Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fifteen intensity image current Fifteen RI diff image

 


Nadine at 10/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 6.2% 4.4% 3.3% 0.8% 3.8% 2.2% 10.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 16.2% 8.4% 4.8% 2.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 13.7% 7.4% 4.4% 1.7% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.5% 16.4% 10.3% 7.2% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.6% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 5.1% Logistic Regression 3.5% 29.2% 14.6% 7.3% 6.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nadine at 10/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 4.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 9.1% 3.9% 2.5% 0.9% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 7.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.5% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.0% 12.0% 6.8% 4.5% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 2.3% Logistic Regression 1.4% 11.0% 4.4% 2.7% 2.6% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.4% 4.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nadine at 10/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.7% 40.5% 17.0% 16.7% 7.0% 4.7% 6.7% 9.8% SHIPS Consensus 17.9% 59.7% 36.9% 26.6% 16.4% 41.1% 30.4% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.8% 54.9% 31.9% 24.1% 14.0% 31.9% 24.4% N/A SHIPS-RII 7.0% 47.4% 32.4% 22.3% 7.9% 34.9% 29.5% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 20.2% 8.5% 8.3% 3.5% 2.3% 3.3% 4.9% Logistic Regression 25.3% 61.7% 45.9% 40.1% 31.5% 44.0% 53.3% N/A
Bayesian 21.3% 70.0% 32.3% 17.4% 9.7% 44.3% 8.4% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nadine at 10/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.9% 49.4% 21.8% 25.1% 7.6% 14.8% 11.5% 7.3% SHIPS Consensus 22.5% 66.9% 44.9% 32.1% 24.9% 48.2% 48.5% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.0% 62.5% 39.1% 30.3% 20.5% 39.8% 39.2% N/A SHIPS-RII 7.1% 49.8% 33.3% 21.2% 7.8% 36.8% 38.5% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.4% 24.7% 10.9% 12.5% 3.8% 7.4% 5.7% 3.6% Logistic Regression 38.4% 75.1% 60.6% 50.4% 44.0% 56.1% 80.2% N/A
Bayesian 21.8% 75.9% 40.9% 24.8% 22.8% 51.7% 26.8% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nadine at 10/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.0% 30.7% 25.6% 11.2% 3.0% 4.4% 11.9% 9.4% SHIPS Consensus 10.2% 48.8% 23.1% 12.3% 9.4% 27.6% 41.2% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.6% 44.3% 23.7% 12.0% 7.8% 21.8% 33.8% N/A SHIPS-RII 5.4% 38.1% 21.7% 9.6% 6.8% 20.8% 28.1% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.5% 15.3% 12.8% 5.6% 1.5% 2.2% 5.9% 4.7% Logistic Regression 15.8% 56.1% 33.8% 22.2% 18.6% 40.7% 70.1% N/A
Bayesian 9.2% 52.3% 13.9% 5.0% 2.9% 21.5% 25.3% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fifteen at 10/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.7% 55.4% 12.9% 15.9% 3.9% 18.9% 6.7% 16.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 43.9% 21.6% 9.4% 6.8% 19.1% 39.3% 76.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 46.8% 19.4% 11.0% 6.0% 19.0% 31.1% 61.5% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 38.5% 21.2% 9.1% 6.2% 14.5% 23.5% 52.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 28.2% 6.4% 7.9% 1.9% 9.4% 3.3% 8.0% Logistic Regression 10.8% 58.3% 33.4% 15.7% 11.2% 29.0% 59.4% 85.6%
Bayesian 3.2% 35.1% 10.2% 3.4% 2.9% 13.9% 35.1% 91.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fifteen at 10/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 35.8% 22.5% 17.4% 10.6% 26.3% 27.6% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 46.2% 23.7% 11.1% 7.1% 23.6% 37.1% 74.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 43.5% 23.4% 12.7% 8.0% 24.2% 34.7% 57.9% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 44.4% 28.0% 9.9% 6.8% 18.2% 22.4% 50.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 19.9% 11.7% 9.2% 5.3% 13.1% 13.8% 4.9% Logistic Regression 10.7% 55.6% 30.0% 16.1% 10.9% 34.7% 61.2% 84.7%
Bayesian 4.7% 38.6% 13.2% 7.4% 3.7% 17.8% 27.7% 87.1%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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