Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Hone at 09/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 6.7% 4.9% 4.0% 3.3% 6.4% 5.6% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 9.6% 19.8% 14.3% 11.8% 9.8% 18.6% 16.3% 10.5% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 09/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 7.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.5% 7.3% 6.3% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 10.0% 21.9% 15.7% 12.7% 10.5% 21.3% 18.8% 12.9% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 09/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.0% 5.1% 4.2% 3.4% 7.1% 6.4% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 9.1% 21.0% 15.3% 12.5% 10.1% 21.1% 18.8% 12.8% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 09/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.8% 3.9% 3.2% 2.6% 5.6% 5.1% 3.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.0% 14.4% 11.7% 9.6% 7.8% 16.8% 14.7% 11.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/31/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.5% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 8.3% 19.4% 13.9% 11.2% 0.0% 19.4% 16.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/31/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/31/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 48.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/31/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 4.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 12.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 11.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/29/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/29/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 13.0% 7.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 10.5% 10.0% 8.5% 6.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 5.3% 4.8% 4.2% 3.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.9% 15.7% 14.3% 12.5% 9.8% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 77 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 5.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 7.4% 6.4% 5.6% 4.7% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.3% 6.9% 5.7% 4.5% 3.5% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 30.9% 21.0% 18.6% 16.4% 13.1% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.2% 3.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 4.3% 3.1% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 7.6% 6.3% 5.4% 4.6% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 6.7% 5.4% 4.2% 3.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.6% 21.1% 17.9% 15.7% 12.6% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 2.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 5.5% 3.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.3% 5.0% 4.2% 3.3% 5.5% 3.8% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.1% 4.7% 3.3% 2.6% 4.3% 2.8% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 18.8% 14.9% 12.5% 9.9% 16.4% 11.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 3.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.0% 2.9% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 7.8% 5.9% 4.9% 3.9% 6.5% 4.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.8% 5.1% 4.2% 3.2% 5.0% 3.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 22.2% 17.1% 14.4% 11.2% 19.3% 12.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 3.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 80 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 5.0% 4.4% 2.2% 1.5% 2.5% 0.4% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 8.9% 6.8% 5.6% 4.7% 7.4% 5.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 7.9% 6.1% 4.7% 3.8% 6.1% 3.8% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 23.3% 18.7% 16.1% 12.6% 21.8% 14.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.4% 6.5% 4.7% 3.6% 2.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 84 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 10.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 9.2% 6.7% 5.6% 4.6% 8.0% 5.9% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 9.6% 5.6% 4.3% 3.5% 6.3% 4.6% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 23.5% 18.6% 15.9% 12.5% 23.4% 17.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 11.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.8% 4.7% 1.5% 1.3% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.1% 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 4.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 6.7% 5.1% 4.3% 3.4% 6.5% 0.0% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.0% 4.3% 3.3% 2.6% 5.1% 0.0% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 11.0% 19.3% 15.2% 12.7% 10.0% 19.5% 0.0% 10.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 4.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.2% 5.4% 4.0% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 6.3% 4.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 5.6% 3.6% 2.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.4% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 18.4% 13.7% 11.1% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 5.3% 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 4.0% 3.2% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 2.9% 3.1% 4.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 7.4% 5.3% 4.3% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 6.6% 4.2% 3.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 19.8% 15.3% 12.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 6.3% 2.6% 1.6% 1.0% 3.4% 3.5% 6.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 4.1% 8.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.2% 5.4% 4.4% 3.5% 7.2% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 4.8% 1.1% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 20.0% 15.8% 13.1% 10.4% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 4.5% 12.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 11.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 15.0% 6.3% 1.7% 1.5% 4.5% 10.3% 11.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 8.6% 5.6% 4.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 10.2% 5.7% 3.6% 2.9% 1.3% 3.2% 3.0% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 21.4% 15.5% 12.5% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 13.5% 6.1% 2.8% 1.7% 4.7% 7.6% 9.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 2.6% 1.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hone at 08/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 14.4% 8.4% 3.4% 1.8% 12.1% 22.2% 10.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 8.6% 5.4% 4.2% 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 10.0% 6.1% 3.9% 3.0% 3.2% 5.8% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 18.3% 14.0% 11.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 9.7% 5.7% 2.7% 1.4% 7.0% 12.1% 8.9% Logistic Regression 1.5% 7.3% 2.2% 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------