Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nineteen intensity image current Nineteen RI diff image

 


Sara at 11/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 4.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.4% 2.5% 5.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 7.8% 4.8% 2.4% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 6.8% 3.8% 2.1% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.3% 13.0% 8.1% 5.4% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% Logistic Regression 2.2% 10.4% 6.1% 1.6% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 7.6% 6.3% 5.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 10.7% 6.5% 3.3% 0.6% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 9.9% 6.4% 3.9% 0.8% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.3% 13.7% 8.5% 5.7% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 4.3% 3.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 3.3% Logistic Regression 3.9% 17.8% 10.8% 4.1% 1.7% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 16.8% 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 8.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 9.9% 5.5% 3.0% 1.8% 5.5% 7.5% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 11.6% 4.9% 2.6% 1.5% 4.8% 5.8% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 14.2% 8.8% 6.0% 4.1% 10.6% 11.8% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 8.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 4.4% Logistic Regression 2.9% 14.8% 7.6% 2.8% 1.2% 5.9% 10.5% N/A
Bayesian 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 18.5% 8.2% 4.3% 0.8% 4.7% 1.3% 9.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 18.8% 8.9% 5.3% 3.7% 10.0% 13.6% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 18.7% 8.7% 5.0% 3.0% 8.6% 10.5% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.0% 16.4% 10.5% 7.6% 5.4% 11.8% 13.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 9.2% 4.1% 2.1% 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 4.7% Logistic Regression 6.5% 26.1% 13.3% 7.8% 5.6% 16.6% 26.1% N/A
Bayesian 1.7% 13.8% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 1.7% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 19.2% 5.3% 6.1% 1.1% 2.0% 5.8% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 9.8% 4.6% 2.7% 1.8% 5.2% 11.5% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 12.1% 4.7% 3.5% 1.6% 4.4% 10.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.5% 14.4% 9.0% 6.5% 4.6% 10.9% 12.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 9.6% 2.6% 3.0% 0.5% 1.0% 2.9% 2.7% Logistic Regression 2.6% 8.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.8% 4.3% 21.9% N/A
Bayesian 1.1% 6.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 35.4% 15.9% 6.9% 5.3% 4.7% 6.1% 9.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 12.4% 6.1% 3.3% 2.3% 5.7% 8.8% 16.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 18.1% 8.5% 4.2% 3.0% 5.4% 8.1% 14.9% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 16.9% 10.6% 7.5% 5.3% 11.6% 12.7% 22.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 17.7% 7.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.3% 3.0% 4.5% Logistic Regression 3.3% 15.7% 6.7% 2.5% 1.5% 5.1% 12.8% 27.4%
Bayesian 0.7% 4.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.7% 36.3% 20.4% 3.5% 2.4% 22.4% 4.3% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 14.7% 6.5% 3.4% 2.2% 5.8% 7.5% 12.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 20.1% 9.9% 3.4% 2.2% 9.9% 6.6% 10.5% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 23.1% 12.0% 8.4% 5.9% 12.7% 13.8% 25.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 18.6% 10.7% 1.7% 1.2% 11.2% 2.1% 2.6% Logistic Regression 2.9% 12.6% 5.3% 1.6% 0.6% 3.7% 6.9% 11.7%
Bayesian 1.0% 8.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.7% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.2% 37.0% 14.8% 15.7% 5.0% 8.1% 9.0% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 14.5% 6.0% 3.3% 2.3% 5.6% 7.1% 12.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 20.1% 8.2% 6.3% 2.9% 6.2% 7.5% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 27.4% 12.3% 8.5% 6.3% 13.2% 14.2% 27.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 19.0% 7.9% 8.3% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 2.1% Logistic Regression 2.4% 12.4% 4.8% 1.2% 0.5% 3.2% 6.8% 10.3%
Bayesian 0.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 32.8% 8.0% 6.0% 1.4% 20.8% 12.5% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 14.3% 5.9% 3.2% 2.3% 5.8% 9.6% 16.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 18.9% 6.4% 3.9% 2.0% 9.5% 10.3% 13.1% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 25.0% 12.0% 8.4% 6.1% 12.9% 15.8% 30.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 17.4% 4.5% 3.5% 1.2% 10.4% 6.2% 1.6% Logistic Regression 2.5% 14.9% 5.3% 1.3% 0.7% 4.1% 11.9% 16.3%
Bayesian 0.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 2.4%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.9% 38.5% 16.9% 20.3% 9.7% 19.0% 24.9% 14.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 26.5% 12.3% 5.0% 3.6% 9.8% 15.2% 19.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 29.5% 13.4% 8.8% 5.1% 12.1% 17.6% 18.0% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 38.7% 22.2% 9.6% 7.0% 19.2% 25.6% 35.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 21.7% 9.9% 11.1% 5.3% 9.5% 12.4% 7.1% Logistic Regression 5.1% 32.2% 13.3% 5.0% 3.1% 8.9% 17.9% 18.0%
Bayesian 1.5% 8.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 2.0% 4.8%
