Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     John at 09/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 13.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 19.6% 14.6% 11.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 169 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 6.7% 5.1% 4.2% 3.5% 6.6% 5.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.8% 19.5% 15.0% 12.6% 10.6% 19.8% 15.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 31.3% 16.6% 15.5% 10.7% 8.6% 2.0% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 8.5% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 7.3% 5.8% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 14.2% 8.8% 7.8% 6.0% 7.6% 4.8% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 10.9% 24.0% 18.3% 15.7% 13.4% 22.0% 17.5% 12.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 15.6% 8.3% 7.7% 5.3% 4.3% 1.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 12.2% 7.2% 4.4% 4.1% 1.8% 2.9% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 8.9% 6.6% 5.6% 4.7% 7.5% 5.6% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 9.7% 6.7% 5.3% 4.5% 6.0% 4.9% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 14.4% 23.9% 18.9% 16.5% 13.9% 22.3% 16.8% 12.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 6.1% 3.6% 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 175 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 31.8% 20.0% 12.3% 6.4% 6.2% 1.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 14.0% 27.7% 19.1% 13.9% 9.1% 10.8% 7.2% 5.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.0% 28.7% 19.3% 13.5% 8.4% 9.6% 5.7% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 30.6% 50.6% 42.6% 34.0% 24.7% 29.2% 20.9% 16.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.6% 15.9% 10.0% 6.1% 3.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% Logistic Regression 7.0% 18.6% 9.4% 5.5% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 4.4% 14.0% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 175 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.2% 52.7% 32.8% 23.3% 17.0% 15.8% 2.4% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 28.3% 49.8% 38.6% 32.6% 24.1% 16.7% 9.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 27.7% 50.5% 37.1% 30.2% 22.3% 16.4% 7.3% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 47.1% 75.4% 67.6% 64.1% 50.3% 39.2% 25.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.1% 31.3% 20.9% 18.1% 14.0% 7.9% 1.2% 0.4% Logistic Regression 22.6% 40.4% 21.4% 15.5% 9.2% 5.3% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian 15.1% 33.7% 26.7% 18.1% 12.9% 5.4% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 20.0% 10.0% 9.0% 13.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 172 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.9% 39.1% 36.5% 41.3% 36.1% 27.5% 5.3% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 50.5% 69.9% 63.3% 56.0% 36.4% 39.4% 22.2% 17.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 47.6% 62.1% 56.5% 52.3% 36.3% 36.4% 17.9% 13.2% SHIPS-RII 58.8% 92.8% 91.3% 91.2% 71.0% 80.3% 56.4% 49.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 34.9% 34.0% 28.7% 32.1% 23.0% 14.2% 2.6% 0.4% Logistic Regression 36.4% 58.6% 41.8% 33.0% 18.4% 27.2% 6.9% 1.8% Bayesian 56.4% 58.3% 56.8% 43.7% 19.8% 10.7% 3.3% 1.0% DTOPS 31.0% 29.0% 21.0% 23.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 172 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 41.8% 31.2% 18.1% 9.5% 37.6% 13.8% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 22.3% 48.0% 43.5% 33.8% 18.0% 32.4% 29.2% 28.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.0% 46.4% 40.4% 29.8% 15.8% 33.7% 25.3% 22.2% SHIPS-RII 31.9% 74.9% 69.8% 63.6% 47.2% 72.5% 66.2% 53.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.1% 23.4% 17.1% 10.5% 5.2% 18.8% 6.9% 1.9% Logistic Regression 10.5% 30.9% 16.9% 10.5% 4.6% 18.8% 17.5% 4.7% Bayesian 24.4% 38.3% 43.9% 27.3% 2.2% 6.0% 3.8% 26.7% DTOPS 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 09/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 179 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.0% 36.7% 19.2% 18.1% 5.6% 32.4% 8.0% 9.8% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 38.3% 27.4% 18.5% 10.8% 30.1% 26.0% 21.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 37.9% 25.3% 18.4% 9.5% 30.6% 21.5% 18.2% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 59.0% 45.7% 35.3% 24.8% 46.1% 46.7% 53.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 23.8% 13.1% 11.0% 3.8% 16.7% 4.0% 4.9% Logistic Regression 6.5% 41.6% 21.3% 15.4% 7.0% 36.2% 28.5% 2.3% Bayesian 2.4% 14.3% 15.2% 4.8% 0.6% 7.9% 2.8% 6.9% DTOPS 3.0% 11.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 175 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 3.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 14.7% 13.1% 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 1.7% 32.