Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eleven intensity image current Eleven RI diff image

 


Eleven at 10/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 8.6% 3.9% 7.0% 4.2% 4.8% 3.0% 12.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 18.2% 8.3% 6.0% 3.7% 11.1% 10.3% 13.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 15.8% 7.2% 6.2% 3.8% 9.5% 8.4% 13.0% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 24.2% 16.6% 13.4% 10.2% 22.6% 20.3% 31.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 4.8% 1.9% 3.5% 2.1% 2.4% 1.5% 6.9% Logistic Regression 4.1% 21.2% 5.7% 3.8% 0.8% 8.3% 8.9% 6.7%
Bayesian 1.0% 9.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0% 2.4% 1.7% 0.9%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Eleven at 10/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 180 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 11.0% 4.4% 6.5% 3.0% 4.0% 3.9% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 15.9% 7.1% 5.2% 0.2% 9.6% 9.3% 2.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 14.6% 6.4% 5.5% 0.9% 8.2% 7.9% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 22.8% 15.3% 12.0% 0.0% 20.6% 18.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 5.5% 2.2% 3.2% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 5.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 21.6% 5.3% 3.5% 0.6% 8.0% 8.8% 7.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eleven at 10/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 3.8% 1.7% 2.9% 1.2% 3.8% 1.3% 6.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 11.0% 5.4% 4.1% 0.1% 7.5% 2.5% 2.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 9.2% 4.4% 3.7% 0.3% 6.5% 2.2% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 20.4% 13.7% 10.7% 0.0% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 1.9% 0.6% 3.9% Logistic Regression 1.2% 11.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.2% 3.8% 7.5% 6.6%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Eleven at 10/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 2.0% 3.8% 12.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 10.2% 5.4% 4.2% 0.1% 7.5% 9.8% 19.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 8.2% 4.2% 3.4% 0.2% 6.1% 8.2% 17.7% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 21.8% 14.9% 11.8% 0.0% 19.8% 19.3% 47.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 6.8% Logistic Regression 0.5% 7.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 10.1% 10.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Eleven at 10/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 2.5% 10.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 2.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 4.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 1.2% 5.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 5.3% 7.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eleven at 10/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 177 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 4.1% 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 2.7% 1.0% 10.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.7% 4.9% 4.0% 0.1% 7.0% 1.9% 1.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.8% 4.0% 3.4% 0.1% 5.9% 1.7% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 19.2% 14.2% 11.5% 0.0% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 4.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 5.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 5.8% 4.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Eleven at 10/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 175 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 12.3% 3.7% 4.0% 1.3% 3.6% 1.2% 5.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.4% 5.6% 4.6% 0.0% 8.4% 12.8% 20.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 9.3% 5.1% 4.4% 0.3% 7.2% 9.9% 17.0% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 22.8% 16.5% 13.5% 0.0% 23.2% 22.0% 54.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 7.6% 2.3% 2.5% 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% 2.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 16.5% 6.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eleven at 10/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 10.7% 6.7% 5.4% 0.1% 10.3% 15.1% 21.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 8.3% 5.1% 4.0% 0.0% 7.9% 11.4% 17.1% SHIPS-RII 11.3% 28.1% 18.6% 15.4% 0.0% 26.8% 32.8% 53.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 4.1% 12.4% 5.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 4.9%
DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0%
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Eleven at 10/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 172 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 4.8% 9.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 8.3% 6.1% 5.0% 0.1% 8.5% 10.1% 8.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 7.0% 4.7% 3.8% 0.1% 6.5% 8.7% 8.7% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 20.8% 16.8% 14.2% 0.0% 23.1% 19.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 2.4% 5.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.3% 10.5% 4.9%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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