Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Rafael at 11/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 12.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/10/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 5.8% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/09/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.1% 3.8% 3.3% 2.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/09/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 4.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/09/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 93 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.5% 0.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.2% 9.7% 4.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 4.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.6% 17.8% 13.3% 11.7% 4.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 5.6% 4.1% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.8% 8.9% 6.6% 5.8% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.9% 4.2% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.3% 16.2% 10.2% 10.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 5.2% 3.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.1% 8.1% 5.1% 5.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.0% 15.9% 11.8% 9.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 6.5% 4.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 9.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.5% 8.4% 6.4% 4.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.7% 20.4% 15.5% 9.4% 5.8% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 4.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 8.4% 6.1% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.8% 11.7% 9.7% 5.7% 3.9% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 11.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.2% 9.4% 3.5% 7.9% 10.9% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 4.4% 3.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 5.6% 3.1% 2.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 10.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.1% 5.7% 2.7% 4.4% 5.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.4% 7.9% 7.8% 3.8% 6.5% 2.0% 1.8% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.1% 2.8% 2.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 5.0% 4.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 9.9% 7.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.2% 6.9% 7.4% 3.4% 5.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 12.4% 7.3% 5.2% 7.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.3% 4.0% 3.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 10.5% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 8.7% 6.1% 3.6% 4.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.7% 34.6% 31.0% 29.5% 24.6% 22.7% 4.6% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 23.1% 12.2% 3.7% 3.7% 1.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.0% 17.8% 10.5% 10.1% 7.4% 7.6% 1.7% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 24.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.8% 17.8% 16.5% 15.2% 12.8% 11.8% 2.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 14.4% 16.3% 9.9% 9.8% 4.9% 8.0% 2.4% 0.6% Bayesian 30.5% 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 48.7% 45.3% 53.8% 34.8% 44.6% 40.1% 2.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 27.3% 23.0% 15.4% 13.6% 6.4% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 32.6% 28.6% 25.0% 18.9% 16.0% 12.8% 1.5% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 25.2% 30.3% 27.3% 22.5% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 25.8% 26.1% 30.9% 18.9% 23.3% 21.5% 1.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 15.6% 21.2% 11.5% 9.2% 5.2% 10.8% 3.9% 0.9% Bayesian 41.1% 17.7% 7.6% 9.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 41.0% 49.2% 48.6% 39.9% 36.3% 43.0% 15.4% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 35.9% 45.3% 32.9% 32.9% 15.3% 17.6% 8.8% 0.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 37.0% 46.2% 37.5% 35.5% 20.8% 23.7% 10.3% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 34.2% 53.9% 43.7% 37.8% 24.4% 28.4% 17.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 42.5% 45.6% 37.3% 29.4% 21.1% 29.0% 11.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 27.6% 43.8% 30.2% 22.4% 11.1% 21.5% 8.9% 2.6% Bayesian 45.8% 38.1% 24.8% 38.6% 10.3% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 46.0% 43.0% 26.0% 18.0% 4.0% 15.0% 8.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 39.6% 60.7% 52.7% 31.9% 31.9% 46.3% 31.1% 13.0% SHIPS Consensus 38.0% 61.0% 42.6% 40.7% 21.7% 24.2% 14.6% 2.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 31.8% 58.7% 41.5% 34.3% 22.5% 29.1% 18.2% 9.8% SHIPS-RII 35.7% 63.9% 50.5% 45.5% 28.4% 37.9% 27.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 29.3% 44.3% 34.3% 22.9% 17.9% 26.1% 18.0% 7.0% Logistic Regression 33.1% 61.0% 43.8% 31.8% 18.9% 28.6% 16.4% 7.0% Bayesian 45.2% 58.0% 33.5% 44.8% 17.7% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 27.0% 29.0% 18.0% 16.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.4% 54.1% 45.2% 35.5% 19.8% 48.2% 32.9% 21.9% SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 36.9% 22.4% 16.3% 10.2% 22.2% 16.0% 10.