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 11.3% 10.3% 7.3% 2.9% 2.9% 1.3% 25.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 1.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 43.5% 39.2% 28.6% 11.5% 11.4% 4.7% 96.8% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 63.7% 63.3% 60.2% 40.0% 48.0% 4.7% 0.8% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 14.4% 34.8% 21.6% 15.5% 6.6% 12.8% 6.4% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.7% 41.9% 31.2% 21.6% 16.9% 10.8% 5.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 16.1% 35.1% 24.0% 18.1% 15.3% 22.7% 16.7% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 31.8% 31.6% 30.1% 20.0% 24.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% Logistic Regression 14.1% 35.4% 21.8% 16.0% 2.7% 9.7% 1.7% N/A Bayesian 13.0% 33.8% 18.9% 12.6% 1.8% 6.1% 0.8% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 50.8% 51.5% 32.4% 17.6% 26.7% 14.0% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 65.8% 55.9% 58.6% 59.0% 28.5% 31.0% 6.2% 0.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 62.0% 54.8% 52.0% 48.6% 28.0% 26.7% 4.8% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 80.7% 64.8% 62.9% 60.6% 51.1% 33.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 25.4% 25.7% 16.2% 8.8% 13.3% 7.0% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 75.9% 78.8% 74.8% 75.7% 29.4% 59.6% 18.7% 1.3% Bayesian 40.8% 24.1% 38.2% 40.7% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 172 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 61.0% 62.2% 58.3% 51.1% 50.7% 26.9% 6.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 73.9% 75.0% 76.7% 76.1% 35.8% 47.1% 19.8% 5.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 70.6% 71.8% 72.0% 69.8% 39.5% 42.0% 16.3% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 86.2% 79.5% 77.0% 76.0% 55.5% 52.1% 19.9% 12.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 72.5% 33.6% 31.6% 29.5% 28.8% 13.4% 3.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 84.7% 90.3% 87.6% 87.3% 40.6% 85.7% 39.4% 5.8% Bayesian 50.8% 55.3% 65.3% 64.8% 11.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 84.0% 5.0% 5.0% 8.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 177 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 45.1% 67.3% 54.1% 56.8% 49.3% 56.3% 29.4% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 64.2% 84.3% 81.9% 80.8% 35.1% 74.1% 39.8% 17.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 59.4% 80.0% 74.9% 74.7% 38.6% 69.7% 37.2% 13.7% SHIPS-RII 59.1% 86.8% 85.8% 83.8% 64.2% 78.6% 61.2% 41.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 38.0% 42.6% 34.5% 42.4% 33.6% 28.6% 14.7% 1.4% Logistic Regression 64.9% 87.6% 81.6% 80.4% 28.7% 86.1% 47.3% 9.7% Bayesian 68.5% 78.5% 78.4% 78.1% 12.5% 57.8% 10.9% 1.3% DTOPS 31.0% 18.0% 15.0% 28.0% 18.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   John at 09/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 175 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 34.3% 62.2% 58.4% 51.9% 30.3% 48.6% 50.0% 27.9% SHIPS Consensus 22.0% 68.9% 59.0% 45.5% 10.2% 61.0% 50.5% 30.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 25.0% 67.2% 58.8% 47.0% 15.2% 57.9% 50.3% 29.7% SHIPS-RII 14.8% 54.9% 40.5% 27.0% 16.5% 51.7% 68.8% 53.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 21.1% 37.1% 33.2% 28.9% 16.6% 26.8% 26.0% 14.4% Logistic Regression 32.7% 79.0% 65.1% 59.3% 10.8% 73.7% 41.8% 13.5% Bayesian 18.4% 72.8% 71.3% 50.1% 3.4% 57.6% 40.9% 24.2% DTOPS 8.0% 12.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 09/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.3% 43.0% 39.5% 32.8% 14.7% 32.6% 49.7% 47.7% SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 56.1% 44.0% 30.9% 3.3% 50.9% 54.1% 35.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.6% 52.8% 42.8% 31.4% 6.1% 46.3% 52.9% 38.7% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 44.6% 24.9% 17.2% 0.0% 34.9% 62.3% 53.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.1% 27.0% 22.2% 17.4% 7.8% 17.3% 25.8% 25.3% Logistic Regression 25.8% 74.9% 60.9% 52.6% 9.0% 76.7% 56.9% 26.7% Bayesian 3.5% 48.7% 46.1% 23.0% 1.0% 41.2% 43.0% 27.2% DTOPS 2.0% 11.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 09/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 172 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.6% 34.4% 31.2% 26.5% 8.0% 21.4% 46.8% 49.5% SHIPS Consensus 13.1% 54.0% 38.8% 26.3% 3.4% 45.1% 53.9% 39.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.4% 49.1% 36.9% 26.3% 4.5% 39.1% 52.1% 41.7% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 36.2% 19.7% 16.3% 0.0% 28.0% 55.9% 53.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.3% 22.7% 18.6% 14.7% 4.5% 12.7% 25.4% 26.2% Logistic Regression 22.8% 68.3% 53.3% 41.4% 8.4% 64.9% 63.7% 35.2% Bayesian 4.4% 57.6% 43.4% 21.3% 1.8% 42.4% 42.1% 28.9% DTOPS 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------