Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Kristy intensity image current Kristy RI diff image

 


Kristy at 10/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 32 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 32 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 34 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 39 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 43 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 47 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 61 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 63 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 108 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.4% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.0% 4.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.4% 7.9% 3.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.4% 6.9% 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 21.7% 13.8% 10.8% 12.1% 6.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.0% 10.4% 8.1% 9.1% 4.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 64.0% 41.3% 32.4% 36.3% 18.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 24.6% 16.7% 14.0% 16.0% 7.7% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.6% 12.8% 10.7% 12.0% 5.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 73.4% 50.0% 41.9% 47.9% 23.1% 7.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Kristy at 10/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.9% 23.5% 11.0% 11.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 38.7% 23.7% 17.9% 17.7% 10.0% 3.8% 0.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 39.5% 23.6% 16.1% 16.0% 8.4% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 50.4% 21.9% 19.5% 17.1% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 34.4% 15.2% 7.5% 6.6% 2.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 55.1% 46.8% 34.0% 35.8% 16.1% 11.4% 1.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 10.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 27.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.9% 40.5% 30.2% 16.8% 14.5% 8.5% 1.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 23.9% 27.7% 14.5% 11.9% 7.5% 10.8% 6.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.4% 30.8% 18.4% 13.1% 9.2% 10.2% 4.9% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 39.3% 25.2% 22.7% 18.4% 14.6% 22.5% 15.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 47.9% 46.2% 32.6% 24.9% 16.7% 11.7% 1.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 22.9% 35.9% 18.2% 16.4% 7.1% 9.4% 2.8% 0.3%
Bayesian 9.6% 21.9% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 62.0% 52.0% 35.0% 33.0% 19.0% 15.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Kristy at 10/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 50.0% 56.5% 42.9% 20.3% 23.2% 20.7% 5.8% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 48.8% 57.1% 35.9% 30.9% 16.8% 20.2% 8.7% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 49.1% 56.9% 37.6% 28.2% 18.3% 20.3% 7.9% 3.0% SHIPS-RII 57.3% 50.2% 44.4% 36.8% 23.6% 27.0% 18.9% 10.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 58.5% 49.2% 35.9% 24.6% 19.1% 13.8% 3.9% 0.2% Logistic Regression 56.7% 70.0% 51.1% 48.8% 24.9% 30.5% 7.0% 1.3%
Bayesian 32.5% 51.1% 12.0% 7.2% 1.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 67.0% 42.0% 29.0% 29.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 49.8% 69.7% 65.9% 48.4% 34.6% 45.5% 25.8% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 42.9% 63.1% 34.8% 28.4% 25.1% 19.7% 9.4% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 44.6% 64.7% 42.5% 33.4% 27.5% 26.1% 13.5% 5.1% SHIPS-RII 45.0% 56.5% 45.3% 37.6% 26.4% 27.6% 20.1% 12.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 47.9% 59.8% 52.4% 45.2% 32.3% 30.2% 18.4% 6.9% Logistic Regression 60.2% 71.4% 47.0% 41.2% 28.0% 25.5% 7.2% 3.4%
Bayesian 23.5% 61.3% 12.0% 6.5% 21.1% 5.9% 0.9% 0.0%
DTOPS 46.0% 50.0% 39.0% 42.0% 30.0% 15.0% 11.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 30.6% 54.2% 58.3% 34.3% 31.2% 43.6% 19.1% 5.9% SHIPS Consensus 15.1% 42.8% 24.9% 16.7% 11.4% 16.4% 11.5% 6.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.0% 45.6% 33.2% 21.0% 16.3% 23.2% 13.4% 6.0% SHIPS-RII 24.8% 55.4% 43.2% 32.1% 22.1% 33.8% 25.9% 14.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 28.3% 54.1% 49.6% 34.1% 25.6% 36.3% 27.0% 33.4% Logistic Regression 16.6% 43.2% 24.9% 16.0% 8.6% 13.0% 7.4% 3.9%
Bayesian 4.0% 29.9% 6.7% 1.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 54.0% 41.0% 34.0% 20.0% 29.0% 35.0% 61.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.7% 39.4% 24.4% 13.7% 10.8% 29.5% 9.3% 27.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 31.6% 21.2% 13.8% 9.4% 16.0% 13.9% 8.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 33.5% 21.9% 13.7% 9.7% 19.3% 12.7% 12.8% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 48.4% 41.5% 30.8% 22.2% 34.0% 29.9% 18.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 46.2% 32.2% 22.8% 14.4% 34.2% 18.1% 29.5% Logistic Regression 5.8% 30.0% 16.3% 9.2% 5.4% 12.0% 10.2% 5.7%
Bayesian 2.4% 16.3% 5.7% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1%
DTOPS 15.0% 53.0% 40.0% 32.0% 18.0% 39.0% 27.0% 32.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kristy at 10/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 41.9% 24.2% 21.5% 12.4% 19.5% 11.3% 33.9% SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 37.6% 23.7% 16.8% 12.3% 23.4% 29.6% 23.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 38.6% 23.8% 17.9% 12.2% 22.4% 25.0% 26.0% SHIPS-RII 22.1% 64.1% 46.7% 36.0% 25.2% 46.3% 53.1% 48.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.9% 46.4% 33.6% 25.2% 12.2% 29.7% 16.6% 31.9% Logistic Regression 7.1% 36.0% 18.0% 12.4% 9.3% 20.3% 34.8% 21.2%
Bayesian 0.3% 12.7% 6.4% 2.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3%
DTOPS 15.0% 51.0% 43.0% 29.0% 12.0% 40.0% 22.0% 30.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Kristy at 10/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 30.3% 20.0% 13.1% 4.7% 25.0% 21.0% 31.7% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 29.6% 15.2% 9.8% 7.3% 15.6% 17.0% 19.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 29.8% 16.4% 10.6% 6.6% 17.9% 17.9% 22.4% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 37.2% 21.5% 17.1% 14.4% 27.7% 28.5% 40.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 31.1% 21.0% 12.0% 5.3% 25.0% 22.0% 22.3% Logistic Regression 4.9% 31.1% 14.1% 8.6% 6.2% 14.4% 19.5% 17.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 20.6% 10.0% 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 2.9% 0.4%
DTOPS 4.0% 32.0% 22.0% 11.0% 6.0% 25.0% 23.0% 13.0%
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