Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Ileana at 09/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Ileana at 09/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 186 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/14/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 186 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 7.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.5% 4.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 20.8% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 6.4% 10.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 10.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 11.0% 6.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 9.8% 7.4% 4.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 29.5% 17.4% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 3.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 5.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Ileana at 09/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.7% 13.4% 11.5% 3.7% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 16.6% 9.4% 5.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 15.8% 9.9% 5.3% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 38.7% 19.0% 15.9% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 7.7% 6.2% 2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 2.1% Logistic Regression 11.2% 10.9% 9.1% 1.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 11.8% 6.2% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 10.1% 7.5% 5.6% 4.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 10.5% 7.1% 4.9% 3.7% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.2% 23.9% 18.2% 15.7% 12.9% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 6.4% 3.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 3.6% 6.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.1% 31.8% 24.7% 17.5% 9.7% 10.8% 3.6% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 20.4% 12.1% 7.1% 5.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 23.2% 15.2% 9.6% 6.6% 8.8% 0.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 36.8% 22.5% 17.4% 14.0% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.5% 16.4% 12.8% 9.2% 4.8% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5% Logistic Regression 12.0% 21.8% 13.7% 3.8% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.3% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ileana at 09/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 24.7% 24.5% 7.1% 2.9% 9.3% 8.6% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 10.5% 6.9% 5.2% 4.2% 7.7% 6.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 14.0% 11.3% 5.6% 3.9% 8.0% 6.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 10.9% 22.5% 17.6% 15.0% 12.3% 22.7% 17.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 13.8% 13.7% 4.5% 1.9% 5.1% 4.8% 0.7% Logistic Regression 2.6% 6.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 09/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 4.8% 5.4% 2.2% 1.0% 4.3% 3.3% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 9.5% 5.7% 4.1% 0.2% 7.1% 6.3% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 8.3% 5.6% 3.6% 0.3% 6.4% 5.5% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 17.9% 13.7% 11.3% 0.0% 20.4% 18.4% 15.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 2.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% Logistic Regression 2.2% 9.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
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