Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Threee intensity image current Threee RI diff image

 


Carlotta at 08/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 31 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 27 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 31 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 16 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 19 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 35 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 28 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 46 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 43 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 4.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 70 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.8% 8.4% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 6.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 5.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.2% 10.4% 10.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 7.1% 5.5% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 7.9% 6.7% 4.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 19.6% 15.2% 12.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.1% 6.2% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 9.9% 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 7.9% 6.3% 5.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 8.3% 5.7% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 26.1% 22.3% 17.8% 15.5% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.4% 16.4% 9.0% 5.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 23.0% 14.0% 11.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 16.8% 7.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 11.3% 9.7% 7.2% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 11.4% 7.2% 4.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 32.3% 27.2% 20.1% 17.6% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.9% 22.4% 12.2% 7.4% 5.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 28.0% 17.0% 13.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 8.1% 9.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 15.3% 9.9% 7.2% 5.0% 7.4% 4.8% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 13.5% 9.8% 6.0% 3.9% 5.7% 3.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.5% 42.8% 28.0% 21.2% 14.8% 22.2% 14.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 21.5% 14.8% 7.7% 4.7% 4.9% 0.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 14.0% 35.0% 20.0% 13.0% 9.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.5% 36.1% 36.1% 20.9% 9.8% 6.6% 1.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 22.0% 13.2% 8.0% 5.4% 8.5% 5.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.1% 25.5% 18.9% 11.1% 6.4% 7.9% 4.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 15.2% 50.7% 32.0% 20.8% 14.5% 24.5% 16.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.7% 40.5% 32.0% 19.4% 10.9% 13.3% 5.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 8.2% 14.8% 7.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 45.0% 28.0% 18.0% 12.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.3% 37.2% 18.3% 8.9% 7.8% 10.7% 4.0% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 19.7% 12.6% 8.2% 5.2% 8.6% 5.8% 3.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 24.0% 14.0% 8.4% 5.8% 9.0% 5.3% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 46.6% 31.4% 21.4% 14.8% 25.0% 17.4% 10.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.1% 35.6% 19.6% 10.9% 8.4% 14.3% 5.0% 1.4% Logistic Regression 3.6% 12.3% 6.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 34.0% 21.0% 13.0% 9.0% 18.0% 6.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 40.1% 27.5% 10.5% 7.0% 16.6% 1.3% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 14.9% 8.5% 6.5% 4.7% 8.7% 6.3% 3.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 21.2% 13.2% 7.5% 5.3% 10.6% 5.0% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 32.0% 19.8% 16.8% 13.5% 25.3% 18.9% 11.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.1% 37.5% 23.7% 11.2% 7.5% 23.3% 6.6% 2.1% Logistic Regression 2.9% 12.3% 5.6% 2.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 35.0% 20.0% 12.0% 8.0% 30.0% 12.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.7% 40.1% 27.4% 21.0% 7.3% 20.6% 3.6% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 25.8% 16.8% 10.8% 5.7% 11.8% 7.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 29.3% 19.4% 13.3% 6.1% 14.0% 6.3% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 15.6% 48.9% 37.2% 24.4% 15.3% 31.9% 21.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.8% 37.5% 25.7% 19.5% 10.1% 18.8% 5.8% 3.0% Logistic Regression 5.9% 25.6% 12.4% 7.7% 1.8% 3.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 17.0% 35.0% 24.0% 18.0% 13.0% 17.0% 8.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 08/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.8% 45.5% 35.2% 17.9% 18.1% 30.6% 15.3% 8.5% SHIPS Consensus 13.5% 36.3% 22.9% 15.9% 7.7% 18.2% 14.2% 6.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 38.6% 26.0% 16.3% 10.2% 21.3% 14.4% 7.0% SHIPS-RII 23.2% 55.1% 41.4% 28.7% 17.8% 41.2% 40.8% 17.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.4% 40.7% 27.6% 16.4% 12.0% 30.3% 15.6% 9.7% Logistic Regression 14.5% 45.9% 24.7% 17.8% 5.0% 12.4% 1.5% 1.9%
Bayesian 2.8% 7.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 36.0% 20.0% 15.0% 6.0% 30.0% 16.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Carlotta at 07/31/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 37.7% 23.3% 14.4% 10.0% 18.1% 27.4% 15.4% SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 39.3% 22.0% 13.3% 6.7% 13.6% 15.0% 13.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.1% 38.8% 22.3% 13.6% 7.5% 14.7% 18.1% 13.9% SHIPS-RII 15.0% 50.0% 33.5% 20.9% 14.7% 29.7% 41.9% 37.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.8% 36.3% 21.6% 13.2% 7.0% 22.5% 24.2% 10.7% Logistic Regression 15.8% 48.7% 25.0% 16.3% 4.9% 9.0% 2.4% 2.4%
Bayesian 4.3% 19.1% 7.4% 2.9% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 35.0% 20.0% 12.0% 4.0% 27.0% 21.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Three at 07/31/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 27.3% 15.8% 7.2% 3.2% 12.2% 2.1% 16.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 10.2% 6.2% 4.7% 0.1% 7.6% 7.2% 10.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 14.5% 8.5% 5.3% 0.8% 8.7% 5.9% 11.8% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 21.5% 15.9% 13.1% 0.0% 21.6% 20.4% 28.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 18.6% 9.9% 4.6% 2.1% 8.6% 4.0% 10.3% Logistic Regression 0.9% 7.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------