Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Six intensity image current Six RI diff image

 


Fabio at 08/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 44 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 5.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 49 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 52 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 57 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 26.9% 15.5% 4.5% 3.4% 5.1% 0.8% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 24.1% 15.9% 10.0% 5.8% 9.4% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 24.8% 15.8% 8.6% 5.2% 8.2% 0.3% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 15.6% 50.4% 38.2% 24.0% 14.8% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 18.4% 11.2% 5.2% 3.7% 3.0% 0.4% 0.6% Logistic Regression 5.7% 20.0% 8.9% 5.8% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Bayesian 1.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.0% 27.3% 16.8% 5.5% 2.8% 10.8% 2.2% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 19.0% 13.1% 8.8% 5.5% 10.6% 7.4% 4.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 21.0% 13.9% 8.0% 4.8% 10.6% 6.1% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 14.4% 34.7% 28.1% 20.0% 14.2% 28.3% 20.7% 12.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.5% 23.1% 15.4% 9.2% 5.9% 7.9% 1.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 5.8% 18.4% 9.0% 5.5% 1.8% 3.1% 1.5% 1.1%
Bayesian 5.8% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 19.0% 14.0% 13.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.0% 38.6% 12.0% 6.8% 7.1% 10.5% 1.6% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 28.1% 15.1% 9.9% 5.6% 11.4% 11.1% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 30.7% 14.3% 9.1% 6.0% 11.1% 8.7% 5.0% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 44.8% 26.8% 17.5% 13.7% 28.1% 31.0% 16.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.5% 27.3% 11.0% 7.9% 6.5% 6.7% 1.8% 1.1% Logistic Regression 8.8% 30.6% 14.3% 9.3% 2.9% 5.4% 2.2% 1.6%
Bayesian 3.3% 8.8% 4.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 16.0% 10.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0%
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Fabio at 08/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.3% 20.2% 10.4% 6.0% 6.9% 15.4% 5.5% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 11.4% 6.7% 4.9% 3.4% 8.6% 7.0% 5.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 13.5% 7.6% 5.1% 4.2% 10.3% 6.6% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 21.3% 15.3% 12.4% 9.7% 22.2% 19.6% 16.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 14.1% 7.2% 4.0% 3.9% 9.7% 4.2% 2.8% Logistic Regression 1.5% 11.9% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 3.5% 1.3% 1.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
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Six at 08/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 18.0% 3.3% 5.9% 1.0% 9.2% 4.8% 17.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 10.5% 6.1% 4.6% 3.4% 8.9% 8.9% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 12.3% 5.4% 4.9% 2.8% 8.9% 7.8% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 20.1% 15.1% 12.4% 9.7% 22.6% 20.1% 14.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 12.5% 3.1% 3.9% 1.0% 7.1% 6.4% 9.3% Logistic Regression 1.2% 8.7% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3.6% 6.3% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 8.0% 1.0%
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