Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Bud intensity image current Bud RI diff image

 


Bud at 07/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Bud at 07/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 69 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.0% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.9% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 14.2% 9.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.1% 4.6% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.3% 3.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 7.9% 17.6% 13.3% 10.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 11.6% 6.1% 2.3% 0.3% 3.9% 1.1% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 6.9% 5.8% 4.4% 3.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 8.0% 5.8% 3.8% 2.7% 6.1% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 18.0% 15.0% 12.8% 10.4% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 5.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 8.7% 6.3% 2.1% 0.4% 4.8% 0.3% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 8.1% 6.8% 5.1% 4.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 8.2% 6.7% 4.3% 3.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 19.8% 17.0% 14.7% 11.9% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 4.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.9% 4.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 95 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 6.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 4.9% 2.4% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.9% 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% 6.0% 5.8% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.1% 4.4% 2.9% 2.2% 5.6% 4.9% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 14.8% 12.9% 10.9% 8.8% 17.7% 17.3% 13.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 5.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.3% 0.8% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.0% 4.7% 3.7% 3.0% 6.0% 5.8% 4.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.9% 4.1% 2.9% 2.2% 5.0% 4.5% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 15.6% 13.0% 10.9% 8.8% 17.6% 17.4% 13.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Bud at 07/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 10.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.2% 4.7% 0.7% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 6.6% 5.4% 4.3% 3.4% 6.6% 6.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 7.5% 4.9% 3.5% 2.5% 6.1% 4.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 16.6% 14.4% 12.3% 10.0% 19.6% 17.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 5.6% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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