DTOPS 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.7% 54.8% 33.3% 19.3% 9.3% 30.9% 38.4% 18.7% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 35.9% 16.4% 7.7% 4.8% 15.3% 21.6% 25.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 40.6% 20.6% 10.6% 5.9% 19.2% 25.7% 23.8% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 45.3% 29.9% 14.4% 7.4% 29.1% 31.8% 45.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.8% 32.4% 19.1% 12.1% 5.1% 15.9% 19.2% 9.3% Logistic Regression 8.0% 30.4% 12.5% 4.3% 2.1% 8.5% 22.6% 25.2%
Bayesian 5.7% 32.0% 6.8% 4.4% 4.8% 8.5% 10.3% 5.8%
DTOPS 4.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.1% 53.6% 32.6% 37.6% 15.7% 44.4% 29.6% 16.3% SHIPS Consensus 18.0% 58.2% 33.1% 20.2% 14.3% 29.3% 35.4% 41.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.8% 57.0% 33.0% 24.5% 14.6% 33.0% 33.9% 35.0% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 55.7% 38.7% 23.0% 8.7% 38.5% 42.8% 55.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.0% 32.8% 19.3% 22.8% 8.8% 22.7% 14.8% 8.1% Logistic Regression 26.2% 61.9% 41.0% 22.0% 12.3% 25.7% 38.6% 51.2%
Bayesian 20.7% 56.9% 19.7% 15.5% 21.9% 23.7% 24.9% 17.3%
DTOPS 7.0% 12.0% 6.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 43.9% 61.0% 50.8% 38.4% 23.7% 47.4% 49.5% 21.6% SHIPS Consensus 14.9% 55.0% 31.0% 19.4% 11.3% 26.8% 28.8% 46.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.1% 56.5% 35.9% 24.1% 14.3% 31.9% 33.9% 40.5% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 52.1% 35.3% 22.0% 7.9% 32.4% 33.0% 55.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 23.9% 34.0% 26.9% 20.7% 12.3% 24.2% 24.7% 10.8% Logistic Regression 27.8% 63.8% 41.5% 25.0% 17.4% 32.7% 43.8% 56.4%
Bayesian 10.5% 49.1% 16.1% 11.2% 8.5% 15.3% 9.6% 28.5%
DTOPS 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Sara at 11/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.1% 58.3% 37.3% 41.9% 7.7% 28.0% 35.6% 43.9% SHIPS Consensus 10.4% 54.1% 31.8% 20.5% 12.5% 27.4% 28.8% 58.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.3% 55.1% 33.1% 25.8% 11.2% 27.5% 30.4% 55.1% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 48.4% 32.4% 17.7% 7.4% 27.9% 30.6% 54.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.5% 33.1% 20.1% 21.9% 4.3% 15.0% 18.3% 21.9% Logistic Regression 20.5% 67.3% 46.8% 35.5% 25.4% 42.4% 43.2% 76.0%
Bayesian 4.7% 46.7% 16.0% 8.2% 4.6% 12.0% 12.5% 45.6%
DTOPS 3.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 11/14/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.1% 51.9% 31.6% 13.9% 7.0% 33.4% 46.1% 45.7% SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 51.4% 27.1% 11.3% 7.1% 31.7% 44.5% 68.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 51.5% 28.2% 11.9% 7.1% 32.1% 44.9% 62.9% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 47.0% 30.3% 10.4% 6.9% 28.9% 38.6% 61.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.0% 30.9% 17.3% 7.9% 4.0% 17.2% 23.5% 22.8% Logistic Regression 16.3% 61.0% 36.1% 19.4% 12.3% 36.2% 54.0% 75.4%
Bayesian 4.4% 46.2% 14.9% 4.0% 2.2% 30.0% 41.0% 69.2%
DTOPS 3.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 11/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.8% 36.1% 21.8% 12.8% 3.0% 39.9% 27.8% 42.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 30.6% 12.0% 3.7% 2.2% 17.4% 49.3% 71.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 31.9% 14.4% 5.9% 2.4% 23.0% 43.9% 64.2% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 28.7% 12.4% 8.0% 5.0% 13.1% 29.6% 59.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 19.0% 11.4% 6.4% 1.5% 19.9% 13.9% 21.0% Logistic Regression 9.9% 35.8% 14.7% 2.4% 1.3% 15.0% 47.5% 72.9%
Bayesian 5.9% 27.3% 8.9% 0.7% 0.4% 24.3% 70.7% 82.6%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 11/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 31.0% 13.1% 6.9% 0.2% 14.5% 23.8% 31.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 23.0% 9.4% 3.5% 2.2% 12.3% 31.8% 64.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 25.0% 10.3% 4.3% 1.7% 12.8% 29.8% 56.2% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 20.0% 11.6% 7.6% 4.8% 12.4% 26.0% 57.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 18.5% 7.5% 3.9% 0.1% 7.7% 12.4% 15.7% Logistic Regression 6.2% 30.8% 12.7% 2.6% 1.4% 11.9% 37.5% 71.6%
Bayesian 2.9% 18.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.5% 12.6% 31.9% 64.6%
DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 11/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.7% 45.6% 39.5% 22.6% 10.2% 20.4% 14.9% 48.6% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 34.6% 16.7% 8.1% 3.1% 13.6% 27.7% 45.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 35.4% 20.9% 11.2% 4.6% 15.2% 24.6% 45.8% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 35.0% 18.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 10.4% 46.5% 26.8% 13.3% 8.6% 32.5% 45.9% 77.6%
Bayesian 1.1% 22.3% 4.5% 1.6% 0.7% 8.4% 16.3% 58.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 11/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.7% 42.6% 27.4% 17.2% 4.1% 29.7% 36.7% 48.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 33.9% 15.1% 5.7% 1.1% 12.8% 36.7% 53.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 36.1% 18.2% 8.6% 1.8% 17.0% 36.6% 51.9% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 35.1% 18.9% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 25.3% 14.7% 9.1% 2.5% 19.8% 23.3% 24.5% Logistic Regression 8.9% 33.5% 16.5% 5.2% 2.2% 18.4% 45.2% 80.4%
Bayesian 2.8% 33.2% 10.0% 2.9% 1.2% 20.1% 39.9% 79.3%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 10.0% 10.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------