Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Lane at 11/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 3.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.3% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 9.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Lane at 11/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.6% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 2.8% 3.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 2.1% 2.4% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 10.6% 7.1% 4.7% 0.0% 8.4% 9.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Lane at 11/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.7% 3.5% 2.7% 1.9% 4.2% 3.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.8% 2.8% 2.0% 1.4% 3.1% 2.6% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 13.6% 10.3% 8.0% 5.6% 12.5% 10.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lane at 11/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 6.3% 4.4% 3.2% 2.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.6% 1.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 16.1% 12.0% 9.5% 6.8% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lane at 11/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 18.0% 11.9% 8.1% 3.6% 5.9% 0.6% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 10.9% 7.2% 4.1% 2.9% 5.8% 4.6% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 12.7% 8.3% 5.1% 3.0% 5.8% 3.6% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 17.9% 13.3% 10.7% 7.7% 17.2% 13.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 9.5% 6.4% 4.5% 2.3% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.0% 13.1% 8.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lane at 11/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 108 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 8.1% 3.5% 2.1% 0.7% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 9.8% 6.4% 3.4% 2.4% 5.1% 4.5% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 9.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.9% 4.3% 3.7% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 15.8% 11.5% 9.0% 6.5% 15.1% 13.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 4.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 13.1% 7.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 11/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.4% 19.7% 9.6% 5.3% 2.9% 8.6% 1.6% 10.8% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 22.1% 15.1% 6.3% 0.7% 5.8% 5.1% 1.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 21.5% 13.7% 6.0% 1.2% 6.5% 4.2% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 18.4% 12.0% 9.0% 0.0% 15.9% 15.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 10.3% 5.3% 2.6% 1.4% 4.3% 0.8% 6.4% Logistic Regression 22.4% 45.9% 33.2% 9.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.1% 4.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
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Thirteen at 11/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.4% 16.3% 10.1% 4.7% 1.2% 9.6% 0.8% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 16.7% 11.5% 4.8% 0.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 16.6% 11.1% 4.7% 0.7% 5.8% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 17.6% 11.5% 8.8% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 9.6% 6.0% 2.8% 0.6% 4.8% 0.4% 0.6% Logistic Regression 11.6% 31.8% 23.0% 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 2.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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