Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fourteen intensity image current Fourteen RI diff image

 


Fourteen at 11/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 4.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 7.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0%
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Fourteen at 11/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 3.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 6.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.9% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.7% Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
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Fourteen at 11/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 2.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 11.4% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.4% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
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Fourteen at 11/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 5.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.6% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.6% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
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Fourteen at 11/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 4.5% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 13.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fourteen at 11/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 4.3% 5.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 5.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 8.5% 6.0% 4.3% 0.2% 7.1% 6.2% 6.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.4% 5.9% 3.8% 0.5% 5.7% 5.1% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 16.7% 13.8% 11.4% 0.0% 19.5% 17.3% 15.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 2.6% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 3.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 8.3% 4.3% 1.5% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 3.7%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
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