Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Hector intensity image current Hector RI diff image

 


Hector at 08/29/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hector at 08/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 69 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hector at 08/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 69 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 83 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 8.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 4.7% 0.8% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 6.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hector at 08/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 7.9% 7.6% 7.7% 1.6% 3.0% 0.7% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 6.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 6.8% 2.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 5.4% 4.8% 4.8% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.9% 9.2% 5.0% 3.1% 0.8% 6.5% 2.5% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 5.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 6.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 7.1% 4.0% 3.0% 1.4% 3.7% 1.7% 1.4% Logistic Regression 1.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 13.5% 4.2% 1.6% 1.0% 7.4% 4.9% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 6.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 8.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 9.2% 3.6% 1.8% 1.0% 4.7% 2.9% 1.3% Logistic Regression 1.8% 5.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 100 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 12.9% 5.9% 5.6% 2.6% 4.1% 2.3% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 8.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 9.4% 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 8.9% 3.9% 3.8% 1.8% 3.0% 2.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 2.4% 8.4% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hector at 08/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 12.0% 5.9% 2.5% 0.7% 2.4% 1.0% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 15.7% 4.2% 3.2% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 14.7% 4.5% 3.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 9.0% 4.9% 2.7% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% Logistic Regression 11.9% 23.9% 12.4% 9.5% 3.2% 4.2% 2.1% 1.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0%
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Hector at 08/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 10.5% 6.1% 2.0% 2.1% 5.3% 4.8% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 13.9% 9.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 13.0% 8.4% 5.8% 3.6% 2.5% 2.0% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 12.1% 20.1% 15.8% 13.2% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 7.7% 5.0% 2.5% 2.0% 3.6% 3.4% 1.3% Logistic Regression 7.9% 21.0% 11.9% 8.1% 1.8% 4.9% 3.5% 1.0%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
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