Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current One intensity image current One RI diff image

 


Aletta at 07/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 33 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
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Aletta at 07/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 28 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Aletta at 07/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 21 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Aletta at 07/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 63 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Aletta at 07/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 6.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 2.1% 3.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Aletta at 07/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 3.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 7.4% 5.5% 3.7% 2.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 6.3% 4.3% 2.9% 2.1% 4.7% 0.1% 1.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.0% 12.3% 9.9% 7.5% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 2.2% Logistic Regression 3.6% 6.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 1.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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One at 07/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 7.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 7.8% 5.0% 3.3% 0.3% 5.0% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 7.7% 4.3% 2.6% 0.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 13.0% 10.0% 7.7% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.5% 10.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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