Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Patty intensity image current Patty RI diff image

 


Patty at 11/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 56 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.9% 6.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Patty at 11/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 4.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 63 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 5.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 5.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 7.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 9.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 12.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Patty at 11/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 79 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 11.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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