Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Emilia at 08/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 13 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 53 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 51 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.0% 16.9% 4.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 7.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 9.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.3% 19.6% 15.3% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.0% 8.9% 2.0% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.4% 4.8% 3.9% 2.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 5.3% 3.8% 3.0% 2.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 16.8% 13.6% 11.2% 8.6% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 16.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 9.4% 5.7% 4.5% 3.3% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 11.1% 5.1% 3.6% 2.6% 4.7% 3.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 23.0% 16.1% 13.0% 9.8% 18.2% 12.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 9.1% 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 4.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 15.4% 2.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 10.9% 6.2% 5.0% 3.7% 6.0% 4.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 12.0% 5.2% 4.0% 3.0% 4.6% 3.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 24.8% 17.2% 14.1% 10.8% 17.7% 12.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 12.7% 4.2% 3.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 7.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.8% 20.1% 4.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 25.1% 11.3% 7.5% 5.4% 7.9% 5.5% 2.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 23.8% 9.6% 6.0% 4.4% 6.4% 4.4% 2.0% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 49.4% 27.9% 17.5% 13.5% 22.7% 16.3% 7.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.9% 20.5% 8.7% 5.9% 4.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 9.9% 24.0% 6.1% 4.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 3.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 18.0% 21.0% 13.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 4.9% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 8.3% 6.3% 5.3% 4.2% 6.8% 4.5% 2.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 7.4% 4.8% 4.3% 3.5% 5.5% 3.5% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 22.5% 18.1% 15.7% 12.6% 20.3% 13.5% 6.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.9% 7.4% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 3.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.8% 5.4% 4.6% 3.8% 6.9% 5.7% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.9% 4.1% 3.6% 3.0% 5.4% 4.8% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 19.6% 16.0% 13.8% 11.5% 20.6% 17.0% 9.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.9% 6.7% 3.2% 2.8% 1.7% 3.0% 2.1% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.5% 2.0% 4.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.7% 5.7% 4.8% 3.8% 8.0% 6.9% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.6% 4.5% 3.6% 2.8% 6.4% 5.6% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 10.5% 22.2% 17.1% 14.3% 11.3% 24.0% 19.8% 12.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 7.2% 3.3% 2.1% 1.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 8.5% 2.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 2.8% 4.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 6.7% 5.2% 4.4% 3.6% 7.3% 6.6% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.1% 4.5% 3.5% 2.9% 5.6% 5.6% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 18.6% 15.2% 13.0% 10.8% 21.6% 19.1% 12.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 8.2% 3.8% 2.0% 1.5% 2.4% 2.9% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.8% 40.7% 18.8% 12.4% 3.6% 12.7% 4.8% 12.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 10.0% 6.6% 5.2% 4.2% 8.7% 9.4% 16.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 17.6% 9.6% 7.0% 4.0% 9.6% 8.2% 15.4% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 23.6% 17.9% 15.0% 12.4% 24.8% 24.3% 42.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.4% 30.8% 14.9% 8.2% 2.8% 9.3% 5.9% 6.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 3.9% 2.9% Bayesian 0.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.0% DTOPS 4.0% 21.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Emilia at 08/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.6% 1.8% 9.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 9.2% 6.5% 5.3% 4.4% 8.5% 9.6% 19.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 7.5% 4.8% 3.6% 0.1% 6.2% 6.5% 16.8% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 24.0% 18.5% 15.6% 13.0% 25.1% 25.6% 52.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 15.4% 8.0% 2.8% 1.1% 4.8% 8.4% 5.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 3.2% 2.7% Bayesian 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% DTOPS 6.0% 33.0% 22.0% 10.0% 6.0% 22.0% 17.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 08/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 19.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.8% 3.6% 2.5% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 11.2% 6.9% 5.5% 0.2% 8.9% 11.5% 22.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 12.8% 6.0% 4.3% 0.3% 7.4% 8.3% 17.6% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 24.4% 18.3% 15.2% 0.0% 24.6% 25.2% 54.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 23.3% 10.0% 4.1% 2.4% 6.3% 4.2% 6.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 7.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 9.0% 8.0% Bayesian 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 4.7% DTOPS 2.0% 28.0% 17.0% 8.0% 4.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 08/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 21.8% 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% 4.4% 2.7% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 9.0% 6.2% 4.9% 0.1% 8.0% 7.2% 0.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 12.2% 6.0% 4.4% 0.7% 7.1% 6.1% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 19.8% 16.1% 13.6% 0.0% 22.4% 18.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 16.4% 5.8% 3.0% 1.8% 4.7% 3.3% 2.9% Logistic Regression 1.4% 6.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 3.3% 1.6% Bayesian 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------