Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Daniel intensity image current Daniel RI diff image

 


Daniel at 08/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
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Daniel at 08/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 5.1% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 3.5% 0.3% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 6.8% 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.4% 4.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 18.9% 13.8% 11.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 10.5% 11.6% 5.8% 2.5% 8.2% 1.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 8.5% 6.0% 4.1% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 9.8% 7.8% 4.6% 3.0% 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 19.0% 13.9% 11.0% 8.5% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 6.2% 6.3% 3.4% 1.2% 4.1% 0.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.7% 6.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 9.4% 3.9% 1.6% 0.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.8% 5.3% 3.6% 2.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 7.4% 4.9% 3.1% 2.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 15.7% 12.5% 10.2% 7.9% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 5.7% 2.4% 1.3% 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.7% 4.8% 3.7% 2.9% 5.8% 5.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.1% 3.8% 2.8% 2.1% 4.4% 3.8% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 18.8% 13.4% 11.0% 8.6% 17.4% 15.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 5.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.7% 3.9% 0.5% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 9.5% 6.7% 4.2% 3.4% 6.2% 5.2% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 8.4% 5.8% 3.5% 2.6% 5.6% 3.9% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 20.2% 14.4% 11.7% 9.1% 18.4% 15.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.7% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.9% 5.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 6.6% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 5.3% 4.9% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 5.4% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 4.8% 3.6% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 14.7% 11.6% 9.6% 7.6% 15.8% 14.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 18.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Daniel at 08/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.9% 4.5% 3.6% 2.9% 5.6% 5.1% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.2% 4.6% 3.9% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 16.6% 12.8% 10.9% 8.6% 16.7% 15.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
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