.1% 9.7% 3.7% 8.2% 7.2% 3.4%
Bayesian 1.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%
DTOPS 5.0% 74.0% 43.0% 14.0% 6.0% 80.0% 79.0% 88.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Milton at 10/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 176 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.1% 28.0% 18.5% 5.9% 1.6% 8.1% 13.3% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 32.0% 21.1% 7.5% 4.1% 10.0% 8.8% 9.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 31.0% 20.4% 7.1% 3.4% 9.5% 9.9% 9.6% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 41.2% 25.9% 10.2% 7.0% 15.7% 16.8% 23.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 24.5% 12.7% 4.4% 1.3% 5.5% 15.1% 24.4% Logistic Regression 13.3% 46.9% 34.4% 10.9% 4.7% 13.6% 8.7% 4.5%
Bayesian 2.7% 7.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
DTOPS 3.0% 21.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 17.0% 39.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fourteen at 10/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 183 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 25.9% 14.6% 5.1% 1.9% 10.3% 15.0% 12.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 23.5% 12.8% 4.4% 2.7% 8.3% 12.2% 23.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 24.1% 13.2% 4.5% 2.4% 8.8% 12.8% 20.6% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 26.2% 12.0% 8.1% 5.5% 12.5% 15.4% 35.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 15.9% 8.8% 3.5% 1.4% 6.6% 11.5% 39.7% Logistic Regression 9.6% 42.5% 26.0% 4.8% 2.4% 12.2% 20.8% 31.5%
Bayesian 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 2.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 67.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------