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.6% 41.1% 28.1% 21.1% 12.6% 28.7% 20.2% 13.2% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 55.5% 39.7% 26.4% 18.1% 40.9% 28.8% 20.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 21.7% 53.0% 35.6% 26.7% 18.4% 32.1% 18.9% 11.4% Logistic Regression 11.6% 44.3% 25.8% 21.5% 12.2% 23.9% 18.2% 10.3% Bayesian 9.2% 10.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% DTOPS 21.0% 53.0% 26.0% 18.0% 14.0% 16.0% 5.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.1% 37.4% 31.9% 37.2% 12.2% 32.4% 34.5% 23.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 27.6% 14.7% 8.9% 4.3% 15.4% 16.0% 11.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 30.1% 19.0% 15.9% 6.2% 19.6% 20.6% 14.7% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 43.9% 28.9% 16.6% 7.7% 26.8% 24.2% 22.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.5% 46.2% 30.9% 26.6% 10.6% 29.2% 27.2% 13.1% Logistic Regression 7.2% 27.8% 12.8% 9.1% 4.7% 17.7% 21.5% 12.8% Bayesian 7.6% 11.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.8% 2.3% 0.5% DTOPS 13.0% 55.0% 30.0% 16.0% 9.0% 26.0% 20.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.2% 60.0% 47.3% 33.1% 27.4% 39.6% 24.9% 24.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 31.9% 19.3% 12.7% 5.7% 20.9% 17.7% 12.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 38.9% 26.3% 17.8% 11.1% 25.5% 19.4% 15.7% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 49.6% 33.6% 22.3% 9.4% 35.3% 30.6% 25.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.1% 57.5% 36.1% 21.0% 15.2% 29.3% 16.4% 13.6% Logistic Regression 7.5% 35.8% 20.1% 15.0% 7.2% 23.1% 17.2% 12.8% Bayesian 4.7% 10.3% 4.3% 0.9% 0.5% 4.3% 5.2% 0.8% DTOPS 9.0% 55.0% 25.0% 9.0% 3.0% 19.0% 8.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Rafael at 11/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.9% 58.5% 47.1% 24.9% 17.8% 43.2% 45.5% 27.8% SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 62.3% 38.6% 26.0% 15.5% 43.1% 30.7% 23.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 61.3% 40.6% 25.7% 16.0% 43.1% 34.4% 24.6% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 61.2% 43.2% 25.4% 14.5% 43.9% 47.0% 46.3% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 19.3% 62.4% 42.4% 33.4% 17.9% 38.8% 29.5% 21.4% Bayesian 15.3% 63.2% 30.1% 19.3% 14.1% 46.6% 15.6% 3.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 11/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.8% 57.0% 43.7% 21.0% 21.8% 32.7% 35.7% 27.8% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 60.9% 33.5% 22.6% 12.5% 45.4% 39.7% 34.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 59.8% 36.0% 22.2% 14.8% 42.2% 38.6% 33.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 59.2% 41.6% 24.0% 10.9% 43.2% 49.5% 55.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.4% 37.5% 24.8% 12.0% 11.9% 18.8% 20.3% 18.4% Logistic Regression 15.3% 62.7% 40.1% 30.6% 18.7% 50.0% 45.2% 42.1% Bayesian 9.5% 60.6% 18.8% 13.2% 7.8% 42.9% 24.3% 7.2% DTOPS 6.0% 18.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 11/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 24.4% 5.5% 10.8% 2.6% 11.6% 15.8% 16.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 16.8% 7.3% 4.9% 2.9% 12.4% 18.2% 23.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 18.7% 6.8% 6.3% 2.8% 12.2% 17.6% 21.5% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 25.6% 12.2% 8.6% 5.8% 15.0% 21.2% 33.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 15.2% 3.7% 5.9% 1.8% 6.8% 9.4% 11.1% Logistic Regression 2.6% 22.8% 9.3% 5.8% 2.9% 21.1% 25.9% 33.0% Bayesian 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 7.7% 3.2% DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 11/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 28.4% 21.6% 7.6% 2.9% 12.4% 27.6% 12.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 12.3% 6.3% 4.0% 2.2% 9.3% 17.9% 16.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 16.3% 10.1% 4.8% 2.4% 10.0% 20.3% 15.4% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 17.6% 11.2% 7.7% 5.0% 12.8% 18.4% 26.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 25.2% 15.3% 5.3% 1.9% 16.2% 25.3% 9.2% Logistic Regression 3.1% 16.7% 7.0% 4.1% 1.5% 11.6% 28.6% 20.1% Bayesian 1.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 3.5% 6.9% 2.2% DTOPS 2.0% 22.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 20.0% 23.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 11/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 26.8% 15.4% 6.1% 3.1% 20.4% 20.5% 18.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 17.0% 7.8% 5.4% 2.7% 12.2% 22.0% 19.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 19.4% 9.6% 5.5% 2.8% 14.2% 21.6% 18.9% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 25.8% 12.3% 8.5% 5.5% 14.4% 24.8% 34.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 16.9% 8.7% 3.5% 1.5% 11.2% 10.7% 10.9% Logistic Regression 4.0% 22.3% 10.2% 7.4% 2.2% 16.5% 29.5% 17.7% Bayesian 3.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 5.7% 11.8% 4.2% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 11/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.5% 24.3% 22.6% 9.0% 6.1% 18.1% 24.7% 24.6% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 14.9% 9.6% 4.5% 2.8% 9.4% 18.1% 23.2% SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 16.6% 13.3% 5.5% 3.5% 13.5% 18.3% 18.8% Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------